美国网友：在关键零部件上遏制中国可以恢复美国的全球竞争力吗？

芯片供应链市场紧密互联，谁也离不开谁。在这样的情况下，美国试图以技术优势打破市场合作状态，不允许美企或非美企业随意向中国大陆的客户供货。可是美国也会遭到规则的反噬。根据BCG预测，美国若持续加码规则，美企或减少40000个工作岗位。除此之外，美企在规则制度下遭遇怎样的挫折呢？美一意孤行，会造成什么影响？在美版知乎Quora上，美国网友提问道：在关键零部件上对中国“断供”会恢复美国全球竞争力吗？我们看看海外网友的观点。

问题：在关键零部件上对中国进行遏制可以恢复美国全球竞争力吗？

德国网友皮特•艾洛特的回答

Capital is a wonderful thing.

资本是一件美妙的东西。

The United States is the biggest supporter and promoter of capitalism, but we should realize that global capitalism means that there is nothing in the world that can prevent China from manufacturing semiconductor chips except China's inherent destructive force.

美国是资本主义的最大支持者和推动者，可我们应该认识到全球资本主义意味着世界上除了中国的内在的破坏力量之外，没有任何东西可以阻止中国制造半导体芯片。

Among all semiconductor design companies in the United States, China accounts for 38% of the market. This means that cutting off the supply of Chinese parts will hit the operating performance of these companies by 38%, and there is no alternative market. Japan is saturated, South Korea is saturated, and the demand of emerging markets is less than 0.1% of that of China.

在美国所有的半导体设计公司中，中国占据了38%的市场。这意味着切断中国零部件的供应将使这些公司的经营业绩受到38%的打击，而且没有其他替代市场。日本已经饱和，韩国已经饱和，而新兴市场的需求不及中国的0.1%。

The Chinese company ordered 12 EUV lithography machines from a Dutch manufacturer at a price of 1.64 billion US dollars. However, a Dutch court ruled that the first two EUV machines must be delivered regardless of the US sanctions, since the initial order was issued before the sanctions. Therefore, on March 8, 2021, the delivery of two EUV machines was only delayed for three weeks.

中国公司以16.4亿美元的价格向一家荷兰制造商订购了12台EUV光刻机。然而，荷兰一家法院裁定，由于最初的命令是在制裁之前下达的，因此无论美国的制裁如何，必须交付首批2台EUV机器。因此，2021 3月8日，两台EUV机器仅延迟了3周交付。

America can't do anything!!!!

美国无能为力！！！！

The second delivery will expire in June 2022. There are two EUV machines in total. This transaction has also been approved by the Dutch court, so the United States cannot interfere in any way.

第二次交付将于2022年6月到期，共有2台EUV机器，这笔交易也已获得荷兰法院的批准，因此美国不得以任何方式干涉。

This is the third batch of two other EUV machines to be delivered in June 2024. The problem will arise because the payment for this order was issued after the sanctions proposed by Trump.

这是第三批将于2024年6月交付的另外2台EUV机器，问题将出现，因为这笔订单付款是在特朗普提出的制裁之后发放的。

However, China has companies in 47 countries, including Singapore and Malaysia, which can import EUVs and repackage and sell them to China without violating any global laws.

然而，中国企业在包括新加坡和马来西亚在内的47个国家拥有公司，这些公司可以进口EUV，并在不违反任何全球法律的情况下重新包装和销售给中国。

To make matters worse, American companies are selling products to China in violation of US sanctions

更糟糕的是，美国公司正在违反美国制裁，向中国出售产品。

If you look at the top 20 private technology companies in the United States today, you will find that 15 are registered in the Cayman Islands, Bermuda or the Bahamas. This makes them happy to establish technology transfer platforms with Singapore or Malaysia companies completely controlled by China.

看看今天美国排名前20的私人科技公司，你会发现有15家在开曼群岛、百慕大或巴哈马注册。这让他们乐于与完全由中国控制的新加坡或马来西亚公司建立技术转让平台。

Therefore, China has indirectly obtained this technology, while private technology companies will not bypass the law and tell Americans - "Sir, I only sold it to Singapore". Therefore, the United States must sanction half of the global companies in order to achieve its goal, which will cause these companies to lose a lot of business.

