美国网友：美国怎么才能破坏中国发展尖端科技和制造业的计划？

近年来，中国科技进步有目共睹，在家电、通信设备、互联网等领域已拥有一席之地。尽管在半导体、医疗器械等领域仍有所不足，但这些短板都已经作为重要的产业方向被纳入中国制造2025战略。分析人士认为，如果中国继续强化这些高科技领域的发展，美国拥有比较优势的科技领先地位将会受到越来越大的挑战。更有人认为，中国将取代美国，成为全球下一个创新中心。

美国之所以要对“中国制造2025”动手，正是要给中国科技和经济发展设障。在这样的背景下，美国网友问：美国怎么才能破坏中国发展尖端科技和制造业的计划？我们看看各国网友的回答。

问题：美国能否破坏中国发展尖端产业的计划？

加拿大网友Raised Ven的回答

No, no one except China can destroy their plans to develop cutting-edge technologies such as "Made in China 2025". If the United States could disrupt anything China wants to achieve, China would not possess nuclear weapons, no one would enter space, and it would not achieve all the economic miracles of today.

不，除了中国自己没人能破坏他们的“中国制造2025”等发展尖端技术的计划。如果美国能够破坏中国想要实现的任何事情，中国就不会拥有核武器，不会有人进入太空，也不会实现今天所有的经济奇迹。

In fact, the current trade war may lead China to realize the distrust and hostility of Americans, and to work harder on its development agenda, becoming more independent of the United States, and establishing more cooperation with other regions of the world.

事实上，当前的贸易战可能会导致中国意识到美国人的不信任和敌意，并在发展议程上更加努力，变得更加独立于美国，并与世界其他地区建立更多的合作。

The domestic market in China has grown so large that they have enough quantity to support the development of advanced technology. Taking their railway technology as an example, because they have a large demand in China, they can rely on internal demand to improve their capabilities. Just like railway technology, initiatives in fields such as MiC2025, robotics, biotechnology, and advanced manufacturing can all leverage the domestic mass market to make progress without external obstacles.

中国的国内市场已经发展得如此之大，以至于他们有足够的数量来支持先进技术的发展。以他们的铁路技术为例，因为他们在国内有大量需求，所以他们能够依靠内部需求来提高自己的能力。就像铁路技术一样，MiC2025、机器人、生物技术、先进制造等领域的举措都可以利用国内大众市场，在没有外部阻碍的情况下取得进展。

In addition to the domestic market, the "the Belt and Road" plus the Shanghai Silk Road Initiative will establish a global supply chain to create more demand for China's high value-added products and services.

除了国内市场外，“一带一路”加上海上丝绸之路倡议将建立一个全球供应链，以创造对中国高附加值产品和服务的更多需求。

My suggestion for China is to establish partnerships with the European Union and Russia on these initiatives. These developed countries are currently more advanced in these key high-tech fields, so people are definitely worried that China will take over these markets. When China matures in these technologies, they should establish alliances with EU/Russian companies to share more business opportunities. When exporting these products and services to countries such as Africa, Southeast Asia, South America, etc., ask the partners of the European Union and Russia to establish more collaborative and win-win partnerships, rather than pure competition.

我唯一建议中国做的就是与欧盟和俄罗斯就这些倡议建立伙伴关系。这些发达国家目前在这些关键的高科技领域更为先进，因此人们肯定担心中国会接管这些市场。当中国在这些技术上成熟时，他们应该与欧盟/俄罗斯公司建立联盟，分享更多的商业机会。当向非洲、东南亚、南美等国家出口这些产品和服务时，请欧盟和俄罗斯的合作伙伴建立更具协作性和双赢的伙伴关系，而不是纯粹的竞争。

To become a leader of a tribe, you cannot just seek food for yourself. You need to support and protect your tribe before someone respects you. Therefore, I hope that China can grow and mature, and realize the importance of partnerships and soft power, especially in Asia, Europe, and the African continent. It can develop into a large-scale integrated and collaborative economy, laying the foundation for a better and more peaceful world.

要成为部落的领袖，你不能只为自己寻找食物，你需要在有人尊重你之前供养和保护你的部落。因此，我希望中国能够成长、成熟，并意识到伙伴关系和软实力的重要性，特别是在亚洲、欧洲和非洲大陆，它能够发展成为一个大规模的一体化和协作经济体，为一个更美好、更和平的世界奠定基础。

海外网友科莫的回答

Here are some things that people don't want to understand. China cannot and will not abandon its "Made in China 2025" plan. For China, this is a long-term economic survival issue, and appeasing the United States in this way will mean stagnant growth and future economic difficulties.

