美国网友问：如果我们与中国开战，中国会把战争带到美国本土吗？

中美之间的紧张关系一直是全球热议的话题之一，而随着时间的推移，这种紧张关系越来越严重，甚至可能引发冲突。近日，有媒体报道称，美国人称中国不能攻打美本土，但新加坡做出预测，这一说法引起了广泛的关注和猜测。那么，中美冲突一旦爆发，中国会把战火带到美国本土吗？在美版知乎Quora上，各国网友探讨了个问题。

问题：如果我们美国与中国开战，中国会把战争带到美国本土吗？

德国网友比尔•慕勒的回答

In conventional warfare, China does not, logistical support is too difficult to achieve, and crossing a vast ocean is basically impossible.

在常规战争中，中国不会，后勤保障太难做到，穿越一片汪洋大海进攻基本是不可能的。

However, in a nuclear war, China can do so. China will retaliate against any first nuclear strike. China has 350 nuclear weapons and a "trinity" delivery system, and there will be no difficulty in deploying 50 to 100 nuclear weapons on the mainland of the United States. This will be the scene after the United States becomes embroiled in the war:

然而，在核战争中，中国可以做到。中国将对任何第一次核打击进行报复。中国拥有350枚核武器和“三位一体”的运载系统，在美国大陆投放50-100枚核武器将不会有任何困难。这将是美国卷入战争后的场景：

Dozens of American cities will be destroyed;

•数十个美国城市将被摧毁；

Tens of millions of Americans will die in the first few hours and days;

•数千万美国人将在最初的几个小时和几天内死亡；

In the coming months and years, countless people will die from radiation sickness, cancer, diseases, famine, etc;

•在接下来的几个月和几年里，还会有无数人死于辐射病、癌症、疾病、饥荒等；

Millions of square kilometers of radioactive wasteland will be generated, which will be uninhabitable for centuries;

•将产生数百万平方公里的放射性荒地，几个世纪内无法居住；

The industrial and technological foundation of the United States will be destroyed, causing the country to regress for at least 100 years;

•美国的工业和技术基础将被摧毁，使国家倒退至少100年；

• Anarchy will erupt in various parts of the United States;

•美国各地将爆发无政府状态；

The United States should be very clear that China has been implementing a tit for tat defense strategy. Any Chinese city attacked, anyone killed, or action taken will cause equal or more serious damage to the mainland of the United States. But there will be people living in America! I want to know how the American people will feel about this.

美国应该非常清楚的是，中国一直在实施针锋相对的防御战略。任何中国城市遭到袭击，任何人被杀，任何行动都将对美国大陆造成同等或更严重的损害。但美国会有人活下来的！我想知道剩下的美国人民对此会有什么感受。

美国网友皮特•艾洛特的回答

China is seeking to become a leading economic power in the world. However, China's development model is not about waging war to achieve this, it is more like the American development model here: waging war and profiting from it.

中国正在寻求成为世界领先的经济大国。然而，中国的发展模式并不是为了实现这一点而发动战争，这更像这里的美国的发展模式：发动战争然后从中获利。

If one day China launches a war, it will only be to protect itself from possible attacks by the United States on its territory, which is my feeling.

假如有一天中国发动战争，那也只是为了保护自己免受美国对其领土可能发动的袭击，这就是我的感觉。

If this situation really occurs, then we will have to doubt the possible formation of an anti American alliance. We will be on the verge of world conflict and the worrisome World War III and the cold war that began between China and the United States.

如果真的发生了这种情况，那么我们将不得不怀疑可能形成的反美联盟。我们将处于世界冲突的边缘，处于令人担忧的第三次世界大战与中美之间开始的冷战的边缘。

On the one hand, the world will form an axis led by the United States, with Australia and the United Kingdom clearly following suit. For the European Union, it may sit on the sidelines watching the tiger fight, and a neutral stance would be more advisable. India may choose non alignment, which has been India's preferred strategy since the end of World War II.

