深圳二手房挂牌暴跌80%，房企何去何从？The future of real estate？

深圳二手房挂牌量大跌77.92% Second-hand housing listings in Shenzhen plummeted 77.92%

深圳新版二手房交易网签系统（下称“新版网签系统”）上线近三个月，二手房在售挂牌量连月下降，且降幅逐渐扩大。“双调控”影响市场各方预期，深圳二手房网签及过户量均在1月创下新低，双双逼近1500套关口。

Shenzhen's new version of the second-hand housing transaction online signature system (hereinafter referred to as the "new version of the online signature system") has been launched for nearly three months. "Double regulation and control" affects the expectations of all parties in the market. The online signing and transfer of second-hand housing in Shenzhen hit a new low in January, both approaching the 1,500-unit mark.

深圳新版网签系统于2021年11月19日面市。根据乐有家、Q房网、贝壳找房、中原地产等四大主流中介机构的公开挂牌数据统计，截至当年11月30日，深圳挂牌出售的二手房源约14.49万套，环比减少2.4%。

Shenzhen's new online signature system will be launched on November 19, 2021. According to the public listing statistics of four mainstream intermediaries including Leyoujia, Qfang.com, Shell Search, and Centaline Real Estate, as of November 30 of that year, there were about 144,900 second-hand houses listed for sale in Shenzhen, a decrease of 2.4% from the previous month.

截至2022年2月8日，深圳挂牌出售的二手房源仅剩3.20万套，与2021年11月底相比，挂牌量大跌77.92%。

As of February 8, 2022, there were only 32,000 second-hand houses listed for sale in Shenzhen. Compared with the end of November 2021, the number of listings dropped by 77.92%.

2021年之前，深圳业内将月度5000套作为二手房市场枯荣线。而从2021年8月起，深圳二手房成交量连续数月在2000套上下浮动。及至2021年10月，二手房网签量与过户量双双触底，分别降至1777套、1605套。2022年1月，这两个指标再度创下新低，严重低于枯荣线。

Before 2021, the Shenzhen industry will use 5,000 units per month as the boom line of the second-hand housing market. Since August 2021, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen has fluctuated around 2,000 units for several consecutive months. As of October 2021, the number of second-hand housing online signatures and transfers have both bottomed out, dropping to 1,777 units and 1,605 units, respectively. In January 2022, these two indicators hit new lows again, seriously below the dry-boom line.

“房住不炒”的调控是暂时的吗？ Is the real estate control policy temporary?

2021年，房地产行业遭遇了重大的挫折，许多巨鳄房企纷纷暴雷，不少地方房价下跌，二手房交易市场低迷。“房住不炒”这个政策喊了五六年，到今天终于靴子落地，板子打疼了不少人。

In 2021, the real estate industry has encountered major setbacks. Many giant real estate companies have experienced thunderstorms, housing prices in many places have fallen, and the second-hand housing transaction market has been sluggish. The real estate control policy has been shouted for five or six years. Today, the boots finally hit the ground, and the board hurts many people.

不过，很多人依然抱有幻想，认为这股调控是暂时的， 忍忍就过去了， 因为过去十多年一直是这样来的，政府调控越猛，楼价上涨越快。但这一次，也许不能心存侥幸了。

However, many people still have the illusion that this regulation is temporary, and patience is over, because it has been like this for more than ten years. The more severe the government's regulation, the faster the price rise. But this time, it may not be a fluke.

要说今年房地产的最大新闻，应该是恒大暴雷了。先是因债务风险，被央行约谈， 接着理财产品到期，却兑付不了。不少恒大楼盘还被迫停工，恒大掌门人许家印不得不立军令状，要保交付，甚至传出他卖自己国内外的奢华资产来支持公司运转等。

To say the biggest news in real estate this year, it should be the thunderstorm of Evergrande. First, he was interviewed by the central bank due to debt risks, and then the wealth management product expired, but could not be paid. Many Evergrande projects were also forced to suspend work. Xu Jiayin, the head of Evergrande, had to issue a military order to ensure delivery. It was even rumored that he sold his luxury assets at home and abroad to support the operation of the company.

