稳外贸进行时③ 逆势增长！中国-东盟贸易的背后逻辑（中英文）
Logic behind the growth against trend of China-ASEAN trade
文 《一带一路报道》记者 向雯
地缘相近，文缘相通。从历史中携手走来的中国与东盟，随着人文交流、经贸合作等领域的不断深入，双方关系愈加紧密。2020年一季度，东盟一举超过欧盟和美国，成为中国最大的贸易伙伴。6月7日，海关总署最新数据显示，前5个月，中国与东盟贸易总值达1.7万亿元，同比增长4.2%，占中国外贸总值的14.7%。
Being each other’s neighbors, China and ASEAN share a lot in common culturally. Rooted in history, China-ASEAN relationship has become closer and closer with the deepening of mutual people-to-people exchange and economic cooperation. In the first quarter of 2020, ASEAN surpassed the EU and the United States as China’s largest trading partner. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on June 7, the foreign trade value between China and ASEAN reached 1.7 trillion yuan, registering a year-on-year rise of 4.2 percent and accounting for 14.7 percent of China’s total foreign trade value.
当下，疫情的影响还在持续，逆全球化的思潮涌动，中国与东盟贸易数据增长的背后，体现出怎样的逻辑？实际上，在“黑天鹅”事件频发的2020年，中国-东盟快速增长的数据既在意料之外，又在情理之中。
At the moment when the epidemic outbreak is still spreading and the anti-globalization is resurfacing, what is the logic behind the rising trade figures between China and ASEAN? The fast growing China-ASEAN trade in a year of multiple “black swan” events may seem unexpected, but is actually within the bounds of reason.
4月21日，中国政府在雅加达东盟秘书处大楼向东盟秘书处捐赠一批防疫物资（新华社记者 杜宇 摄）
密切的双边经贸合作
Close bilateral economic cooperation
1月31日，英国正式脱离欧盟。中英贸易约占中欧贸易额的十分之一，受英国“脱欧”影响，中欧贸易相对下滑；与此同时，美国疫情持续发酵，国际需求急剧萎缩。在此背景下，受疫情影响相对较小的东盟超越欧盟和美国成为中国最大的贸易伙伴并不意外。
On January 31, the United Kingdom exited the EU officially. As China-United Kingdom trade accounted for one tenth of China-Europe trade, the Brexit has caused a drop in China-Europe trade. At the same time, as COVID-19 takes hold in the United States, there is a drastic fall in the global demand of the world’s largest economy. Against the backdrop, it is not surprising to see ASEAN, a region relatively less influenced by COVID-19, surpass the EU and the United States as China’s largest trading partner.
相关数据显示，截至6月11日，东盟十国新冠肺炎确诊病例数占海外国家确诊病例总数的比重仅为1.47%，死亡率低于海外平均水平。疫情对东盟国家的冲击远低于欧美国家，这为中国-东盟地区实现外贸增长提供了重要保障。
As of June 11, the number of confirmed cases of ten ASEAN countries only made up 1.47 percent of that of foreign countries, and the mortality was lower than foreign average. It can be seen that ASEAN countries are less hit than European countries and the United States, thereby providing a key guarantee for the growth of China-ASEAN trade.
一艘货轮停靠在广西钦州港等待装卸集装箱（新华社记者 曹祎铭 摄）
事实上，2019年，东盟就已跃居中国第二大贸易伙伴，中国也连续11年保持东盟第一大贸易伙伴地位。自1991年中国与东盟建立对话伙伴关系以来，双方的合作不断加速。2003年建立战略伙伴关系，2010年建成中国-东盟自由贸易区，2013年至今共建“一带一路”。可以看到，双方的经贸合作愈加紧密，贸易额也持续增长。
In fact, ASEAN had become China’s second largest trading partner in 2019, and China remained ASEAN’s largest trading partner for 11 years in a row. Since the establishment of mutual dialogue partnership between China and ASEAN in 1991, the cooperation has been speeding up. Specifically, China and ASEAN forged strategic partnership in 2003; China–ASEAN Free Trade Area was established in 2010; ASEAN started to pursue the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) together with China since 2013. It can be seen that China-ASEAN economic and trade cooperation has grown closer and closer with rising bilateral trade volume.
