美论坛：华为或中国能做些什么来克服美国的芯片出口限制？

上个月美国芯片公司英伟达表示美国官员要求其停止向中国出口两种用于人工智能的顶级计算机芯片，这是继特朗普时期对华为等高科技公司打压限制后的新一轮限制。此次美国限制高端芯片出口，可能带来的不利影响还是在大型实验和AI相关的商业应用等领域，比如大规模的AI训练、自动驾驶机器学习、大规模图像视频处理等，暂不会影响到终端消费电子（手机）。面对美国的重重施压限制，中国的科技公司该如何突破重围，中国将如何反制这些限制呢？中方将如何应对?

在美国论坛Quora上就有网友提出这样一个问题：我们将华为列入黑名单。看来华为已经奄奄一息了。类似的事情是否有可能发生在其他中国品牌身上?华为或其他品牌能做些什么来克服这一点或进行报复? 让我们来看看各国网友是如何看待此事的吧。

论坛话题

新加坡网友的观点

If a dog bites you, do you bite back?

如果狗咬了你，你会回咬吗?

Brazilian soccer player Pele once said: I always got beaten up by other side player, instead of hitting back, I score a goal as revenge.

巴西足球运动员贝利曾经说过:“我总是被对方球员侵犯，但我将用进球作为报复，而不是反击。”

US is using despicable tactic to attack Huawei and Chinese tech companies such as Tiktok, it means US is worrying very much since China is catching up, even taking the lead in certain technology area.

美国使用卑鄙的策略攻击华为和抖音等中国科技公司，这意味着美国非常担心，因为中国正在追赶，甚至在某些技术领域领先。

What China is doing is to build vertical integrated chip sector. Huawei is working with other Chinese companies to develop chips based on a new materiel “Graphene”, 10,000 times faster than current metal-oxide-silicon ! It is in commercialization stage !

中国正在做的是建立垂直集成芯片行业。华为正在与其他中国公司合作，开发基于一种新材料“石墨烯”的芯片，比目前的金属氧化物硅快1万倍!它正处于商业化阶段!

When US influenced EU to reject China to participant in Galileo satellite system, China builds own Beidou;

当美国影响欧盟拒绝中国加入伽利略卫星系统时，中国建造了自己的北斗系统;

US spy plane pilots use China’s satellite navigation system as backup

美国侦察机飞行员使用中国的卫星导航系统作为备用。

When US prevented China from participating space station program, by 2022 China will be the only country having space station.

当美国阻止中国参与空间站项目时，到2022年，中国将成为唯一拥有空间站的国家。

China always grow under all kinds of western accusations, attacks, and blockage. However, China will continue scoring goals !

中国总是在西方的各种指责、攻击和封锁下发展。然而，中国将继续取得进展!

马来西亚网友的观点

Thank you for the A2A. It was not a surgical strike but an all-out Total War.

谢谢你的问答。这不是外科手术式的打击，而是一场全面战争。

Huawei has repelled waves upon waves of attacks from the USA. It began when the Australians, in an internal hacker simulation, highlighted the vulnerability of 5G to attacks. The 5 Eyes decided that, with many other classified reasons, to take on Huawei.

华为击退了来自美国的一波又一波攻击。在一次内部黑客模拟中，澳大利亚人强调了5G易受攻击的弱点。由于许多其他机密原因，5眼决定与华为竞争。

Market Closure:

• 市场封闭

Telcos in the USA were discouraged from using HW phones citing national security issues. Australia and NZ fired the first salvo by blocking HW. Presumably, it fitted their geopolitical strategy because their influence in French-Polynesia was challenged by HW tech used in laying undersea fibreoptics in that region. There is a possibility that they may lose surveillance of communication of that region.

美国的电信公司被禁止使用华为手机，理由是国家安全问题。澳大利亚和新西兰率先封锁了华为。据推测，这符合他们的地缘政治战略，因为他们在法属波利尼西亚的影响力受到了在该地区铺设海底光纤的华为技术的挑战。他们有可能失去对该地区通讯的监视。

Discredit:

怀疑

Accused HW of stealing some tech on testing wear and tear many decades ago. World at large not quite bothered.

被指控在几十年前窃取了一些磨损测试技术。整个世界并不太在意。

Propaganda:

鼓吹

To weaken market confidence and adoption: they, cajoled their Allies in Europe and NATO not to use any HW hardware. It failed because there were no alternatives and current 4G hardware, backdoors and clouds are known to be used to keep European governments and peoples under surveillance. The rhetoric was that HW could be a potential culprit which after repeated testing in the UK and Germany failed to validate these accusations. So, it indirectly strengthened HW’s position- being cheap, safe, advanced and good. In Asia, some US adherents like Thailand, etc broke ranks to adopt HW 5G. The smartphone market and telcos didn't buy in either.