因此，中国间接获得了这项技术，而私营科技公司不会绕开法律，告诉美国人——“先生，我只卖给了新加坡”。因此，美国为达目的必须制裁全球一半的公司，这将使这些公司失去大量业务。

Conclusion:

结论：

The Chinese people have made good use of the judicial system of Western countries and the initial advantages of global trade to invest in many countries, and have taken advantage of the fact that all companies need a bottom line in the market, and China is a huge market that cannot be ignored.

中国人很好地利用了西方国家的司法系统，利用了全球化贸易的最初优势，在许多国家投资，并利用了这样一个事实：所有公司都需要市场底线，而中国是一个不容忽视的巨大市场。

Therefore, no matter what politicians say, market forces will find a way. The United States cannot contain China in this childish way.

因此，无论政客们怎么说，市场力量都会找到办法，美国不能以这种幼稚的方式遏制中国。

China will obtain all the necessary equipment without any restriction. Therefore, curbing China's development will bind the United States in the short term and make China a leader in another field.

中国将不受任何限制地获得所需的所有设备。因此，遏制中国的发展将在短期内让美国束手束脚，使中国成为另一个领域的领导者。

美国网友弗雷德的回答

When I grew up in my hometown, Dallas, Texas, the United States, this question reminded me that for many years, the second largest city in Texas was dominated by two newspapers, the Dallas Morning Post and the Dallas Times Herald. The Morning Post has more subscribers and believes that it is a newspaper of higher quality.

在我的家乡美国德克萨斯州达拉斯长大的时候，这个问题让我想起了很多年来，德克萨斯州的第二大城市被两份报纸——《达拉斯晨报》和《达拉斯时报先驱报》占据了主导地位。《晨报》拥有更多的订户，并认为这是一份质量更高的报纸。

Despite this, the Times Herald still has many loyal readers, because the Morning Post is considered to be too supportive of "big enterprises" and Dallas's "institutionalism". The Time Herald is considered a rebel, but it has been struggling financially. The owner has agreed to sell its franchise to a larger newspaper.

尽管如此，《时代先驱报》还是有很多忠实的读者，因为《晨报》被认为过于支持“大企业”和达拉斯的“建制派”思想。《时代先驱》被认为是反叛者，但在财务上一直举步维艰，所有者已同意将其特许经营权出售给更大的报纸。

The Morning Post was pleased to acquire their main competitor. They closed the Time Herald and Dallas became a city with only one newspaper. The inevitable result is that the Dallas Morning News has reduced the quality of local news reports, lost many subscribers, and had to conduct large-scale layoffs. Since then, it is no longer one of the best newspapers in the country.

《晨报》很高兴收购了他们的主要竞争对手。他们关闭了《时代先驱报》，达拉斯变成了一个只有一家报纸的城市。不可避免的结果是，《达拉斯晨报》降低了当地新闻报道的质量，他们失去了许多订阅用户，不得不进行大规模裁员，自此也不再是全国最好的报纸之一。

The lesson learned from this story is to explain how competition creates excellence, and how monopoly produces the opposite effect as expected. In the global technology industry, the two main business competitors are the United States and China.

从这个故事中得到的教训是，解释竞争如何造就卓越，而垄断如何产生与预期相反的影响。在全球科技产业中，两个主要的商业竞争对手是美国和中国。

The United States, like the Dallas Morning News, believes that they only need to invest in acquiring competitors. If they fail there, they will lobby Washington, London and Brussels to stop Chinese technology companies. If they can do this, we will see that American high-tech companies are no longer developing because they have no competitors.

美国就像《达拉斯晨报》（Dallas Morning News）一样，认为他们只需要投入资金来收购竞争对手，如果他们在那里不成功，他们就会游说华盛顿、伦敦和布鲁塞尔阻止中国的科技公司。如果他们能够做到这一点，我们将看到美国高科技公司不再发展进步，因为他们没有竞争对手。

Companies that become monopolies only care about their own interests. If there is no competition, they will often bully customers by increasing the price of products and services and reducing the scale of R&D investment and operation.

成为垄断企业的公司只关心自身利益，如果没有竞争，他们往往会通过提高产品和服务的价格，同时降低研发（研发）投资和运营的规模，来对客户进行欺凌。

They can take action with impunity, which is why the governments of many countries, including China, impose strict supervision on anti-monopoly activities.

