华尔街日报——阿富汗问题都没解决，美国又跑东南亚来闹事？

A trip by Vice President Kamala Harris to Southeast Asia will give the Biden administration an opportunity to put the focus back on countering China at a time when the U.S.’s chaotic exit from Afghanistan is raising questions about Washington’s reliability as an ally. Ms. Harris’s visits to Singapore and Vietnam will be the culmination of months of diplomatic outreach to the region, underscoring a shift in priorities away from the war on terror and toward containment of competing powers.

美国副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)对东南亚的访问将给拜登政府一个机会，将重点重新放在对抗中国上。目前，美国从阿富汗混乱的撤军引发了人们对华盛顿作为盟友的可靠性的质疑。哈里斯对新加坡和越南的访问，将是几个月来与该地区外交接触的高潮，突显出重点从反恐战争转向遏制竞争大国。

During her trip, Ms. Harris is expected to focus on global health, economic partnerships and security in the region, according to senior administration officials. She will deliver a speech in Singapore detailing her vision for the Indo-Pacific and launch a Southeast Asia regional office for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Vietnam. Ms. Harris will also meet with government officials and business leaders to speak about supply-chain issues. The Biden administration has been working to address a global semiconductor shortage, which has caused production slowdowns from appliances to computers and cars.

据美国政府高级官员说，哈里斯此行预计将重点关注全球卫生、经济伙伴关系和该地区的安全问题。她将在新加坡发表演讲，详细阐述她对印度-太平洋地区的愿景，并在越南设立美国疾病控制与预防中心(cdc)东南亚地区办事处。哈里斯还将会见政府官员和商界领袖，讨论供应链问题。拜登政府一直在努力解决导致家电、电脑、汽车等领域生产放缓的全球半导体短缺问题。

A surge in Covid-19 cases in the largely unvaccinated region has also led to lockdowns in countries including Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia—major exporters of electronics and other goods—that forced factory closures and further disrupted global supply chains. U.S. business representatives have pressed the Biden administration to accelerate aid to the region. More broadly, support from governments in the region is critical to the U.S.’s long-term interests in the Indo-Pacific region。

在这个基本上未接种疫苗的地区，Covid-19病例的激增还导致越南、泰国和马来西亚等电子产品和其他产品的主要出口国实施封锁，迫使工厂关闭，进一步扰乱了全球供应链。美国商界代表敦促拜登政府加快对该地区的援助。更广泛地说，该地区各国政府的支持对美国在印太地区的长期利益至关重要。

“There’s a perception in Washington that China has been earning a lot of points lately, so there is a sense of urgency.” Ms. Harris is tasked with repairing relationships that eroded under former President Donald Trump, analysts say. During his term, several ambassador posts were left empty for long periods and attendance at regional forums was greatly reduced, which was widely perceived as a snub. But Southeast Asia’s gradual drift away from Washington goes back further, to ex-President Barack Obama’s unfinished “Asia rebalance” policy. Key agreements reached during his presidency stalled early on, including a major trade agreement with Pacific nations and an enhanced defense pact with the Philippines.

“华盛顿有一种感觉，认为中国最近赢得了很多积分，所以有一种紧迫感。”分析人士表示，哈里斯的任务是修复在前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)任内受损的关系。在他的任期内，几个大使职位长期空着，参加区域论坛的人数大大减少，这被广泛认为是一种冷落。但东南亚逐渐远离华盛顿的趋势可以追溯到更早的时候，即美国前总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)尚未完成的“亚洲再平衡”政策。奥巴马总统任期内达成的主要协议很早就陷入僵局，其中包括与太平洋国家达成的一项重要贸易协议，以及与菲律宾达成的一项加强版防务协议。

Even as ties improve, there will be limits, analysts say. The challenge for Ms. Harris will be not only to convince her Southeast Asian counterparts that Washington is a reliable partner, but that they are seen as more than pawns in a great power struggle. Regional leaders including Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong have long voiced resistance to choosing sides. Aaron Connelly, a Singapore-based researcher with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank, said smaller countries confronted with a rising power typically have three options: They align with it, hedge, or balance against it by siding with its adversary. “Most countries in Southeast Asia are hedging,” Mr. Connelly said. “In the shortterm, none of these countries are going to get off the fence and side with the U.S., but they can be persuaded to make choices on discrete issues in ways that favor the U.S.”

分析人士说，即使两国关系有所改善，也会有限制。哈里斯面临的挑战不仅是要让东南亚国家相信华盛顿是一个可靠的合作伙伴，而且还要让他们明白，在一场巨大的权力斗争中，他们不仅仅被视为卒子。包括新加坡总理李显龙(Lee Hsien Loong)在内的地区领导人长期以来一直表示反对选择立场。总部位于伦敦的智库国际战略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)驻新加坡研究员康奈利(Aaron Connelly)说，面对一个正在崛起的大国，较小的国家通常有三种选择:与之结盟、对冲或通过站在对手一边来制衡它。“东南亚的大多数国家都在对冲，”康奈利说。“短期内，这些国家都不会跳出围栏，站在美国一边，但他们可以被说服在个别问题上做出有利于美国的选择。”

Ms. Harris will build on the momentum of earlier visits by other senior U.S. officials, pledging increased cooperation on healthcare, economic recovery and regional security. Over the past five years, Beijing has built up a massive presence by militarizing artificial islands and using civilian fleets, widely regarded as maritime militias, to occupy new areas and advance its claims.

哈里斯女士将在其他美国高级官员早些时候访问的势头上再接再厉，承诺在医疗保健、经济复苏和地区安全方面加强合作。分析人士说，美国在该地区更全面的军事存在可以防止进一步的入侵，并防止双方都不希望的局势升级。美国史汀生中心(Stimson Center)国防战略与规划项目的研究员詹姆斯·西本斯(James Siebens)说，“这是通过否认来威慑，这就是它的全部意义:确保中国永远不会认为他们会被忽视，或者能够在没有回应的情况下开发有争议的领土。”