为了削弱市场的信心和接受度，他们哄骗欧洲和北约的盟友不要使用任何硬件。它之所以失败，是因为没有替代方案，而且众所周知，目前的4G硬件、后门和云被用来监视欧洲政府和人民。他们的说法是，华为可能是一个潜在的罪魁祸首，但在英国和德国进行了多次测试后，这些指控都没有得到证实。因此，它间接加强了华为的地位——便宜、安全、先进、优质。在亚洲，一些美国拥护者，如泰国等，打破常规，采用华为 5G。智能手机市场和电信公司也不买账。

Kidnap:

绑架

Meng the CFO, heir apparent, was kidnapped in Canada and waiting for extradition to the USA. HW was singled out amongst companies from all nations,including the US, to face these charges.

首席财务官孟晚舟，准继承人，在加拿大被绑架，等待引渡到美国。HW被包括美国在内的所有国家的公司挑出来面对这些指控。

Bombing Logistic/ R&D/ Software support

后勤/研发/软件支持

Now by putting HW and associates on the Entity list, the supply chain is under very comprehensive assault- from software/ apps/hardware to chip design- everything that makes the smartphone tick.

现在，通过将华为及其合作伙伴列入实体名单，供应链受到了非常全面的攻击——从软件/应用程序/硬件到芯片设计——所有让智能手机运转的东西。

Ren came forth and said that all is well.

任正非说，一切皆在掌控。

ZTE caved from chips alone. Given the same level of attack, I doubt even Apple or Samsung can survive. What this campaign will demonstrate, if HW survives, is that it is genuinely a class of its own. A Tech superpower failed to take down a Tech company- David vs Goliath story.

中兴仅在芯片业务上让步。考虑到同样的攻击水平，我怀疑即使是苹果或三星也能生存下去。如果华为能幸存下来，这场运动将证明它是一个真正独立的阶级。一个科技超级大国没能拿下一家科技公司——大卫vs歌利亚的故事。

Targeting HW on the pretext of punishing a “cheating/stealing’ Nation is interesting: Their 5G is more advanced than anything the West has to offer. They pay a huge sum of IP fees to their American suppliers. They imported huge amounts of parts from various tech companies rather than reverse engineering. Their product i.e. smartphones are cutting edge and arguably better than Apple. They have no market in the USA. Hence the stealing job/ cheating IP argument against HW is preposterous. So what you have is a Tech poster boy being crucified by the US government for sins that it doesn’t have.

以惩罚“作弊/偷窃”国家为借口瞄准华为很有趣：他们的5G比西方提供的任何东西都更先进。他们向美国供应商支付了一大笔知识产权费用。他们从各种科技公司进口大量零部件，而不是逆向工程。他们的产品，比如智能手机，是最先进的，可以说比苹果更好。他们在美国没有市场。因此，针对华为的窃取工作/欺骗知识产权的论点是荒谬的。所以你看到的是一个科技海报男孩被美国政府钉在十字架上，因为它没有的罪。

At the moment, superficially China is not doing much. it may support HW in many other ways. But the active media and ground war is taken on by Ren himself. He put a venerable face to HW leadership as opposed to the evil Romans- the crucifixion of his baby- the HW company.

目前，从表面上看，中国并没有做太多的事情。它可能在许多其他方面支持硬件。但活跃的媒体和地面战是由任正非本人承担的。他以一种庄严的面孔面对华为的领导，而不是邪恶的罗马人——他的孩子被钉在十字架上——华为公司。

It seems that HW has mastered story-telling and beating the USA not only in technology but also the old hand in propaganda. This will be a story befitting of legends.

看来华为已经掌握了讲故事的技巧，不仅在技术上打败了美国，而且在宣传方面也打败了美国。这将是一个适合传奇的故事。

I couldnt understand why Trump targeted HW as a security risk and then wanted HW in the trade deal. Doesnt make cock and bull sense.

我不明白为什么特朗普把华为作为安全风险，然后希望华为参与贸易协议。没有道理。

So all this Trade tariff fanfare. Seems that HW is the prize.