虽然恒大的倒下已成注定，但仍然有很多“乐观派”认为房地产这波调控会有新转向，不会一直这么紧。因为房地产在中国地位非常特殊，过去 20 多年，经历过很多轮调控，但往往是越调越涨，泡沫越挤越大。

Although the fall of Evergrande is doomed, there are still many "optimists" who believe that this wave of real estate regulation will have a new turn and will not be so tight all the time. Because the status of real estate in China is very special, in the past 20 years, there have been many rounds of regulation, but often the higher the regulation, the higher the bubble, the bigger the bubble.

所以，根据过往经验，无论多严格的调控，过一段时间就会过去。因此，有些人理所当然认为这次也不例外，只要再忍一忍，春天就会到来。

Therefore, according to past experience, no matter how strict the regulation is, it will pass over a period of time. Therefore, some people take it for granted that this time is no exception, as long as you endure a little longer, spring will come.

不过我们认为，今天房地产的一个大变局可不是那么简单，它的掉头向下其实有着深刻的历史必然性。在这个历史节点，传统“靠融资杠杆扩张”的老路已经行不通了。

However, we believe that a major change in real estate today is not that simple, and its turn down actually has a profound historical inevitability. At this historical node, the traditional "expansion by financing leverage" is no longer feasible.

城市化放缓，供求过剩让房企增长失去动力 Slowing urbanization, excess supply and demand

随着城市化放缓，房子已经过剩了。二十多年来，房地产本质上是城市化推动起来的。

As urbanization slows, there is a glut of housing. For more than two decades, real estate has been driven by urbanization in nature.

从2000年到2019年，我国的城市化率从36%增加到了60%，有将近4亿人进城，创造了前所未有的居住需求。从大城市到小城镇，大量的房子被盖起来。不少房地产企业，利用高杠杆、快周转，在很多地方复制产品线，再通过集团化管控，迅速成为巨头。恒大就是这么成长起来的。

From 2000 to 2019, my country's urbanization rate has increased from 36% to 60%, and nearly 400 million people have entered the city, creating an unprecedented demand for housing. From big cities to small towns, a large number of houses were built. Many real estate companies, using high leverage and fast turnover, replicated product lines in many places, and then quickly became giants through group management and control. This is how Evergrande grew up.

不过，从2018年开始，我国的城镇化率增速已经不到1%，未来要快起来也很难。同时，房子总量已经绝对过剩了。根据国家统计，2019年，我国城镇居民的住房拥有率达96%，人均住房面积达到40平米左右，已经是发达国家水平。

However, since 2018, the growth rate of my country's urbanization rate has been less than 1%, and it will be difficult to speed up in the future. At the same time, the total number of houses has been absolutely surplus. According to national statistics, in 2019, the housing ownership rate of urban residents in my country reached 96%, and the per capita housing area reached about 40 square meters, which is already the level of developed countries.

你可能会疑惑，很多人还没买房子，怎么就过剩了呢？

You may be wondering, many people haven't bought a house yet, so why is there a surplus?

就是因为有的人是好几套房，甚至几十套，上百套房的人大有人在，而没房的人在统计中“被平均”了。其实，这些没房的人，如果不只盯着大城市，很有可能也买得起房，中国不是有三线四线，还有五线城市吗？

It is because some people have several or even dozens of houses, there are many people with hundreds of houses, and the people who do not have houses are "averaged" in the statistics. In fact, if these people who don't have a house, if they not only focus on the big cities, they are likely to be able to afford a house. Isn't there a third-tier, fourth-tier, and fifth-tier city in China?

从总量统计看，房子是过剩的。这意味着整个市场空间已经逐渐饱和，不可能支撑房企高增长了。因为没有了这个大池子，再靠高杠杆、规模化也玩不转了。

From the total statistics, there is a surplus of houses. This means that the entire market space has been gradually saturated, and it is impossible to support the high growth of housing enterprises. Because without this big pool, it is impossible to rely on high leverage and scale.

房地产未来走向“一回归，一托盘” The future of real estate

在共同富裕的大背景下， 房地产的未来已经很明确，简单来说就是“一回归，一托盘”。“一回归”就是房地产行业的属性要从金融回归到民生上来，让“居者有其屋”。

In the context of common prosperity, the future of real estate has been very clear. Simply put, it is "one return, one pallet". "One return" means that the attributes of the real estate industry should return from finance to people's livelihood, so that "homeowners have their own homes".