以下是一些人不想去理解的内容。中国不能也不会放弃其“中国制造2025”计划。对中国来说，这是一个长期经济生存的问题，以这种方式安抚美国将意味着增长停滞以及未来的经济困难。

First, introduce some background. When China first announced the "Made in China 2025" plan, China had begun to transform into a consumption driven economy (with high income/advanced economy as the ultimate goal) for several years. Since 2010, wages in export centers such as the Yangtze River Delta and the the Pearl River Delta have been rising rapidly. The same applies to the cost of living and enterprise management expenses.

先介绍一些背景。当中国首次宣布“中国制造2025”计划时，中国已经开始向消费驱动型经济（以高收入/先进经济为最终目标）转型数年。自2010年以来，长江三角洲和珠江三角洲等出口中心的工资一直在快速上涨。生活成本和企业管理费用也是如此。

In the following years, an increasing number of low value-added manufacturing industries steadily shifted from China to lower priced countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh, and in recent years, also to Africa. The transition from an export-oriented economy is a natural process that every developing country must go through in order to become an advanced high-income economy. Japan experienced all of this in the 1970s. Both South Korea and Singapore experienced this situation in the 1980s. China is just the next on the list, despite its unprecedented scale.

在随后的几年里，越来越多的低附加值制造业稳步从中国转移到了印尼、越南、泰国、孟加拉国等价格较低的国家，近年来还转移到了非洲。从出口导向型经济转型是一个自然的过程，每个发展中国家都必须经历这个过程，才能成为一个先进的高收入经济体。日本在70年代经历了这一切。韩国和新加坡在80年代都经历过这种情况。中国只是名单上的下一个，尽管规模之大前所未有。

Now, how does China respond to the constantly changing domestic economic reality mentioned above? By moving up the value chain. China will no longer be a low-cost consumer goods factory with low profit margins and limited ability to sustain economic/income growth for the Chinese people, but will focus on the manufacturing of high value-added products, with innovation being the main driving force for economic growth. Every industrial sector targeted by the 2025 plan belongs to this category. Artificial intelligence/information technology, robotics, aerospace, biotechnology, electric vehicles, renewable energy, precision machinery, everything you can think of.

现在，中国如何应对上述不断变化的国内经济境况？通过向上移动价值链。中国将不再是世界上利润率低、持续维持中国人民经济/收入增长能力有限的廉价消费品工厂，而是专注于高附加值产品的制造，创新是经济增长的主要驱动力。2025计划所针对的每一个工业部门都属于这一类。人工智能/信息技术、机器人、航空航天、生物技术、电动汽车、可再生能源、精密机械，你能想到的都有。

Even the rapid rise and expansion of China's mobile devices and ecosystem in the past few years can be attributed to a shift towards higher value-added goods and services. From a tangent point of view, the "Made in China 2025" plan is actually somewhat similar to the World Bank's outlook for China's sustained economic growth.

即使是中国移动设备和生态系统在过去几年的快速崛起和扩张，也可以归因于向更高附加值商品和服务的转变。从一点切线来看，“中国制造2025”计划实际上与世界银行对中国经济持续增长的展望有些相似。

Returning to the main topic, unfortunately for the United States, many of the aforementioned industries targeted by China happen to be in China's current technologically advanced fields. Generally speaking, the United States does not welcome challengers to its throne, and only reluctantly accepts them when it is an "ally country". Look at Japan and Germany, which are currently targets of the White House crackdown.

回到正题上来，对美国来说，不幸的是，中国瞄准的许多上述行业恰好是中国目前技术领先的领域。一般来说，美国不欢迎挑战者登上其王位，只有当它是“盟友国家”时才会勉强接受。看看日本和德国，这两个国家目前也是白宫打压的目标。

For the United States, maintaining its technological advantage in the core "future industries" coveted by every developed and developing country is crucial, as it will have economic impact on these dependent countries, which will then directly translate into diplomatic influence. There is no altruism here, only cold geopolitical reality.

对美国来说，保持其在每个发达国家和发展中国家都觊觎的核心“未来产业”中的技术优势至关重要，因为这会对这些依赖国家产生经济影响力，然后直接转化为外交影响力。这里没有利他主义，只有冷酷的地缘政治现实。

Nevertheless, it is impossible for China to change its direction and abandon this plan, as doing so is akin to voluntarily relegating itself to the ranks of low-income economies forever, while improving prosperity and the quality of life for the people is never achievable. I don't know which sovereign country would relinquish its right to development in this way, to be honest, they should not do so.

尽管如此，中国根本不可能改变方向放弃这一计划，因为这样做类似于自愿将自己永远降级到低收入经济体的行列，而改善繁荣和群众生活质量永远遥不可及。我不知道有哪个主权国家会以这种方式放弃其发展权利，老实说，他们不应该这样做。

I believe that China should implicitly propose its plan so as not to allow the United States to overreact. China has repeatedly made achieving "technological independence" and becoming a "global innovation leader" the ultimate goals of the plan, but both goals are too distant, at least all industries listed in the plan are unrealistic. The fact is that when China's economy slows down, these statements are actually for domestic consumption, to instill pride and optimism. But when the United States heard of this news, they actually regarded it as a threat to their hegemony.