所有这些贸易关税的大肆宣传。看起来像是帮华为做了个广告。

日本网友的观点

When pushed against the wall Huawei will overcome the adversary since it had proven to be a very Creative company and also China is behind the company. A little history of Toshiba of Japan. The company was not supported by Japan. Read this *Why do Western countries seemingly dislike China's success?*

当华为被推到墙上时，它会战胜对手，因为它已经被证明是一个非常有创造力的公司，而且中国也在背后支持它。介绍一下日本东芝公司的历史。该公司没有得到日本的支持。阅读本文*为什么西方国家似乎不喜欢中国的成功?＊

Chia Hak Thye, a former General Insurance Manager, now retired has threw some lights of American’s poor behaviour!

现在退休的前综合保险经理贾学泰(Chia Hak Thye)揭露了美国人的不良行为!

*Toshiba yesterday, Huawei today!*

*昨天东芝，今天华为!＊

Thirty years ago, Toshiba exported precision instruments to Russia. The United States has imposed the following penalties on Toshiba Group:-

30年前，东芝向俄罗斯出口精密仪器。美国对东芝集团施加了下列处罚:-

1) The Japanese Police Department was ordered to arrest Erhe Lin, the President of Toshiba Machinery Foundry, and Hiroshima Tanamura, the President of Machine Tool Business, and both were sentenced to 10 years' imprisonment.

1)日本警察厅接到命令，逮捕东芝机械铸造厂总统的林二和和机床商业总统的田村广岛，判处10年有期徒刑。

2) Closing Toshiba's plants in the United States.

2)关闭东芝在美国的工厂。

3) A 100% tariff was imposed on Toshiba products sold to the United States.

3)对出口到美国的东芝产品征收100%的关税。

4) Toshiba's exports to the United States were banned for five years.

4)东芝禁止对美出口5年

5) A huge fine of 1 trillion yen was imposed on Toshiba, equivalent to $16 billion today.

5)东芝被处以1万亿日元的巨额罚款，相当于今天的160亿美元。

In order to calm the anger of the United States, Japan has imposed severe penalties on Toshiba Group:

为了平息美国的愤怒，日本对东芝集团进行了严厉的处罚:

Firstly, Japan's semiconductor industry will unconditionally share its technology with American companies.

首先，日本半导体产业将无条件地与美国企业分享技术。

Secondly, Toshiba spent 100 million yen to publish a full-page apology advertisement in all major newspapers in the United States.

其次，东芝花费1亿日元在美国各大报纸上刊登整版道歉广告。

Thirdly, Japan Semiconductor Association invested 9 million US dollars to launch various relations lobbying in the US Congress, and this lobbying has become the most costly lobbying war in history.

第三，日本半导体协会投资900万美元，在美国国会发起各种关系游说，这一游说已成为史上最昂贵的游说战。

Fourthly, both the Chairman and General Manager of Toshiba Group resigned.

第四，东芝集团董事长和总经理双双辞职。

Fifthly, by an administrative order issued by the Ministry of Communications, Toshiba is prohibited from exporting any products to 14 countries for a period of one year.

第五，根据交通部发布的行政命令，东芝公司在一年内禁止向14个国家出口任何产品。

The United States is the master of Japan and Japan can only apologize; which led to Toshiba gradually losing its past glory.

美国是日本的主人，日本只能道歉;这使得东芝逐渐失去了往日的辉煌。

Toshiba was the hope of Japan's science and technology industry, and also the hope and pillar of Japan's manufacturing. After suffering a heavy blow from the United States, Toshiba went downhill thoroughly.

东芝是日本科技产业的希望，也是日本制造业的希望和支柱。在遭受美国的沉重打击后，东芝彻底走下坡路了。

The U.S. attacked Toshiba not because it sold equipments to the Soviet Union, but because it affected U.S. interests. The United States believed that the Japanese semiconductor industry represented by Toshiba Group seriously threatened the economic interests of the United States, while the Japanese high-end manufacturing plans threatened the United States and challenged the technological hegemony of the United States.

美国攻击东芝，不是因为它向苏联出售设备，而是因为它影响了美国的利益。美国认为，以东芝集团为代表的日本半导体产业严重威胁美国的经济利益，日本高端制造计划威胁美国，挑战美国的技术霸权。

Looking back more than 30 years ago, the experience and outcome of Toshiba Group and now, what the United States is doing today, there are indeed many similarities.

回顾30多年前，东芝集团的经历和成果，以及今天美国的所作所为，确实有很多相似之处。

The United States does not allow its high-end manufacturing industry to be challenged at all, nor does it allows its technological hegemony to be challenged. The United States hopes that other countries will all be American workers and will never allow other countries to become shareholders of American interests.

