2050年世界城市“天气预报”：伦敦夏天平均气温27度 How hot cities could be in 2050

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一项“乐观”的研究指出，如果世界各国采取措施减少碳排放，在2050年前把气温增幅控制在2摄氏度以内，那么到时候各大城市的气温仍会显著上升，部分城市将遭遇剧烈的气候变化影响。具体详情请看2050年的“天气预报”。

Photo by Luca Micheli on Unsplash

London could feel as hot as Barcelona by 2050, with Edinburgh's climate more like Paris, Leeds feeling like Melbourne and Cardiff like Montevideo.

2050年伦敦将和巴塞罗那一样热，爱丁堡的气候更接近巴黎，利兹气温和墨尔本趋同，加的夫则与蒙得维的亚（乌拉圭首都）类似。

That's from a study looking at how a 2C temperature increase could change the world's 520 major cities.

一项研究预测了全球气温升高2度对世界520个大城市的影响。以上结果就来自这项研究。

And that's not as good as it might sound.

结果比听上去还要糟。

More than a fifth, including Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, will experience conditions big cities haven't seen before, the Crowther Lab says.

克劳瑟实验室称，超五分之一的城市，包括新加坡和吉隆坡，将面临大城市前所未见的气候变化。

London could suffer from the type of extreme drought that hit Barcelona in 2008 - when it was forced to import drinking water from France at a cost of £20 million.

伦敦将经历2008年巴塞罗那遭遇的极度干旱，当时巴塞罗那被迫耗资2000万英镑（1.7亿元人民币）从法国进口饮用水。

The 2C rise by 2050 is comparing the present day to what temperatures were in the "pre-industrial period" - usually considered to be between the years 1850 and 1900 - when fossil-fuel burning hadn't yet changed the climate.

到2050年上升2摄氏度是同前工业时代的气温作对比。通常认为1850年到1900年是前工业时代，那时候化石燃料的使用尚未改变气候。

fossil-fuel: 化石燃料

That temperature increase would result in the average UK temperature during summer's hottest month increasing by about six degrees to 27C.

气温升高会导致英国夏日最热月份的平均气温升高6摄氏度，达到27摄氏度。

Scientists hope pairing up cities will help people visualise the impact climate change could have within their own lifetimes.

科学家希望通过城市间的对比可以帮助人们想象到气候变化在自己有生之年产生的影响。

"History has repeatedly shown us that data and facts alone do not inspire humans to change their beliefs or act," lead author Jean-Francois Bastin said.

首席作者让-弗朗索瓦·巴斯坦说：“历史反复地表明，仅靠数据和事实不能推动人们改变自己的观念或行动。”

The study, published in the journal PLOS One, suggests summers and winters in Europe will get warmer, with average increases of 3.5C and 4.7C respectively.

这项发表在《科学公共图书馆·综合》期刊上的研究显示，欧洲的夏天和冬天会变得更热，平均气温将分别升高3.5摄氏度和4.7摄氏度。

It's the equivalent to a city shifting 620 miles (1,000km) further south - with those furthest away from the equator being most affected.

这相当于一个城市南移620英里（1000千米），离赤道越远的城市受影响越大。

Governments around the world have pledged to limit rising temperatures to 1.5C by 2050.

世界各地的政府都已承诺要在2050年前把气温增幅控制在1.5摄氏度以内。

The global temperature has already increased by 1C above pre-industrial levels, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says.

联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会称，全球气温已经比前工业时代的水平上升了1摄氏度。

And at the current rate of warming - 0.2C per decade - global warming will reach 1.5C between 2030 and 2052.

按照现在的全球变暖速度——每十年升高0.2摄氏度——气温增幅将在2030年和2052年间达到1.5摄氏度。

The UN body has warned that exceeding 1.5C warming will push us into "a highly uncertain world" - adding that "the current global commitments are not sufficient to prevent temperature rise above 2C, let alone 1.5C".

委员会警告说，气温增幅超过1.5摄氏度会将我们推向一个“高度不稳定的世界”，并补充说“现有的全球承诺不足以防止气温增幅超过2摄氏度，更别说1.5摄氏度”。

It estimates that under current national commitments, average temperature increases will range from 2.9C to 3.4C by 2100.

据估计，依照现有的国家承诺，全球平均气温增幅将在2100年前达到2.9摄氏度至3.4摄氏度。

To keep us below 1.5C, the panel says carbon emissions need to be cut by 45% by 2030, and reach net zero by 2050.

为了把气温增幅控制在1.5摄氏度以内，委员会表示碳排放需要在2030年前减少45%，并在2050年前实现零排放。

So this study's projections are actually quite optimistic, imagining a future where action has been taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

因此这项研究的预测结果其实相当乐观，因为它想象的未来已经采取措施来减少温室气体排放。

The report predicts that three quarters of the world's major cities will experience dramatic climate shifts under those conditions.

报告预测，在这些条件下，四分之三的世界主要城市将经历剧烈的气候变化。

英文来源：BBC

翻译&编辑：丹妮

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