一方面，世界将形成以美国为首的轴心，澳大利亚和英国显然会追随于美国。对于欧盟来说，他可能会坐山观虎斗，中立立场会更可取。印度可能会选择不结盟，这是自第二次世界大战结束以来印度的首选战略。

On the Chinese side, natural allies seem to be Russia, Iran, and Pakistan. However, there is no indication that Russia really wants to embark on such an adventure.

在中国方面，天然盟友似乎是俄罗斯、伊朗和巴基斯坦。然而，没有迹象表明俄罗斯真的想开始这样的冒险。

Since the end of World War II, Russia may have been a historical enemy of the United States, but in this situation, Russia's relationship with China will be put to the test. This is the worst-case scenario that no one wants to see in the future. Unfortunately, if the United States continues to escalate tensions in the Indo Pacific region in the future, it is highly likely that this situation will ignite a war, and China will never let the United States stand alone. After destroying the US military bases in Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, the US mainland will become a target of attack.

自第二次世界大战结束以来，俄罗斯可能一直是美国的历史敌人，但在这种情况下，俄罗斯与中国的关系将受到考验。这是未来没有人愿意看到的最坏情况。不幸的是，如果美国未来继续加剧印太地区的紧张局势，很可能会发生这种情况，引爆战争，而且中国绝对不会让美国独善其身，在毁灭美国在日韩、菲律宾的军事基地之后，美国本土将成为被打击的目标。

海外网友罗伯特•温拿罗斯的回答

China and the United States are two superpowers with the world's most powerful military. If they conflict, it will depend on what type of war we are talking about.

中国和美国是两个超级大国，拥有世界上最强大的军队。如果他们发生冲突，那将取决于我们谈论的是什么类型的战争。

Nuclear war - neither country has won, only vast areas of radiation wasteland

核战争——两国都没有赢家，只有大片被辐射的荒地

Conventional warfare - With the emergence of cyber warfare and space warfare, the results are much more complex. The conventional war scenario is based on the direct conflict between two countries relying solely on the strength of soldiers, vehicles, and weapons. Let's first compare the strength of the military

常规战争-随着网络战和太空战的新出现，结果要复杂得多。常规战争场景是基于两国仅凭士兵、车辆和武器的力量正面冲突。让我们先比较一下军队的实力…

Overall military scale - China has over 2.3 million active personnel, while the United States has 1.4 million active personnel. Although China has 60% more personnel, their equipment technology needs to be improved. Since the late 1980s, China has not participated in wars, so almost all soldiers have no real combat experience. At the same time, the United States has many experienced veterans and active soldiers. The average equipment value of American soldiers is about 17000 dollars, while that of Chinese soldiers is only 1500 dollars, usually excluding bulletproof vest.

总体军事规模——中国有230多万现役人员，而美国有140万现役人员。尽管中国的人员多出了60%，但他们装备科技有待提升。自20世纪80年代末以来，中国就没有参加过战争，与此同时，美国有许多久经沙场的退伍军人和现役军人，比如在伊拉克和阿富汗。美国士兵的平均装备价值约17000美元，而中国士兵的装备价值仅为1500美元，通常不包括防弹衣。

The size of the army - China and the United States have roughly the same number of Main battle tank, 10000 and 2000 self-propelled artillery respectively. China has 6200 towed guns, while the United States only has 1500. Although compared to China's 4800, the United States has a much larger number of armored vehicles, at 41000. Their Main battle tank is M1 Abram, which has served the army for the past 35 years and has proved its effectiveness in combat, especially in the Gulf War. The Chinese Type 99 tank is also the third generation Main battle tank. Its chassis is similar to the Western design, and it is on a par with Abram in terms of technology, armament and armor.

陆军规模——中国和美国的主战坦克数量大致相同，分别为10000辆和2000门自行火炮。中国有6200门牵引式火炮，而美国只有1500门。尽管与中国的4800辆相比，美国的装甲战车数量要多得多，为4.1万辆。他们的主战坦克是M1 Abram，它在过去35年中一直为军队服务，并在战斗中证明了它的有效性，尤其是在海湾战争中。中国99式坦克也是第三代主战坦克，在技术、军备和装甲方面与美国的艾布拉姆不相上下。

Air Force - The United States has over 13000 aircraft, while China has only 2900. The aircraft technology in the United States is more advanced. In the past two decades, China has made significant efforts to replace aging aircraft hangars and introduced some powerful fifth generation fighter jets, such as the J20. According to the current production speed of new aircraft, it is expected that by 2030, China will have more aircraft than the United States.

