「龙腾网」网友讨论：英国是否还有成为超级大国的可能？

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Alex Anderson Follow
The UK already is a global superpower, so your question is completely wrong.
We were number 1 in the world in the Soft Power 30 Rankings (which is all power that is non military in nature) and the UK has been number 1 for several years ahead of China, Russia, the US (we are currently number 2 for 2019 with France above us, but we have been number 1 for far more years than them overall)
Here is the lix:
Soft Power 30
There is more to being a superpower than just having lots of tanks and troops. Many countries have large armies yet get conquered by seemingly small nations.

英国已经是一个全球超级大国了，所以你的问题是完全错误的。
在软实力30强排名(所有非军事性质的力量)中，我们是世界第一，英国在之前几年一直是超越中国、俄罗斯和美国的存在(2019年我们排名第二，法国在我们之上，但我们排名第一的时间比他们的总体时间长得多)。
下面是链接:
软实力排名30强（链接）
要成为超级大国，不仅仅是要拥有大量的坦克和军队。许多国家拥有庞大的军队，但却被看起来很小的国家征服。
Being a superpower is about having global diplomatic reach, cultural and business influence, being able to get along with others and playing a massive influence in the world. The UK leads the world in many areas, including high tech engineering, education and science, financial markets (e.g forex, derivatives, international bonds, insurance), business services, oil and gas, mining, pharmaceuticals, jet engine design, carbon neutral technologies to name a few.
We also have the Commonwealth of Nations which we head, and 3 independent military partnerships outside of NATO, including the UK Joint Expeditionary Force, the Combined Joint Expeditionary Force with France, and defence agreements with Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand. So on the military front we are right at the top league with massive strategic reach across all of Europe and the whole world.
The UK is a global superpower today and will continue to be a mighty force to be reckoned with.

成为超级大国意味着拥有全球外交影响力、文化和商业影响力，能够与他人和睦相处，并在世界上发挥巨大的影响力。英国在许多领域都处于世界领先地位，包括高科技工程、教育和科学、金融市场(如外汇、衍生品、国际债券、保险)、商业服务、石油和天然气、采矿、制药、喷气发动机设计、碳中和技术等。
我们还领导着英联邦国家，以及北约之外的3个独立军事伙伴关系，包括英国联合远征军，与法国的联合远征军，以及与新加坡、澳大利亚、马来西亚和新西兰的防务协议。因此，在军事方面，我们在整个欧洲乃至世界范围内都处于领先地位。
如今，英国是一个全球超级大国，并将继续成为一股不可忽视的强大力量。
Anonymous
I am sorry I just saw this and needed to comment. What on earth are you on about. Your whole comment is ridiculous and inaccurate.
USA did not even join the war until around 2 years after it actually started. Even when they did start, its not like they ‘won’ the war because it carried on for another ~4 years. UK held off the Germans and won the Battle of Britain, against a much larger air force. This was all while US ‘didn’t realise there was a world war going on’. USA has a land mass almost equal to the whole of Europe. Therefore, it has a large resource. So, of course after a 2 year war, with modern and devastating weaponry, the UK needed more resources. No nation could last forever in a war it has prepared for. It requires men to fight, resources to keep those men fighting and of course, money.

我很抱歉，我刚刚看到这个，就不得不发表评论。你到底在说什么，你的整个评论是荒谬和不准确的。
美国是在直到二战真正开始的两年后才加入战争的。即使他们真的一开始就参战了，他们也不像是他们所说的那样“赢得”了战争，因为战争又持续了大约4年。是英国击退了德国人，打败了更强大的德国空军，赢得了不列颠空战。这一切都发生在美国“没有意识到世界大战正在进行”的时候。美国的国土面积几乎相当于整个欧洲。因此，它有很大的资源储备。所以，在经历了两年的战争之后，即便是拥有现代化的毁灭性武器的英国也需要更多的资源。任何一个国家都不可能在一场自己准备不足的战争中永远存在下去。它需要人去战斗，需要资源让这些人继续战斗，当然，还需要钱。
The German army was built with the purpose of taking over Europe and was something the Germans were planning for years. They struck hard and fast. They then had access to a lot more resources. So yes, to win the war an alliance was required, but it wasn't to help prevent Germany take over Britain… they had already given up by the time US started in the war. It was required to liberate the rest of Europe which had been taken over and remove a fascist from power.
A US puppet? The US still works with the UK in terms of special forces, intelligence gathering, scientific breakthroughs and much more. What do you mean the UK nuclear deterrent is controlled by the US? what nonsense is that? The submarines that carry the trident missiles are UK made, controlled by UK with a Royal Navy crew based at UK naval ports. Those submarines answer to the Prime Minister of the united Kingdom, not the US.