他们可以不受惩罚地采取行动，这就是包括中国在内的许多国家政府对反垄断行为实施严格监管的原因。

反托拉斯法

In the short and medium term, American companies may achieve some success in eliminating competition from China, but in the long run, they are doomed to lose. Chinese technology companies will change their operations and localize their production, development and consumer base.

从短期和中期来看，美国公司可能会在消除来自中国的竞争中取得一些成功，但从长远来看，它们已经注定了落败的命运。中国科技公司将改变运营，并本地化生产、开发和消费者基础。

Chinese enterprises will have more incentive to upgrade, because they can succeed only by expanding in domestic markets and emerging markets. At the same time, American technology companies have no incentive to upgrade, because they think their competitors are eliminated in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and the European Union.

中国企业将有更多的升级动力，因为它们只有在国内市场和新兴市场扩张才能成功。与此同时，美国科技公司没有升级的动力，因为他们认为自己的竞争对手在美国、加拿大、英国和欧盟市场被淘汰。

China's high-tech companies are innovative. Noting that the world is moving towards a digital economy and that China has led the advanced army in 5G and related industries using AI, China can make greater progress in global innovation through the combined use of AI, cloud storage and big data analysis.

中国高科技公司是创新的，注意到世界正在迈向数字经济，中国已率先进军5G和使用人工智能的相关行业，中国可以通过深入人工智能、云存储和大数据分析的结合使用，在全球创新方面取得更大进展。

In other words, the decoupling of the US and China's science and technology strategy will not restore the US to its former glory.

换句话说，美国与中国科技战略脱钩不会让美国恢复昔日的辉煌。

美国微信专家克雷格•雷纳尔德的回答

The high-tech supply chain of the United States is very small for China's high-tech industry. Only software design tools occupy a slightly higher weight, the rest can be ignored, and there are other options.

美国的高科技供应链对中国的高科技产业来说微乎其微。只有软件设计工具占据稍高的权重，其余的可以忽略不计，并且有其他选择。

The United States itself will not destroy China's technology industry, but the United States is trying to abuse its dollar system to threaten the global supply chain to choose whether to supply to China.

美国本身不会毁灭中国的科技产业，但美国正试图滥用其美元体系，威胁全球供应链选择是否向中国供应。

This task is doomed to fail, and many companies, including American companies, cannot strive to lose the Chinese market. Ultimately, most suppliers will find ways to circumvent threats and prohibitions.

这项任务注定会失败，包括美国公司在内的许多公司都无法努力失去中国市场。最终，大多数供应商将找到绕过威胁和禁令的方法。

Most likely, it accelerated the decline of the high-tech industry in the United States. Disturb the global supply chain and global supply, such as the current shortage of semiconductor chips in the market.

最有可能的是，它加速了美国高科技产业的衰落。扰乱全球供应链，扰乱全球供应，如目前市场上半导体芯片短缺。

This will encourage China to increase its efforts to become self reliant in key components and materials and to achieve sufficient output. It also helps China identify reliable suppliers from unreliable suppliers.

这将激励中国加大努力，在关键部件和材料方面自力更生，并取得足够的产量。它还帮助中国从不可靠的供应商中识别出可靠的供应商。

In general, this will help China consolidate its efforts to build a strong and reliable high-tech industry and become an invincible global high-tech center.

总的来说，这将有助于中国巩固其建设一个强大可靠的高科技产业的努力，成为一个不可战胜的全球高科技中心。

The impact on the U.S. high-tech industry will be negative. The global trend of free American content may gain traction. U.S. technology companies will lose market share, reduce revenue, reduce R&D funds, and reduce competitiveness. It will eventually be replaced by the market.

对美国高科技产业的影响将是负面的，全球自由美国内容趋势可能会获得牵引力，美国科技公司将失去市场份额，收入减少，研发资金减少，竞争力降低。最终将被市场取代。

China will accelerate its leading position in the global high-tech market.