空中力量-美国拥有13000多架飞机，而中国只有2900架。美国的飞机技术更先进。在过去的二十年里，中国在更换老化的飞机库方面做出了重大努力，并引进了一些强大的第五代战斗机，如J20。根据目前新飞机的生产速度，预计到2030年，中国的飞机数量将超过美国。

Naval power - the United States has 11 aircraft carriers, while China only has 3. Aircraft carriers are the most important asset of the navy. In addition to aircraft carriers, the United States has 62 destroyers, while China has 38 destroyers. They have roughly the same number of submarines, with the United States having 75 and China having 68.

海军力量——美国有11艘航空母舰，而中国只有3艘。航空母舰是海军最重要的资产。除航空母舰外，美国有62艘驱逐舰，而中国有38艘驱逐舰。他们拥有的潜艇数量大致相同，美国有75艘，中国有68艘。

Missiles - China may surpass the United States in missile technology. China has developed many powerful anti-ship missile and successfully tested anti satellite missiles.

导弹——中国可能在导弹技术方面超过美国。中国已经开发了许多强大的反舰导弹，并成功测试了反卫星导弹。

Now let's consider different scenarios

现在让我们考虑不同的场景

1. China's Entry into the United States

1.中国将战火引入美国本土

China has absolutely no chance of winning. The geographical location of the United States makes it difficult to invade from the beginning, almost surrounded by water bodies on all sides, and the only way to launch a large-scale invasion is through the ocean. US military satellites can observe the large-scale mobilization of Chinese soldiers and immediately detect them crossing the Pacific Ocean. The US Navy is much stronger than the Chinese Navy. China will have to deal a heavy blow to the US fleet in the Pacific and win in the constant attacks of US fighter jets, even landing along the US coastline and launching military operations.

中国很难有有获胜的机会。美国的地理位置使其很难从一开始就入侵，几乎四面被水体包围，发动大规模入侵的唯一途径是通过海洋。美国军事卫星可以看到中国士兵的大规模动员，并可以立即探测到他们穿越太平洋。美国海军比中国海军强大得多。中国将不得不对美国在太平洋的舰队造成沉重打击，并在美国战斗机的不断攻击中获胜，甚至能够沿着美国海岸线降落并发动军事行动。

If China could land, it would be difficult to advance inland due to the technology and preparation of the military. Americans fight on their own land, with better tanks and more armored vehicles. In addition, their soldiers received better training. If there is a ground war on the US mainland, China will suffer huge casualties.

如果中国能够登陆，由于军队的后勤和准备，将很难向内陆推进。美国人在本土作战，拥有更好的坦克和更多的装甲战车。此外，他们的士兵得到了更好的训练。如果美国本土发生地面战争，中国将遭受巨大伤亡。

For example, the Chinese have successfully occupied most parts of the United States, even the entire country. It is difficult for China to control such a vast land, especially considering the armed civilian population of the United States. This will basically be like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s. The civilian population will adopt guerrilla tactics, which will happen frequently, so it will be extremely difficult and almost impossible to manage the country effectively.

比方说中国人成功占领了美国的大部分地区，甚至整个国家。中国很难控制如此广阔的土地，尤其是考虑到美国的武装平民人口。这基本上会像20世纪80年代苏联入侵阿富汗一样。平民百姓会采用游击战术，这种情况会频繁发生，因此有效管理国家将极其困难，几乎不可能。

In short, China really cannot successfully penetrate the US mainland.

总之，中国真的不太可能成功打入美国本土。

2. US invasion of China

2.美国入侵中国

Although the United States has surpassed China in most aspects, invading China is also very difficult for the US military. First, China has many anti-ship missile guarding its coastline, which may cause serious damage to the US Navy. The Chinese army will fight on its own land, and their massive scale will bring a lot of trouble to the invading army.