我认为，中国应该隐晦地提出他的计划，以致不让美国做出过激反应，中国多次将实现“技术独立”和成为“全球创新领导者”作为该计划的最终目标，但这两个目标都太遥远，至少在计划中列出的所有行业都很艰难。事实是，在中国经济放缓之际，这些捶胸顿足的声明实际上是为了国内消费，目的是引起自豪感和乐观主义，但当美国听说这一消息时，他们实际上将其视为对自己霸权地位的威胁。

As I mentioned earlier, when the United States feels threatened, its response is often harsh and powerful. In addition to the sustained economic pressure on Japan and Germany, there are more examples, just take a look at the history of US military intervention.

正如我之前已经提到的，当美国感觉到威胁时，反应往往是严厉和有力的。除了对日本和德国持续的经济压力之外，还有更多的例子，看看美国军事干预的历史就知道了。

In short, China will not abandon the 2025 plan, and the United States may not stop demanding that China terminate the plan. From the perspective of China, this sustained pressure will only forever remind people why they must take the path they choose, so that their economic sovereignty will not continue to be influenced by the capricious actions of the United States. Of course, some short-term economic pain and losses are expected, but in the end, everything is worth it.

一句话，中国不会放弃2025年计划，而美国可能不会停止要求中国终止该计划。从中国的角度来看，这种持续的压力只会永远提醒人们，为什么他们必须走自己选择的道路，这样他们的经济主权就不会继续受到美国的反复无常的影响。当然，一些短期的经济痛苦和损失是意料之中的，但最终一切都是值得的。

中国网友约翰•王的回答

Have you heard of this company?

听说过下面这家公司吗？

They are one of the most famous EPC companies in the world, known for successfully delivering large-scale projects around the world. It is no exaggeration to say that Burke can build the entire city, industrial complex, and power grid from scratch.

他们是世界上最著名的EPC（工程总承包商）公司之一，以在世界各地成功交付大型项目而闻名。毫不夸张地说，柏克德可以从头开始建造整个城市、工业综合体和电网。

Fifty years ago, Burke had already had an excellent resume, including Hoover Dam and BART. In recent years, Bechtel's main projects have included a major excavation in Boston and the English Channel Tunnel connecting the UK and France.

50年前，柏克德就已经有了一份出色的简历，其中包括胡佛大坝和BART。近年来，柏克德的主要项目包括波士顿的大挖掘，以及连接英国和法国的英吉利海峡隧道。

By any standard, it is quite impressive. If you have a difficult civil engineering project and you need it, Bechtel is your preferred contractor. According to ENR data, the company has become the largest contractor in the United States for 21 consecutive years.

无论以何种标准衡量，都相当令人印象深刻。如果你有一个困难的土木工程项目，如果你需要的话，柏克德是你的首选承包商。根据ENR的数据，该公司已连续21年成为美国最大的承包商。

How much revenue did this top American contractor generate last year? Approximately $25.5 billion.

这家美国顶级承包商去年创造了多少收入？约255亿美元。

Now let's cross the Pacific to China, fly from the First World to the Third World, and see China's competitors.

现在让我们穿越太平洋来到中国，从第一世界飞到第三世界，看看中国的竞争对手。

Who is Burke De from China? I bet few people have heard of this company:

谁是中国的柏克德？我敢打赌，很少有人听说过这家公司：

China State Construction Corporation or China State Construction Engineering Corporation.

中国建筑股份有限公司或中国建筑工程总公司。

What was their income in 2019?

他们2019年的收入是多少？

1.2 trillion yuan, or 171 billion US dollars, is equivalent to 7 times the business of Bechtel.

1.2万亿元人民币，或1710亿美元，相当于柏克德业务的7倍。

Completed project list, including the world's first operational Taishan third-generation EPR nuclear power plant. In terms of scale and complexity, this is what very few world-class EPC contractors can achieve.

已完成项目列表，其中包括：世界上第一个运行中的台山第三代EPR核电站。就规模和复杂性而言，这正是极少世界级EPC（工程总承包商）所能做到的，下面都是他的项目。

50 years ago, Burke&Decker was a special company operating in a leading and exclusive atmosphere. After entering the new century for 20 years, the "new rich" in the third world operate on a larger scale and have equally impressive project experience.

50年前，柏克德是一家特殊的公司，因为领先，所以傲慢又排他，要价极高。进入新世纪20年后，第三世界的“新贵”以更大的规模运作，并有同样令人印象深刻的项目经验。

What's the difference this time? They are significantly cheaper and faster, while maintaining standardization.