二战前德国建立军队的目的就是接管欧洲，这是德国人计划了多年的事情。他们迅速而有力地出击，因此他们可以获得更多的资源。所以，是的，为了赢得战争，联盟是必需的，但这并不是为了帮助英国人抗击德国入侵英国，美国在战争开始的时候就已经放弃了。它被要求解放被占领的欧洲其他地区，并把那个法西斯分子赶下政权。
英国是美国的傀儡吗? 美国至今仍在特种部队、情报收集、科学突破等方面与英国合作。你说英国的核威慑力量被美国控制是什么意思? 这是什么鬼话? 携带三叉戟导弹的潜艇是英国制造的，由英国皇家海军在英国海军港口控制。那些潜艇听命于英国首相，而不是美国。
UK has one of the highest military budgets in the world, around 7th I believe. The UK still has an influential economy, being in top 10 strongest economies in the world. A great contributor to space technology, and many other technologies.
So I repeat, I am sorry but your comment is totally misguided an lacking facts. The UK is still a key player in the world with much influence. On the question as to whether it could become a superpower again? Maybe not no, given the technologies of today and the alliances such as NATO and UN. The dye is set. In the developed world, the UK would never invade or take over countries in the present day as it did hundreds of years ago. The chances are only countries that still have large land masses, and therefore resources, will be able to remain or become super powers. However, never say never. Empires come and go.
But the UK will always be a big contributor to the world, and one of the strongest countries in the world.

英国是世界上军事预算最高的国家之一，我记得在世界排名第7位左右。英国仍然是一个有影响力的经济体，是世界上最强大的10大经济体之一。它对太空技术和许多其他技术的发展都做出了巨大贡献。
所以我重复一遍，我很抱歉，但你的评论完全是错误的，缺乏事实。英国仍然是世界上具有重要影响力的国家。关于英国能否再次成为超级大国的问题? 考虑到今天的技术以及北约和联合国这样的联盟的存在，也许不会。在发达国家，英国绝不会像几百年前那样，在今天入侵或接管其他国家。只有那些仍然拥有大量土地和资源的国家，才有可能保持或成为超级大国。但是，永远不要说永远。帝国起起伏伏。
但英国永远是世界的重要贡献者，永远是世界上最强大的国家之一。
Peter Hawkins Follow
No, it doesn't. Our lack of superpowerness is nothing to do with the deficit either (America has a large deficit, and is the world's only hyperpower).
We are not a superpower because:
1. Economy not big enough to be one because
2. Population not big enough
3. So we can't afford the size of military that is necessary to be a superpower or hyperpower
In the past, we circumvented points 1 and 2 by having a large empire that we could exploit for men and treasure. This funded our awesome navy, which was the backbone of our military might. We also had the advantage of being first movers in the industrial revolution.
The only way we will ever be a superpower again (if you care about that sort of thing. Personally I don't) would be as part of a United States of Europe. Not much chance of that happening anytime soon.

不, 它不是。我们不能成为超级大国也与赤字无关(美国有巨大的赤字，是世界上唯一的超级大国)。
我们不是超级大国，因为:
1. 我们的经济规模还不够大
2. 我们的人口不够多
3. 所以我们负担不起成为超级大国所需的军事规模
在过去，我们通过拥有一个庞大的帝国而满足了第1点和第2点。这为我们强大的海军提供了资金，这是我们军事力量的中坚力量。我们还拥有工业革命先行者的优势。
我们再次成为超级大国的唯一途径(如果你关心这类事情的话，我个人认为这不可能了)是成为欧盟的一部分。但这种情况短期内不大可能发生。
Paul M Calvert Follow
Why on earth would we want to? We've seen the film, bought the book and worn the t-shirt. Done it once, never again.
It's expensive, thankless and costly in lives. America wanted to be top dog and we were tired after fighting two world wars and happy to give it all up. It's no coincidence that the "fall" of empire coincided with the rise in the living standards of the common people.
The potential is there, certainly, but what's the point? Where's the profit or advantage in spending a goodly proportion of your GDP on arms when another country is happy to do so, and for what?
By the way, in terms of culture and soft power we are a super power. Far cheaper.

我们为什么要这么做? 我们看过这部电影，买了这本书，穿了那件t恤。我们已经做过一次了，但绝不会再做第二次。
它的代价是昂贵的，吃力不讨好的，甚至还要付出生命的代价。美国想要称霸世界，而打了两次世界大战之后我们累了，所以很高兴放弃一切。帝国的“衰落”与平民生活水平的提高同时发生，这绝非巧合。
当然，我们的潜力是存在的，但有什么意义呢? 当另一个国家很乐意这样做的时候，把GDP的很大一部分花在武器上有什么利润或优势呢?
顺便说一下，就文化和软实力而言，我们一直是一个超级大国。而这方面的成本要便宜得多。
Siddharth Pathak Follow
No - at least not in the next few centuries.
The last time UK became the top dog was because the Asian powers were going through their natural cyclical downturn: the Qing dynasty was overstretched by the 1850s, the Mughal dynasty was similarly weakened by the tides of time, and Southeast Asian dynasties largely followed them, with the exception of Ayutthya in Siam (modern day Thailand) and Konbaung dynasty in modern day Myanmar. But even Konbaung dynasty was overpowered by the British due to the Pyrrhic victory it had over Ayutthya.