尽管美国在很多方面都超过了中国，但入侵中国对美国军队来说也是极其困难的。首先，中国有许多反舰导弹守卫着海岸线，它们可能会对美国海军造成严重破坏。中国军队将在本土作战，他们的庞大规模将给侵略军带来很多麻烦。

In addition, China is the most populous country in the world. Although civilians do not have firearms, they may engage in full-scale war to support the war. Under the guidance of doctrine in the US military, it is difficult to conquer the Chinese people.

此外，中国是世界上人口最多的国家。虽然平民百姓没有枪支，但他们可能会为了支持战争而进行全面战争。在美国军事以学说为指导的情况下，很难征服中国人民。

This war is likely to escalate into a stalemate, and similar situations will occur like in Vietnam. This war will be costly, and the domestic people will not be very supportive of it.

这场战争很可能会演变成僵局，类似的情况也会像在越南那样发生。这场战争将耗资巨大，国内人民也不会非常支持这场战争。

英国网友威廉•艾萨克斯的回答

The new deterioration of relations between China and the United States has once again sparked discussions about the possibility of war between the strongest economies on Earth. Naturally, everyone is interested in the answer to this question: Who would win such a war? Will China bring the flames of war into the United States?

中美之间关系堕入低谷再次引发了关于地球上最强经济体之间可能爆发战争的讨论。自然，每个人都对这个问题的答案感兴趣：谁会在这样的战争中获胜？中国会不会将战火带入美国本土？

To answer this question, it is necessary to compare the armed forces of the United States and China.

为了回答这个问题，有必要对美国和中国的武装力量进行比较。

If we talk about the land forces, they make up two-thirds of the personnel in the People's Liberation Army -1.6 million people, with 9150 tanks and armored personnel carriers, as well as 6246 large caliber artillery. At the Pentagon, ground troops are much smaller. Their number is 460000. That's right, there are still 182000 people serving in the Marine Corps. The United States is at a disadvantage in the number of tanks equipped with armored personnel carriers and heavy artillery, at 8848 and 1299, respectively. On the other hand, the Pentagon is focusing on special forces.

如果我们谈论陆地部队，那么在解放军中，他们占了三分之二的人员——160万人，拥有9150辆坦克和装甲运兵车，以及6246门大口径火炮。在五角大楼，地面部队要小得多。他们的人数是46万。没错，还有18.2万人在海军陆战队服役。美国在配备装甲运兵车和重炮的坦克数量方面处于劣势，分别为8848辆和1299辆。另一方面，五角大楼正专注于特种部队。

The main assault force of the US armed forces is the aviation. In the air, the United States has at least four times the advantage: more than 13000 aircraft, and more than 3000. The United States has a particularly significant advantage over helicopters: 6000 in the United States and 802 in China. The US Air Force is far superior to China in terms of combat effectiveness and technical features: in the United States, fifth generation fighter jets (F22 and F35) have been introduced or are currently in service, while only half of China's third-generation aircraft have been replaced by fourth generation aircraft. However, the number of Chinese Air Force personnel exceeded potential enemies: 398000 and 308000, respectively.

美国武装部队的主要突击力量是航空兵。在空中，美国至少有四倍的优势：13000多架飞机。美国相对于直升机的优势尤其巨大：美国有6000架，中国有802架。美国空军在战斗力和技术特征方面优于中国：在美国，第五代战斗机（F22和F35）已经引进或正在服役，而中国有一半的第三代飞机被第四代飞机取代。然而，中国空军的人数超过了潜在的敌人：分别为39.8万人和30.8万人。

The number of Chinese navy is far ahead: 714 warships against 415 US warships, but even here, the US navy still has an advantage in firepower. The United States has an advantage in the most powerful types of ships: the United States has 10 aircraft carriers, while China only has 3.

中国海军的数量遥遥领先：714艘军舰对415艘美国军舰，但即使在这里，美国海军在火力方面也有优势。美国在最强大的舰艇类型上具有优势：美国有10艘航空母舰，而中国只有3艘。

China is by no means far behind in missiles. Rough calculations indicate that China has approximately 260 nuclear warheads that can be launched anywhere in the world. 150 land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles. In addition, China has 48 ballistic missiles on board its ships and bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons. The United States has approximately 1740 nuclear warheads.