“中国与东盟国家比邻而居，经济互补性强，合作空间广、潜力大。”中国-东盟商务理事会执行理事长许宁宁认为，近20年来，中国-东盟在互联互通、产业、金融等领域开展了一系列富有成效的合作，均推动了双方贸易往来。
“China and ASEAN countries are neighbors, and highly complementary in economy, so there are great cooperation scope and potential out there.” said Xu Ningning, executive director of China-ASEAN Business Council (CABC). He believes that, over the past twenty years, China and ASEAN have carried out a series of fruitful cooperation in connectivity, industry, finance and more, which have promoted bilateral trade exchanges.
日前，世界经济论坛报告《未来快速增长的消费市场：东盟》显示，东盟已成为世界上经济增长速度最快的地区之一。预计到2030年，东盟将成为世界第四大经济体，GDP将达到4.5万亿美元。
As shown in the Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: ASEAN released by the World Economic Forum the other day, ASEAN has become one of the regions in the world registering the fastest economic growth rate. By 2030, ASEAN is expected to become the world’s fourth largest economy with a GDP of USD 4.5 trillion.
商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院学术委员会副主任张建平认为，随着中国和东盟深化经济合作，未来双方经贸合作潜力巨大，对于我国稳外贸起到重要支撑作用。
In the opinion of Zhang Jianping, deputy director of Academic Steering Committee, Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Ministry of Commerce, as China and ASEAN deepen economic cooperation, mutual economic and trade cooperation will enjoy more and more potential, and play a pillar role in stabilizing China’s foreign trade.
4月9日，东盟国家外交部部长以视频会议的方式举行了东盟协调委员会（ACC）第25次会议（图 国际在线）
即使在疫情期间，中国与东盟也互动频频。2—3月，针对新冠肺炎疫情，中国-东盟先后两次举办相关会议；5月29日，中国与东盟发表《中国-东盟经贸部长关于抗击新冠肺炎疫情加强自贸合作的联合声明》，决心共同抗击疫情、加强自贸合作；6月4日，在东盟与中日韩（10+3）抗击新冠肺炎疫情经贸部长特别会议上，各国经贸部门负责人一致认为，继续加强地区抗疫和经贸合作、拉紧贸易投资合作纽带、稳步提升地区产业链供应链对持续推进区域经济一体化具有重要意义。
Even during the epidemic, China and ASEAN have maintained frequent exchanges. For example, from February to March, China and ASEAN had held two special meetings on epidemic prevention and control; on May 29, China and ASEAN announced together the ASEAN-China Economic Ministers’ Joint Statement on Combating the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and Enhancing ACFTA Cooperation, determining to fight COVID-19 together and enhancing ACFTA cooperation; on June 4, Special ASEAN Plus Three Economic Ministers’ Meeting on COVID-19 Response was held at which all economic ministers agreed the key role of further strengthening regional epidemic containment and economic cooperation, consolidating the trade investment and cooperation bond and improving regional industry chain and supply chain in advancing economic integration.
2019年4月12日， 越南边民在广西东兴口岸自助办理入境手续（新华社记者 周华 摄）
重点商品的优势互补
Advantage complementarity of key products
如何稳步提升东盟地区产业链供应链？如何持续推进区域经济一体化？发挥相关国家各自的优势，通过“龙头”带动作用提升经贸水平是关键。
How to improve ASEAN’s industry chain and supply chain? How to advance regional economic integration? The key is to press home each country’s leadership and strength to upgrade economic level.
数据显示，一季度中国对越南的进出口规模位居东盟各国首位，比重达25.8%，进出口同比增长18%；中国对马来西亚外贸增幅一季度同比增长7.6%。越南和马来西亚拉动中国对东盟外贸整体增长5.6%。
In the first quarter, China-Vietnam foreign trade volume ranked first among ASEAN countries, accounting for 25.8 percent of the total and registering a year-on-year rise of 18 percent; China-Malaysia foreign trade volume grew by 7.6 percent year on year. Vietnam and Malaysia combined to pull China-ASEAN foreign trade volume up by 5.6 percent.
根据全球产业链发展的规律，地理位置优越、劳动力资源丰富的越南在过去十年实现制造业快速发展。目前来看，越南的产业链与中国融合程度较高，有望进一步与中国产业链形成深度融合和配套服务体系，在承接产业转移的趋势上，具备长期发展的潜力。
According to the development law of global industry chain, Vietnam has achieved take-off in manufacturing in the past decade by virtue of prime geographical location and abundant labor resources. In terms of industry chain, Vietnam shares great complementarity with China. In the future, Vietnam is expected to deepen integration and build a supporting service system with China in this regard, and enjoys long-term potential in undertaking industrial transfer.