不，至少在接下来的几个世纪里不会。
上一次英国成为霸主，是因为亚洲列强正在经历他们的自然周期衰退期: 清朝在19世纪50年代过度扩张，莫卧儿王朝同样被时间的潮汐削弱，东南亚的王朝基本上都在效仿他们，除了暹罗的大城王朝(今天的泰国)和今天的缅甸的康邦王朝。但即使是康邦王朝也因为打败了阿尤提亚而败给了英国人。
The European powers just happened to be in Asia around the time when a number of very powerful dynasties were undergoing through their cyclical downturn. But since humans are very lousy observers of understanding changes and trends over time periods running longer than the average lifespan, we attribute the rise of the Western powers occurring due to some inherent superiority these powers held over the Asian and African (and the rest of the world) regions. This characterization, which is believed almost to be a fact completely leaves out the role colonialism and the massively skewed power dynamics had in making European powers the de facto top dogs of the world. UK became a superpower backed by an unwilling Subcontinent of a rich bounty of resources, became the world’s largest trader bootstrapping the natural dominance India held, and by the end of the 1800s destroyed India’s industrial base to expand its economy.

欧洲列强恰好在亚洲当时的一些非常强大的王朝正在经历周期性的衰退期间进入。但是，由于人类在理解超过平均寿命的时间外的变化和趋势方面是非常糟糕的观察者，我们将西方强国的崛起归因于这些强国对亚洲和非洲(以及世界其他地区)拥有一些固有的优势。这种被认为几乎是事实的描述完全忽略了殖民主义和严重扭曲的权力动态在使欧洲列强成为事实上的世界霸主方面所起的作用。英国成为了一个超级大国，得到了一个拥有丰富资源的次大陆的支持，凭借印度拥有的自然优势成为了世界上最大的贸易商，并在19世纪末摧毁了印度的工业基础以扩张其经济。
All of these factors were chief reasons behind the elevation of UK to becoming a superpower.
But times have changed, and no longer are Asian countries in a quagmire. They are expanding their economies, leveraging newer political organization systems and throwing away the dinosaurs of the past, and in the process dramatically altering the Eurocentric world that most of the people in the West consider as given.
In such an environment, if the UK tries to achieve dominance by revisiting its past methods, I am sorry to say, but it will just trigger a very widespread vengeance which the former colonies wouldn’t hesitate to take it to the state of war. Majority of narratives in India, China and other countries which suffered badly from colonialism are about how the Europeans gained an unfair advantage by pillaging the local civilizations and destroying the essence of being Chinese or Indian, and the same time destroying the identities’ self esteem. That is the reason why development in these countries, apart from being about elevating local living standards, are also about “showing” to the world, and claiming their lost self respect in the world.

所有这些因素都是英国成为超级大国的主要原因。
但时代变了，亚洲国家不再陷入泥潭。他们正在扩张自己的经济，利用更新的政治组织体系，抛弃过去的老古董，并在这个过程中戏剧性地改变了大多数西方人认为理所当然的以欧洲为中心的世界。
在这样的环境下，如果英国试图通过重走过去的道路来获得统治地位，我很遗憾地说，这只会引发广泛的报复，前殖民地会毫不犹豫地把它带到战争状态。在遭受殖民主义重创的印度、中国和其他国家，大多数近代历史叙事都是关于欧洲人如何通过掠夺当地文明、摧毁中国人或印度人的本质，以及同时摧毁身份的自尊，来获得了不公平的优势的。这就是为什么这些国家的发展不仅是为了提高当地的生活水平，也是为了向世界“展示”，在世界上找回他们失去的自尊。
Trying to revisit the ancient colonial era then, will be like playing with fire, and for the sake of average and commoner British people, I hope it never comes to this, because a conflict with two countries - India and China - will involve a country with 64 million people going to war with an incredibly irate, angry and emotional two countries with a combined population of 2500 million people - basically, almost complete destruction of the British identity.
The coming sets of powers which will replace the current unipolar structure will never take lightly to any attempts made by their former colonial master to become the world’s overlord again. So I would say for the sake of everyone, particularly the British people, let’s not go towards superpower dreams.

试图重拾古老的殖民时代，就像玩火自焚一样，为了普通的英国人，我希望永远不要发生这样的事情，因为与印度和中国这两个国家的冲突，将导致一个6400万人口的国家与两个愤怒的、加起来有25亿人口的国家开战——基本上，结果是完全摧毁英国的存在。
即将取代当前单极格局的一批大国，也绝不会对其前殖民主子再次成为世界霸主的任何企图掉以轻心。所以我想说，为了所有人，尤其是英国人民，让我们放弃走向超级大国的梦想。