美国绝不允许自己的高端制造业受到挑战，也不允许自己的技术霸权受到挑战。美国希望其他国家都是美国工人，绝不允许其他国家成为美国利益的股东。

*Now targeting Huawei!*

*现在针对华为!＊

*4G belongs to United States’ AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and Sprint.* The world's countries pay more than *10,000 trillion yuan* in copyright fees to the four companies in the United States. China's 4G pays US$100 million in annual copyright fees to US companies. If the countries around the world switch to Huawei 5G, the United States will lose more than 10,000 billion yuan of foreign exchange each year, which is set at 20% of the annual GDP of the United States.

*4G属于美国AT&T、Verizon、T-Mobile和Sprint。全世界向美国的四家公司支付的版权费用超过1万亿元。中国4G每年向美国公司支付1亿美元的版权费。如果全球各国都改用华为5G，美国每年将损失超过1万亿人民币的外汇，相当于美国每年GDP的20%。

Therefore, the United States will not allow Huawei 5G into the world.

因此，美国不会允许华为5G进入世界。

The United States will destroy Huawei to protect the interests of the United States; i.e. stopping the loss of at least 20% of USA's GDP. *What a big bully !!!.*

美国将摧毁华为以保护美国利益;也就是说，阻止美国GDP至少20%的损失。真是个大恶霸!

Let the world knows the true & ulterior reason for USA's insistence on bringing down Huawei.

让世界知道美国坚持扳倒华为的真实和别有用心的原因。

Huawei will be my next phone.

华为将是我的下一部手机。

美国网友的观点

I think China can do many things. If this is trade war then China can single out American car companies and shut them from Chinese market. If China do that , then GM and Ford will disappear from existence because the others car makers will take their market shares overnight.

我认为中国可以做很多事情。如果这是贸易战，那么中国可以单独挑出美国汽车公司，把它们关在中国市场之外。如果中国这样做，那么通用汽车和福特将消失，因为其他汽车制造商将在一夜之间夺走他们的市场份额。

This means 200,000 auto jobs will be lost. If America can single out any company for security threat without proof then China can single out any American without proof.

这意味着汽车行业将失去20万个工作岗位。如果美国可以在没有证据的情况下挑出任何公司作为安全威胁，那么中国也可以挑出任何没有证据的美国人。

I think American is playing a dangerous game here.

我认为美国在玩一场危险的游戏。

Anyway. I think we are just too afraid of China becoming a superpower modern nation.

无论如何。我认为我们只是太害怕中国成为一个超级现代国家。

Perhaps we can still compete. Chinese wages are already starting to go up but sad news is our workers in the USA are also demanding higher wages even for low skill jobs. So that means we will not be able to compete with China unless we implement some new sets of work design and logistics to make manufacturing much cheaper and more efficient.

也许我们仍然可以竞争。中国的工资已经开始上涨了，但不幸的是，我们在美国的工人甚至对低技能的工作也要求更高的工资。因此，这意味着我们将无法与中国竞争，除非我们实施一些新的工作设计和物流，使制造业更便宜、更高效。

I think we could if we put more efforts in.

我想如果我们再努力一点就可以了。

Many inventions are from very simple ideas. Perhaps simple ideas need simple solutions.

许多发明都来自于非常简单的想法。也许简单的想法需要简单的解决方案。

But China being honorable nation might not do such things. Democrats in the USA used to use similar honor principles but now probably have abandoned integrity.

但是中国作为一个可敬的国家可能不会做这样的事情。美国的民主党人曾经使用过类似的荣誉原则，但现在可能已经抛弃了正直。

Anyway, being only two years away from new elections I think Trump will act fast to make a deal with China to make life easier for everybody. He will then concentrate more effort in immigration reform.

无论如何，距离新选举只有两年时间了，我认为特朗普会迅速行动起来，与中国达成协议，让每个人的生活更轻松。然后，他将把更多的精力集中在移民改革上。

Also, We normally use the courts to sue any company for stealing technologies and even have to prove infringement but now we use executive orders using security reasons instead which in itself is great and quick but then this creates major issues if the other side follows our concept of executive order. This whole world will be a mess.

此外，我们通常使用法院起诉任何窃取技术的公司，甚至必须证明侵权，但现在我们使用行政命令，使用安全理由，这本身是伟大的和迅速的，但这造成了重大问题，如果另一方遵循我们的行政命令的概念。整个世界都会变得一团糟。

I used to support Trump but now starting to have doubt on current solutions he is using to fix things in our nation. Looks good on the surface for many Americans but it looks like we are playing dirty somehow.

我过去支持特朗普，但现在开始怀疑他目前用来解决我们国家问题的解决方案。对许多美国人来说，表面上看起来很好，但看起来我们在用某种方式玩肮脏的游戏。