广西凭祥友谊关口岸（新华社记者 曹祎铭 摄）
从贸易流动看，马来西亚连续十年成为中国在东盟最大贸易伙伴。在马来西亚中资企业总商会秘书长、中电建亚太区总部总经理刘绍泉看来，虽然疫情对马来西亚经济造成重创，但是针对恢复经济，马来西亚提出了一整套相关计划，主要集中在发展电子设备、化学工程、机电设备、医疗设备、航空等等，将继续给到外资企业优惠政策。
In terms of trade movement, Malaysia has remained China’s largest trading partner in ASEAN for a decade in a row. In the view of Liu Shaoquan, secretary general of China Enterprises Chamber of Commerce in Malaysia and general manager of the Asia-Pacific Headquarters of the Power Construction Corporation of China, although the outbreak has dealt a hard blow to the Malaysian economy, Malaysia has put forward a complete set of related plans to advance economic recovery. Most of the plans are on developing electronic equipment, chemical engineering, electromechanical equipment, medical equipment, aviation and more, and will continue to provide incentive policies for foreign enterprises.
近年来，东盟国家制造业和消费需求增长迅速。集成电路进出口、能源贸易成为中国-东盟双边贸易的“重头戏”。
Over the past years, ASEAN countries have seen fast growing manufacturing and consumption demand. Among others, integrated circuit and energy have become the highlights of China-ASEAN bilateral trade.
今年一季度，中国对东盟的集成电路贸易增幅较大，拉动中国和东盟的进出口贸易整体增长3.3%。作为全球半导体产业链的一部分，越南、新加坡、马来西亚等东盟国家与中国的集成电路进出口贸易日趋紧密。
In the first quarter of this year, China-ASEAN trade of integrated circuit enjoyed a marked increase, driving the total China-ASEAN foreign trade volume up by 3.3 percent. As a part of the global semiconductor industry chain, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia and other ASEAN countries are increasingly engaged with China in integrated circuit import and export trade.
位于北部湾的广西北海市铁山港（新华社记者 周华 摄）
在要素禀赋上，中国和东盟存在差异，各具特点，存在明显的贸易互补性。东盟国家在林业、能源、矿石等自然资源方面存在较大优势。疫情发生后，中国向东盟国家大量进口煤炭、原油等能源产品，并向其出口急需的成品油。一季度，中国-东盟能源贸易合作对中国与东盟的贸易整体拉动率达1.7%。
In terms of factor endowments, China and ASEAN have their own characteristics and enjoy obvious complementarities in trade. Specifically, ASEAN countries boast great advantages in natural resources like forestry, energy and ore. After the outbreak, China imported a large number of coal, crude oil and other energy products from ASEAN countries, and exported badly-needed refined oil products to ASEAN countries. In the first quarter of this year, China-ASEAN energy trade cooperation pulled the overall China-ASEAN trade volume up by 1.7 percent.
作为中国最重要的电力工程承包市场之一，双方的电力工程合作项目拉动了中国对东盟国家的机电产品出口。尽管前4个月中国机电产品出口增长总体有所回落，同比下降5.9%，但中国对东盟的机电产品出口却逆势增长，同比增速达28%。
ASEAN is one of China’s most important power engineering contracting markets, and China-ASEAN power engineering cooperation projects have boosted China’s mechanical and electrical product exports to ASEAN. Although China suffered a slide in mechanical and electrical product exports in the first four months this year, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.9 percent, China exported more mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN countries, with a year-on-year growth of 28 percent.
重点商品进出口的大幅增加拉动了中国对东盟外贸整体的增长，促使中国与东盟双边贸易结构持续优化。未来，从经济增长前景、劳动力供给和成本、双边国际分工以及区域经济一体化等方面来看，中国和东盟贸易发展前景依然广阔。
The impressive rise in the foreign trade volume of key commodities has boosted the overall growth of China’s foreign trade with ASEAN, and promoted the continuous optimization of China-ASEAN bilateral trade structure. Looking ahead, China-ASEAN trade enjoys immense development potential in terms of economic growth prospects, labor supply and cost, bilateral international division of labor, regional economic integration and other aspects.
6月23日，澜湄合作专项基金2020年柬埔寨项目签约仪式在金边柬外交部举行（图 视觉中国）
合作平台的重大支撑
Strong support for cooperation platforms
当前，第17届中国-东盟博览会的筹备工作正在如火如荼进行中，这是中国与东盟友好合作的一个窗口，也是中国-东盟经贸合作逆“疫”而上的一个缩影。
Now, the preparation work of the 17th China-ASEAN Expo is well underway, which is not only a window into China-ASEAN friendly cooperation, but also an epitome of growing China-ASEAN economic cooperation despite COVID-19.