这次有什么不同？它们明显更便宜、更快，同时保持规范。

This is the same as what you see in the entire industrial field, where China can often rise from the beginning and shake the world. You may know very few Chinese brands, but I bet there are many Chinese made products in ordinary households, especially key components in various electronic products from disposable flashlights to the latest iPhones.

这与你在整个工业领域看到的东西是一样的，中国往往可以起于微末，然后震撼世界。你可能知道的中国品牌很少，但我敢打赌，普通家庭中有很多中国制造的产品，尤其是从一次性手电筒到最新的iphone等各种电子产品中的关键部件。

For decades, China has been providing products that meet specifications at unparalleled prices and speeds. That's why she is a factory in the world that relies entirely on her strength.

几十年来，中国一直以无与伦比的价格和速度提供符合规格的产品。这就是为什么她是世界上完全凭实力的工厂。

I once asked a senior industry insider why companies cannot resist the temptation of China. He explained that it was not a matter of choice. If his competitors transfer his factory to China, he must follow suit, otherwise he will face risks within ten years. In other words, the business model is accelerating with China's production. Unless you have a niche market with a moat and high walls, you will die, even if you are a giant.

我曾经问一位业内资深人士，为什么企业无法抵御中国的诱惑。他解释说这不是一个选择的问题。如果他的竞争对手将他的工厂转移到中国，他必须效仿，否则十年内将面临风险。换言之，商业模式随着中国的生产而加速发展。除非你有一个有护城河和高墙的利基市场，否则你会死的，即使你是个巨无霸。

All statements about intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer are deviant from the norm. Go to a company in China and make a decision with open eyes. They caught up with the prevailing wind, which blew them into the embrace of China.

所有关于知识产权盗窃和强制技术转让的言论都是离经叛道。去中国的公司睁大眼睛做决定。他们赶上了盛行的风，这股风把他们吹进了中国的怀抱。

中国人口结构

Have you noticed an increase in the proportion of people aged 25 to 34? This means that tens of millions of job positions will not be filled by those who closely follow (aged 10-24).

注意到25-34岁人的比例上升了吗？这意味着数以千万计的工作岗位不会被那些紧随其后的人填补（10-24岁）。

China will face a labor shortage in the next decade. Fortunately, this is not a nightmare, as China's current per capita gross domestic product is $10000, which means there are a large number of third world employment opportunities in the economy. It's like assembling an iPhone. Or make plastic flowers. Demographic data tells us that old factories that produce low profit goods will find it difficult to replace labor in tight markets and gradually become outdated. Wages will rise, thanks to more qualified young people improving educational outcomes.

中国可能在未来十年面临劳动力短缺。值得庆幸的是，这并不是一场噩梦，因为中国目前的人均国内生产总值为1万美元，这意味着经济中有大量的第三世界就业机会。就像组装iphone一样。或者制作塑料花。人口统计数据告诉我们，生产低利润商品的老工厂将发现很难在紧张的市场中取代劳动力，并逐渐过时。工资将上涨，这得益于更合格的年轻人改善教育成果。

The inevitable labor tightening will end low-cost industries. This is the real reason why the Chinese themselves are transferring low profit production overseas.

不可避免的劳动力紧缩将终结低成本产业。这就是中国人自己将低利润生产转移到海外的真正原因。

What is Made in China 2025? In short, this is driving self-sufficiency in these key sectors:

中国制造2025是什么？简言之，这是在推动这些关键部门实现自给自足：

中国制造2025十大关键产业部门

Made in China 2025 aims to increase the domestic content of core components and materials to 40% by 2020 and 70% by 2025.

中国制造 2025旨在到2020年将核心部件和材料的国内含量提高到40%，到2025年提高到70%。

Anyway, due to changes in the labor structure, the economy must develop to that extent to adapt. Made in China is not about Chinese brands occupying the world. On the contrary, this is about Chinese brands developing local technologies to compete more prominently in the domestic market. This is no different from any country. Toyota and Panasonic dominate the Japanese market, as do LG and Samsung in South Korea, as well as General Motors and Apple in the United States.

无论如何，由于劳动力结构的变化，经济就必须发展到那个程度来适应。中国制造不是中国品牌占领世界。相反，这是关于中国品牌开发本土技术，以在国内市场上更突出地竞争。这与任何国家都没有什么不同。丰田和松下在日本市场占据主导地位，韩国的LG和三星以及美国的通用汽车和苹果也是如此。

There is nothing sinister about Made in China 2025, but it will make Chinese brands more eye-catching. This leads to the brand of "easy money making". That's why Chinese architecture is not under attack like Huawei.

中国制造2025并没有什么险恶之处，只是它将使中国品牌更加引人注目。这就切入了“轻松赚钱”的品牌。这就是为什么中国建筑不像华为那样受到攻击。