区块链经济回暖

香港国际新经济研究院高级研究员付饶

Senior Research Fellowof Hong Kong New Economics International Institute Tony

区块链技术从08年提出到现在，每时每刻都在不断的丰富和发展。历经了2018年的区块链泡沫破裂，行业也在重建和回暖。

The blockchain technology has been constantly enriching and developing since it was raised in 2008. The industry is also rebuilding and returning to growth after the burst of the blockchain bubble in 2018.

政策方面，中国、中国香港、新加坡等地政府的相关监管政策在逐渐落地。商业方面，华尔街巨头摩根大通将推出自己的加密货币JPM，以提高结算效率。值得注意的是，其CEO杰米·戴蒙在2015年还曾表示“比特币不会活下去”，2017年重申比特币就是一种欺诈，如果有员工炒币，那么就把他开除。传媒方面，中国官方媒体央视针对比特币的报道题目从2018年的《区块链代币泡沫堆积小心落入资本圈钱游戏》转换成了2019年的《法国烟草商店可以购买比特币》。最引行业关注、作为风向标的比特币价格，也在近期从长期横盘的3500美元左右急速上升至3900美元一枚以上，带来了久违的突破。

In terms of policies, the relevant regulatory policies of the governments of China, Hong Kong, Singapore and other places are gradually coming. As for commerce, Wall Street giant JP Morgan Chase&Co will launch its own cryptocurrency JPMcoin to improve settlement efficiency. It is worth noting that its CEO Jamie Dimononce said in 2015 that “Bitcoin will not survive” In 2017, he reaffirmed that Bitcoin was a fraud, any employees who involved in cryptocurrency speculation would be expelled. In the field of media, the report on Bitcoin of official Chinese media CCTV has been converted from “The Blockchain Token Bubble Accumulation Keep Away From Misappropriating Game” in 2018 into “Bitcoin Can be Bought in French Tobacco Store” in 2019. The bitcoin price, as wind vane, which is the most concerned about in the industry, has also risen sharply from the long-term sideways of around $3,500 to more than $3,900, bringing a long-lost breakthrough.

其实，行业的寒冬带来了低估值的资产，“春江水暖鸭先知”，作为产业链的上游，金融圈在区块链领域进行的探索和布局近期更加频密。一则新闻吸引了笔者的注意。美国公司Securitize与香港公司C Block Capital宣布缔结战略合作伙伴关系。C Block Capital将把源自大中华区的证券通证项目引入Securitize平台，进行数字证券的发行和管理。Securitize是基于区块链进行数字证券发行和管理的合规平台与协议公司。其CEO表示将在2019年建立全球首个采用区块链技术的债务发行平台；C Block Capital的愿景是成为亚洲领先的另类投资管理平台，为中国与世界对接传统资本与数字市场的需求。美国和香港都有针对区块链的监管政策，在证券化代币发行方面走在世界前沿。相信两地两家区块链产业“投行”的合作将为区块链的投融资带来更专业的服务。

In fact, the industry's dark winter brought cheap valuation. As the saying goes, "whentheriveris gettingwarming, theducksarefirsttoknow".As the upstream of the industrial chain, the exploration and layout of the financial circle in the blockchain field has been more frequent recently. A piece of news caught the attention of the author.Securitize and C Block Capital announced a strategic partnership. C Block Capital will be channeling digital securities offering projects originating from the Greater China Region onto Securitize’s platform for the issuance and management of digital securities. Securitize is a compliance platform and protocol company that conducts digital securities issuance and management based on blockchain. Its CEO said it will establish the world's first debt issuance platform using blockchain technology in 2019; C Block Capital's vision is to become Asia's leading alternative investment management platform to meet the needs of realizing butt joint between traditional capital and digital market of China and the whole world. Both the United States and Hong Kong have regulatory policies for blockchains and are at the forefront of token offerings. It is believed that the cooperation between the two blockchain industries in the two places will bring more professional services to the investment and financing of the blockchain.

正所谓“不破不立”，区块链经济的回暖笔者认为有三个原因。其一，是监管的规范。随着各国监管科技快速迭代、持续进步，利用数字货币进行非法洗钱的行为无处藏身，各国政府明确了不可为，行业的正规玩家就纷纷入场。美国已有REG A、REG D等监管政策下的证券通证发行成功案例。其二，是数字货币领域的知名度不断上升，一些养老金等机构资金追求长期投资收益，强调风险的分散化，看重基金的资产配置，需要配置以数字货币为代表的另类资产，此时适逢入场时机。其三，是配置数字货币的金融工具的多元化。美国最大期权交易所Cboe和全球最大期货交易所CME均有比特币期货，这些衍生品的出现，方便投资者套期保值，对冲风险。

As the saying goes, " there can be no construction without destruction".The author holds the belief that there are three reasons for the recovery of blockchain economy. Firstly, the regulation of supervision. With the rapid iteration and continuous improvement of the supervision and technology of various countries, the use of digital currency for illegal money laundering has nowhere to hide. The governments of various countries have made clear what can’t be done so that the regular players of the industry would like to entered the market. There has been successful cases of STO under REG A, REG D and other regulatory policies in the United States. Secondly, the rising popularity of the digital currency sector. Some pension funds and other institutions are pursuing long-term investment income, emphasizing the decentralization of risks, and focusing on the asset allocation of funds. It is necessary to allocate alternative assets represented by digital currency. It is an appropriate admission timing.Thirdly, the diversification of financial instruments that configure digital currencies. Both the largest option exchange in the United States, Cboe, and the world's largest futures exchange, CME, have bitcoin futures. The emergence of these derivatives facilitates investor hedging and hedging risks.

当然，正如只有获得监管机构批准的主要机构客户才可使用摩根大通数字代币JPM，行业复苏的同时伴随着“腾笼换鸟”：机构投资者多了，散户少了；有经验的投资者多了，“大妈”、“韭菜”少了。投资者结构的调整与行业的回暖互为因果，成为良性发展的前提和开端。

Of course, just as the main institutional clients approved by the regulator can use JPMCoin, the industry recovery is accompanied by “vacating cage to change bird”: more institutional investors, fewer retail investors; more experienced investors, less "Aunt" and "Leek". The adjustment of investor structure and the recovery of the industry interact as both cause and effect and become the premise and beginning of benign development.