6月11日，全球疫情中的中国-东盟经济合作研讨会以视频方式召开。中国外交部亚洲司前司长张九桓表示，事实证明，中国与东盟国家关系经受得起考验，双方相互支持、密切合作，已经成为有效应对疫情的典范。
On June 11, China-ASEAN Economic and Trade Seminar against the background of the global pandemic was held through video conference. It turns out that China-ASEAN relationship can stand test, said Zhang Jiuhuan, former director of the Department of Asian Affairs of the Foreign Ministry. China and ASEAN countries have supported each other and maintained close cooperation in the battle with COVID-19, making China-ASEAN relationship a prime model of how to fight the epidemic together effectively.
除中国-东盟博览会之外，中国-东盟自贸区、中国-东盟商务与投资峰会等重大平台在促进双边经贸合作中也将进一步发挥巨大作用。
In addition to China-ASEAN Expo, China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit and other key platforms will play a huge role in promoting bilateral economic cooperation.
2019年9月23日，第十六届中国-东盟博览会上，参观者选购巴基斯坦青铜器（新华社记者 曹祎铭 摄）
2019年10月，中国-东盟自贸区升级《议定书》对所有协定成员全面生效，在自贸区框架内，中国和东盟90%以上的商品实现了零关税。同时，在原产地规则、贸易通关规定、服务贸易、投资领域等方面均降低了门槛，进一步释放了自贸区实施红利，为区域内企业和人民带来了“看得见、摸得着”的好处和便利。
In October 2019, the Upgraded Protocol of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has entered into full force for all member countries. Within the free trade area framework, more than 90 percent of goods between China and ASEAN enjoy zero tariff treatment. At the same time, the thresholds in many aspects like rules of origin, customs clearance, trade in services and investment are lowered and the dividends brought by the construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area are further unleashed, bringing visible and tangible benefits and convenience to enterprises and people in the region.
在区域经济一体化迅速发展的同时，东盟日益成为高质量共建“一带一路”中成效显著的地区。2018年11月，《中国-东盟战略伙伴关系2030年愿景》正式发布；2019年11月，“一带一路”倡议与《东盟互联互通总体规划2025》对接合作达成一致，这对双方区域互联互通具有重要的推动作用。
Amid the rapid development of regional economic integration, ASEAN has become a region with remarkable achievements in high-quality BRI cooperation. In November 2018, China-ASEAN Strategic Partnership Vision 2030 was officially released. In November 2019, the ASEAN-China Joint Statement on Synergizing the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) 2025 and the BRI was announced, which plays a key role in promoting regional connectivity between the two sides.
中国对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院世界经济研究员朱兆一认为，随着共建“一带一路”的推进，东盟基础设施建设逐步完善，中国与东盟区域产业链会进一步深度整合，势必进一步增加双边贸易额；中国国内消费水平提升同样惠及中国与东盟的贸易。
As constant progress is made in the BRI cooperation and ASEAN’s infrastructure is improving, China’s and ASEAN’s industry chains will become more and more deeply integrated and thus boost bilateral foreign trade volume, and China’s raised consumption will also benefit China-ASEAN trade, said Zhu Zhaoyi, a researcher on world economy at the Institute of International Economy of the University of International Business and Economics.
5月26日，长三角地区至东盟的国际货运班列正式开行（图 新华社）
数字经济合作前景可期
Promising digital economic cooperation
当下在国内爆红的“直播带货”也在东盟国家流行起来。数字经济、新基建等领域或将成为中国-东盟贸易新的增长点。
“Live-stream marketing”, which is all the rage in China, now is gaining ground in ASEAN countries. In this context, fields like digital economy and new infrastructure may become new economic drivers of China-ASEAN trade.
“6月是泰国水果黄金月，我给大家带来了榴莲、山竹、芒果、椰青、莲雾、青柚……”6月9日，泰国副总理兼商业部部长朱林走进直播间，在阿里巴巴天猫直播平台上?“叫卖”起了泰国水果。朱林话音刚落，一款山竹就被中国网友秒杀一空。当天直播活动“战果”喜人，共售出近5000个榴莲、2万个椰青、1500份甜虾、3000袋香米及1500份网红炸鸡。
“June is the golden month for fruits in Thailand. Today I bring you durian, mangosteen, mango, coconut, wax apple, grapefruit...” On June 9, Jurin Laksanavisit, Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister of Thailand, walked into a live-stream studio of Alibaba Group’s Tmall live-stream platform to market Thailand’s fruit products. Even before Jurin Laksanavisit finished talking, a kind of mangosteen was snapped up by Chinese netizens. The live-stream show was a great success with nearly 5,000 durians, 20,000 coconuts, 1,500 portions of sweet shrimp, 3,000 bags of fragrant rice and 1,500 portions of popular fried chicken being sold.