未来我国可能会选择走“新加坡模式”，整个房地产市场呈现“631 格局”。 也就是说，60%的住房是政府保障性住房，20%～30%是国有企业内部的福利房，10%，最多 20%，是具有投资、金融属性的高端住宅。

In the future, my country may choose to follow the "Singapore model", and the entire real estate market will present a "631 pattern". In other words, 60% of the housing is government-subsidized housing, 20% to 30% is welfare housing within state-owned enterprises, and 10%, up to 20%, is high-end housing with investment and financial attributes.

“一托盘”，就是让国有房地产企业来兜底。它们有良好的信用资质，融资成本不高。在这一轮调整中，保持了不错的财务状况，未来会逐渐掌握主动权。有这“一托盘”兜底，国家就更坚定了调控的信心。

"One tray" is to let state-owned real estate enterprises come to the bottom. They have good credit qualifications and financing costs are not high. In this round of adjustment, we have maintained a good financial position and will gradually take the initiative in the future. With this "one tray" to cover the bottom line, the country will strengthen its confidence in regulation.

民营房企何去何从？What should private real estate companies do?

如果未来房地产市场由国有房地产企业兜底，那么民营房企该何去何从？大致有三个选项：

If the future real estate market is dominated by state-owned real estate companies, where should private real estate companies go? There are roughly three options:

第一个选项，就是当你觉得自己并不具备持续竞争的核心能力的时候，主动退出这个市场，转战其他行业。

The first option is to take the initiative to withdraw from this market and move to other industries when you feel that you do not have the core ability to continue to compete.

第二个选项，民营房企在这个行业深耕了多年，积累了许多心得和其他的能力，比如说服务能力，其实在这个行业还有许多空间可以发挥的。

The second option, private housing companies have been cultivating in this industry for many years, and have accumulated a lot of experience and other capabilities, such as service capabilities. In fact, there is still a lot of room for development in this industry.

因为进入存量市场后，很多人需要养老、养生、教育、社区服务等等方面提供完善的服务。而特别优秀的地产公司，在这点上是具备优势的，这也是一个巨大的空间。

Because after entering the stock market, many people need to provide comprehensive services in pension, health care, education, community services, etc. Especially excellent real estate companies have advantages in this regard, and this is also a huge space.

第三个选项，对于有志于在地产行业再继续深耕的企业来说，应该从昨天“卖产品”转换为明天的“卖生活”。中国社会发展到今天，已经进入了一个粗放地卖产品，进入了一种高质量地卖生活的转换。地产在这点有巨大的空间和先天的优势。

The third option, for companies that are interested in continuing to develop in the real estate industry, should switch from "selling products" yesterday to "selling life" tomorrow. With the development of Chinese society today, it has entered a transition of selling products extensively and selling life with high quality. Real estate has huge space and inherent advantages at this point.

深圳二手房挂牌量三个月内累计下跌近八成，1月成交量创新低，双调控”对房地产市场造成重大打击。但依然有很多人认为对房地产市场的调控是暂时的，过去 20 多年，经历过很多轮调控，但往往是越调越涨，泡沫越挤越大。

The number of second-hand housing listings in Shenzhen has dropped by nearly 80% in three months, and the transaction volume in January hit a new low. The “double regulation and control” has caused a major blow to the real estate market. However, many people still believe that the regulation of the real estate market is temporary. In the past 20 years, It has gone through many rounds of regulation, but it tends to get higher and higher, and the bubbles get bigger and bigger.

但我们认为这一次不一样，因为随着城市化放缓，房子已经过剩，而且中央坚定执行“房住不炒”的政策，政府一方面努力做到“居者有其屋”，另一方面国有房地产企业来兜底市场。民营房企如果要生存，必须改变以往高杠杆、快周转的经营方式，深耕服务，从“卖房子”过渡到“卖生活。

But we think this time is different, because with the slowdown of urbanization, there is already a surplus of houses, and the central government firmly implements the real estate control policy. State-owned real estate companies come to the bottom of the market. If private real estate enterprises want to survive, they must change the previous high-leverage and fast-turnover business mode, deepen their service, and transition from "selling houses" to "selling life.