中国在导弹方面绝非远远落后。粗略的计算表明，中国拥有大约260枚核弹头，可以发射到世界任何地方。150枚陆基洲际弹道导弹。此外，中国在舰艇上有48枚弹道导弹，以及能够携带核武器的轰炸机。美国拥有大约1740枚核弹头。

All these numbers are irrelevant because the United States' war against China is theoretically impossible. We compared data that cannot be used in the same theater of operations. The US military is dispersed around the world.

所有这些数字都无关紧要，因为美国对中国的战争原则上是不可能的。我们比较了不能在同一战区使用的数据，毕竟美国军队分散在全球各地，防守各个国家。

If you think about the preparations for the Iraq war, you will be surprised to find that defeating Iraq has paid a huge price to member states of the anti Iraq coalition. Firstly, for the US Air Force - the protagonist of the 43 Sky Attack Operation "Desert Storm". 2600 combat and support aircraft. 116000 sorties were deployed in conflict areas. Dozens of air bases in the Middle East, including civilian airports from the United Arab Emirates to Egypt, are composed of aircraft from all over the world.

如果你想想美国在伊拉克战争的准备工作，你会惊讶地发现，战胜伊拉克给反伊拉克联盟的成员国付出了巨大的代价。首先，对于美国空军来说——43天空中进攻行动“沙漠风暴”的主角。2600架作战飞机和支援飞机。在冲突地区出动11.6万架次。中东的数十个空军基地，包括从阿拉伯联合酋长国到埃及的民用机场，都是由来自地球各地的飞机组成的。

Approximately 700000 troops (of which over 500000 are Americans), approximately 25000 fighter jets and 2000 helicopters, over 4000 tanks, and over 3000 from multinational forces (including the United States and allies). Field artillery and mortar barrels, over 100 warships.

大约70万军队（其中50多万是美国人），大约2.5万架战斗机和2000架直升机，4000多辆坦克，3000多辆来自多国部队（美国和盟国）。野战炮和迫击炮的炮管，100多艘军舰。

The Iraqi army has deployed approximately 700000 personnel, up to 700 aircraft, over 5000 tanks, 8000 artillery and mortars, and up to 500 surface to surface missile facilities.

伊拉克军队派出了大约70万人，多达700架飞机，5000多辆坦克，8000门火炮和迫击炮，多达500个地对地导弹设施。

Can you really think that the Chinese or American military will calmly watch the "enemy" troops concentrate near the border? A fleet composed of aircraft carriers conducts combat operations in the waters. All these preparation activities require more than a day, or even a month.

你真的能认为美国或中国军队会平静地看着“敌人”的军队集中在边境附近吗？由航空母舰组成的舰队在水域内进行作战行动。所有这些准备活动都需要一天以上，甚至一个月的时间。

This is a factor. But in this situation, Russia also took action. What position will the Russian authorities take? After all, if China's territory is subjected to a nuclear attack, the population of the Far East and Outer White Kalia may suffer losses. This is not in Russia's interest. This means that Russia's missile defense system may defeat the United States' nuclear attack methods.

这是一个因素。但在这种情况下，俄罗斯也采取了行动。俄罗斯当局将采取什么立场？毕竟，如果中国领土遭到核攻击，远东和外白卡利亚的人口可能会遭受损失。这不符合俄罗斯的利益。这意味着俄罗斯导弹防御系统有可能击败美国的核攻击手段。

Even in theory, it is impossible to defeat China without the use of nuclear weapons. In the case of using conventional weapons, a limited force will not be helpful for combat operations, while the use of nuclear weapons means mutual destruction.

即使从理论上讲，在不使用核武器的情况下战胜中国也是不可能的。在使用常规武器的情况下，有限的部队将无助于作战行动，而使用核武器则意味着互相毁灭。

Therefore, it is best for China and the United States not to use force, as for these two superpowers, no modern weapon will help in this war.

因此，中美最好不要动武，因为对于这两个超级大国来说，任何现代武器都无助于这场战争。