5月16日，在广西自贸试验区南宁片区的电商直播间内，越南籍主播陈光辉（左）直播带货（图 视觉中国）
据泰国农业与合作部、商业部统计，中国是泰国过去3年最大的水果贸易伙伴之一。今年，泰国水果业出口受到疫情冲击，泰国商业部把电子商务视为提振经济的机遇。直播活动结束后，朱林表示，“中国电商发展理念和技术非常先进，泰中两国的商品贸易将越来越多地通过电商平台展开，欢迎更多中国电商平台入驻泰国，带动泰国电商行业进步。”
According to the statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives and the Ministry of Commerce of Thailand, China has been one of Thailand’s largest fruit trading partners in the past three years. This year as Thailand’s fruit exports get a hard hit by the outbreak, the Ministry of Commerce of Thailand sees e-commerce as an opportunity to boost the economy. “China’s e-commerce development concepts and technologies are very advanced, and more and more Thailand-China trade in goods is conducted through e-commerce platforms. We welcome more Chinese e-commerce platforms into Thailand to promote the growth of Thailand’s e-commerce industry,” said Jurin Laksanavisit after the live-stream show.
5月21日至26日，阿里巴巴旗下的东南亚电商平台Lazada在其泰国平台上一共举办了270场直播会，共有超过80个泰国本土品牌和20个全球品牌参会。在马来西亚、菲律宾和泰国的直播活动取得良好成绩的同时，Lazada也正将该技术推广到东南亚地区的其他市场。
From May 21 to 26, Lazada, Alibaba’s Southeast Asia e-commerce platform, held 270 live-stream shows on its Thai platform, which attracted a total of more than 80 local brands and 20 global brands. As live-stream shows in Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand have been successful, Lazada is promoting the live-stream marketing technology to other South Asian markets.
除传统的货物贸易外，基于互联网的跨境电子商务也成为双边贸易的新亮点。5月底，中泰两国合作开通了跨境“水果专列”，通过广西凭祥、东兴两个口岸，用火车运送泰国水果至中国；6月11日，满载近2.08万单、6.5吨的跨境电商平台货物飞往菲律宾马尼拉，这也是南宁开通的第二条面向东盟的货运航线……
In addition to traditional trade in goods, the Internet-enabled cross-border e-commerce has also become a new highlight of bilateral trade. At the end of May, China and Thailand jointly opened a cross-border “fruit train” to transport Thai fruits to China via the border ports of Pingxiang and Dongxing in Guangxi. On June 11, 6.5 tons of cargo of nearly 20,800 orders on a cross-border e-commerce platform were transported by plane to Manila, the Philippines, with this flight marking the second air cargo route opened by Nanning for ASEAN.
中国-东盟博览会主会场——广西南宁国际会展中心（新华社记者 周华 摄）
2020年，数字经济正成为中国-东盟新的贸易增长点。疫情冲击下，数字经济对于恢复各国经济社会发展、创造更多就业机会、增进民生福祉的重要意义进一步突显；2020年也是中国-东盟数字经济合作年，未来，中国和东盟将共同拓展在电子商务、科技创新、5G网络、智慧城市等领域的合作，让双方经贸合作拥有更具可持续性的良好发展。
In 2020, digital economy is emerging as a new growth driver of China-ASEAN trade. As COVID-19 is hitting the world, the significant role of digital economy in restoring economic and social development, creating more job opportunities and improving people’s well-being has become more and more pronounced. Moreover, 2020 is also China-ASEAN Year of Digital Economy Cooperation. In the future, China and ASEAN will expand cooperation in e-commerce, scientific and technological innovation, 5G network, smart cities and other fields, in an effort to ensure better and more sustainable development of bilateral economic cooperation.
主题策划：稳外贸进行时
①稳住中国外贸基本盘，也就稳住了世界经济的阵脚
②稳外贸 中国策
③逆势增长！中国-东盟贸易的背后逻辑
④中欧班列跑出“加速度”
⑤外贸企业复工中的困境与出路
⑥为中小微外贸企业保驾护航
⑦跨境电商 乘风破浪
来源：《一带一路报道》2020年第4期
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