中国将加快在全球高科技市场的主导地位。

英国网友古尔丹的回答

This problem is often mentioned by those who do not know what technical progress needs. To understand the dynamics of technological breakthroughs, you must first determine the prerequisites. You can't develop 5G technology with a group of red necks. American politicians, the media and the government keep spreading rumors. China's progress is due to stealing American trade secrets, copying American technology and espionage. Will you tell the ignorant American people the truth? No one can surpass the United States by copying or stealing its old technology.

这个问题经常被那些不知道技术进步需要什么的人提及。要了解技术突破的动态，您必须首先确定先决条件。你不可能带着一群红脖子来开发5G技术。美国政客、媒体和政府不断造谣，中国的进步是因为窃取美国的商业机密、复制美国的技术和间谍活动等。告诉无知的美国民众真相好吗？谁都不能通过复制或窃取美国的旧技术来超越美国。

In 2016, China trained 4.6 million STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) graduates, while the United States only trained 568000. The number of Chinese is more than eight times that of the United States. The trend line shows that there will be more STEM graduates in China every year.

2016年，中国培养了460万名STEM（科学、技术、工程和数学）毕业生，而美国仅培养了56.8万名。中国人的数量是美国的八倍多。趋势线显示，中国每年都会有更多的STEM毕业生。

With so much intellectual reserves, will the Chinese have more discoveries and inventions? Data shows that in recent years, China has submitted more than twice as many patent applications as the United States. The trend line also shows that China is increasing this number year by year. With wisdom, they can develop 5G and then 6G, leaving the United States far behind. Is it strange?

有了这么多的智力储备，中国人会有更多的发现和发明吗？资料显示，近年来，中国提交的专利申请是美国的两倍多。趋势线还表明，中国正在逐年增加这一数字。凭借智慧，他们能发展5G，然后发展6G，把美国远远甩在身后，这有什么奇怪的吗？

Historically, when the United States made progress at the beginning of the 20th century, Britain tried to delay providing the United States with the required technology in order to delay its rise. It did work in a short time, but in the end, the United States quickly replaced Britain. Similarly, China will also encounter some problems, but eventually there will be enough smart people to help China quickly overcome these problems.

从历史上看，当美国在20世纪初取得进展时，英国试图推迟向美国提供所需的技术，以期延缓其崛起。这在很短的时间内确实奏效了，但最终，美国迅速取代了英国。同样，中国也会遇到一些麻烦，但最终会有足够多的聪明人帮助中国迅速克服这些麻烦。

The refusal of US high-tech companies to use rare earth elements is even more worrying. This mutual denial of technology and resources will be very harmful to both countries. It is inconceivable that the United States cannot overcome the blockade of rare earth elements. Even if both countries can overcome the blockade, they will bear higher costs and suffer from it.

美国高科技公司拒绝使用稀土元素更令人担忧。这种相互否认技术和资源的做法将对两国都非常有害。美国无法克服稀土元素封锁，这是不可思议的。即使两国都能克服封锁，他们也将承受更高的成本，并因此受到伤害。

稀土矿

The above results are reflected in the reality on the ground. The more the United States obstructs China in space technology, the more difficult it will be for China to break through China's Beidou positioning system. In 165 countries, China's Beidou has surpassed the GPS of the United States. The same applies to space stations.

上述结果体现在实地的现实中。美国在太空技术方面越是阻挠中国，中国就越难以突破中国的北斗定位系统。在165个国家，中国的北斗超过了美国的GPS。这同样适用于空间站。

Previously, the United States banned Chinese from participating in their space station project. Soon, the only space station will be China's space station, and China rejects the participation of the United States. The technology competition reported in the Harvard Report well explains the competition between China and the United States, which will provide some guidance for the future.

此前，美国禁止中国人参与他们的空间站项目。很快，唯一的空间站将是中国的空间站，中国拒绝美国的参与。《哈佛报告》（Harvard Report）所报道的技术竞赛很好地诠释了中美之间的竞争，这将为未来提供一些指引。

In short, if the United States cuts off the supply of key components from Chinese technology companies to the United States, it will not be able to restore the competitiveness of the United States and consolidate its absolute technological advantage in the world. These hard data show the future outline of China's rise. The Harvard report clearly shows that China will win the technology competition in the future. It would be futile for Biden to lead the United States to deny the truth. If the United States wants to continue to prosper with China, it must make a wise response. China's rise is unstoppable.

