为何北京支持朝美谈判的态度很稳定

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China supports N.Korea-US direct talks

The North Korea-US summit kicked off Wednesday night in Hanoi, Vietnam, garnering the attention of the world. There is symbolic significance to have this meeting convened in Hanoi. Despite being a staunch foe of the US in the past, Vietnam now has the best relations with the US among all socialist countries. "Vietnam is thriving like few places on earth. North Korea would be the same, and very quickly, if it would denuclearize," US President Donald Trump tweeted ahead of the meeting. The change of Vietnam from US enemy to friend is appealing to North Korea.

朝美首脑会晤27日在越南首都河内开启，吸引了全球目光。这次会晤放在河内，让人们感到了一定的寓意。越南目前是社会主义国家里与美国关系最好的，而越美曾经是不共戴天的敌人。特朗普日前表示，如果朝鲜弃核，它也会像目前蓬勃发展的越南一样成功。越南从美国的敌人成为美国的好友，这样的转变应该对朝鲜也有吸引力。

For socialist countries to advance reform and opening-up, they must develop relations with the West, especially the US. Like Vietnam, if North Korea wants to develop its economy, it must first improve relations with the US. North Korea's neighboring countries, such as China and South Korea, all support North Korea taking the step.

社会主义国家改革开放，需要与西方、尤其是美国发展关系，越南与美国化敌为友，这样的转变方向并没有太多特殊之处。朝鲜要全面发展经济，改善同美国的关系也是要过的一关。在朝鲜的周边国家里，从中国到韩国也都对美朝关系的改善持赞成态度。

Because of Vietnam's geopolitical significance, the US treats Vietnam better than other socialist countries. Vietnam is one of the major countries in Southeast Asia and has territorial disputes with China. Strengthening relations with Vietnam could bolster the US policy toward China. But Vietnam is a socialist country. It won't relax vigilanceagainst US political subversion. No matter how close Vietnam-US relations, it will never become a US ally like Singapore or South Korea.

美国对越南比对其他社会主义国家都更好，这是越南的地缘政治价值推动的：它是东南亚的主要力量之一，与中国有领土纠纷，加强美越关系有利于支持美国的对华政策。但越南是社会主义国家，防止美国政治颠覆又是其永远不能放松的警惕，所以越南与美国走得再近，也成为不了新加坡、韩国那样的美国盟友。

North Korea intends to improve its relationship with the US. However, North Korea's domestic politics has a more serious conflict with the US system and its geopolitical environment is quite different from that of Vietnam.

朝鲜改善和发展同美国的关系，其国内政治与美国的体制冲突更加严重，其地缘政治环境则与越南截然不同。

Among Northeast Asian countries, North Korea has the smallest population. Its improvement of relations with the US faces a complicated influence from the US-South Korea alliance. The two Koreas are of the same ethnic group and it is an aspiration of South Korea to lead the unification of the Korean Peninsula.

朝鲜是东北亚人口规模最小的国家，它与美国改善关系面临美韩同盟的复杂影响。朝韩同族，以首尔主导统一朝鲜半岛是韩国上下的公开愿景。

In other words, the best relationship that North Korea and the US could have is one like the US-Vietnam relationship. But constrained by the factors mentioned above, it's difficult for the US and North Korea to make their relations reach the level of that between the US and Vietnam.

也就是说，朝美关系的上限恐怕就是越美关系了，由于上述内外因素的牵制，达到越美关系的水平也将是有难度的。

Despite territorial disputes, China is Vietnam's largest trading partner. The party-to-party relationship has played a special role in bilateral ties and is of great significance in maintaining Vietnam's long-term stability. It also has served as the biggest external driving force for Vietnam's economic development.

越南虽与中国有领土之争，但中国是它的第一大贸易伙伴，有两党关系提供特殊支持的中越关系对越南长期保持政治稳定有重要意义，也是越南经济发展最庞大的外部资源。

Vietnam won't develop its relations with the US at the cost of that with China. It's in Vietnam's best interests to develop relations simultaneously with both countries. China's other neighboring countries will also make such a choice.

越南不会为了越美关系而损害越中关系，同时发展与中美两大国的关系最符合越南利益，这也越来越会成为中国周边国家的共同选择。

It's assumed by some that an improved US-North Korea relationship will eventually undermine the China-North Korea relationship and advancing denuclearization process means more uncertainties in China-North Korea relations. Such views were particularly popular in 2017 and the beginning of 2018.

中外都有一些人提出过这样的假设：朝美改善关系将最终损害中朝关系，半岛无核化的推进过程将同时意味着中朝关系不确定性的增加。在2017年和2018年年初的时候，这样的说法尤其多。

The China-North Korea summit in 2018 was held before North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's meetings with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Trump. The rapidly restored China-North Korea ties made that speculation fade. But it hasn't vanished. Some Americans suspected that Beijing want to undermine the negotiation process between Washington and Pyongyang. Such a suspicion was based on the same mistaken idea that China harbors jealousy toward any improvement in US-North Korea ties.

中朝峰会2018年先于朝韩及朝美峰会举行，以及中朝关系迅速恢复，让那种猜测失去了热度。但它并没有完全消失，去年美方怀疑北京破坏美朝谈判进程，与怀疑中国妒忌美朝改善关系，所依据的思维逻辑是相似的。

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