总之，美国切断中国科技公司对美国关键零部件的供应，将无法恢复美国的竞争力，巩固其在全球的绝对技术优势。这些硬数据显示了中国崛起的未来轮廓。哈佛报告清楚地表明，中国将在未来的技术竞赛中获胜。拜登领导美国否认事实将导致徒劳。如果美国要继续与中国繁荣，就必须做出明智的反应，中国的崛起势不可挡。

新加坡网友亨瑞•杨的回答

No, in the overall situation, it is not enough to have the most advanced tools, designs and experts. What is important is logistics, management, market, capital and incremental changes.

不，从大局来看，拥有最先进的工具、设计和专家实际上是不够的，重要的是物流、管理、市场、资金、增量变化。

The biggest problem of adopting the method of cutting technology from China is not that China will develop on its own (possibly in some areas, but unlikely). Two bigger problems are that this will occupy a large part of the income, otherwise it can provide funds for further projects and operations... Because of our tough approach, almost all countries in the technology industry will start to exclude the technology and industrial chain of the United States to protect themselves and their interests, which will cut off our ties.

采用从中国削减技术的方法最大的问题不是中国将自行发展（可能在某些领域，但不太可能）。两个更大的问题是，这将占用一大部分收入，否则可以为进一步的项目和运营提供资金……由于我们的强硬做法，几乎所有科技行业的国家都将开始排斥美国的科技和产业链，以保护他们自己和他们的利益，这会切断我们的联系。

It is really ignorant to claim that China has no innovative work. They are also the source of a great deal of technology. Although the United States dominates, we also need some of their technology to make everything work. But if the United States cut off the ties on its own initiative, we will lose our direction. We do not know what they are doing, nor what they are doing with other countries and non American companies. It is necessary to be vigilant, but don't be short sighted or stupid.

声称中国没有创新工作，这真是无知。他们也是大量技术的来源。尽管美国占主导地位，但我们也需要他们的一些技术来让一切都运转起来。但如果美国主动切断联系，我们就会失去方向，我们不知道他们在做什么，也不知道他们在和其他国家和非美国公司做什么。保持警惕是必要的，但不要短视和愚蠢。

Therefore, my answer to this question is absolutely negative. This will not help us become more competitive, more dominant or more secure.

所以，我对这个问题的回答是绝对否定的。这不会帮助我们变得更具竞争力、更具统治力或更安全。

No logical or educated person would believe that simply restricting China's access to American supplies or technology would ensure the dominance of the United States in this field.

任何逻辑和受过教育的人都不会相信，仅仅限制中国获得美国的供应或技术，就能确保美国在这一领域的主导地位。

Moreover, they have a large number of STEM graduates in China, and the International Science Olympics has been dominated by Chinese students. Together with their economic strength and the government's concern for technological progress, the situation will only get better.

而且中国他们有大量的STEM毕业生，国际科学奥林匹克竞赛已经由中国学生主导。再加上他们的经济实力和政府对技术进步的关注，情况只会变得更好。

Other countries also have smart students and great scientists. The education system of other developed countries is not as backward as that of the United States. Advanced European countries also have smart scientists. Who can say that their abilities must be inferior to those of American scientists?

其他国家也有聪明的学生和了不起的科学家。其他发达国家的教育系统并不像美国那样落后。先进的欧洲国家也有聪明的科学家。谁能说他们的能力一定不如美国科学家呢？

Americans should stop believing that they are the "choice of God" and the outstanding people who dominate the world. Learn to accept the fact that there are other smart people on the planet, whether they are from Europe, Africa or Asia.

美国人应该停止相信自己是“上帝的选择”，是主宰世界的杰出人物。学会接受这个事实，这个星球上还有其他聪明人，无论是来自欧洲、非洲还是亚洲。

The obsession with "exceptionalism" is driving the United States back. Whenever another country seems to be making progress, Americans try to drag it down. Why not spend energy on research and development? This is the only way to maintain progress and innovation, so that you can stay ahead. Know that technological progress is an endless journey for mankind.

对“例外主义”的痴迷正使美国倒退。每当另一个国家似乎取得进展时，美国人都会努力将其拖垮。为什么不把精力花在研究和开发上呢？这是保持进步和创新的唯一途径，这样你就能保持领先，要知道技术进步是人类永无止境的旅程。