美国论坛：台积电搬到美国后，美国会抛弃台湾吗？华裔留言回击

众所周知，全球许多芯片巨头都在中国生产芯片。比如，台积电在南京有一家工厂，目前生产16纳米和28纳米芯片；三星在西安有一家大型存储芯片生产工厂；SK海力士在无锡和大连拥有存储芯片工厂；美国的英特尔和美光科技都在中国拥有芯片封装和测试工厂。前段时间，为与中国竞争，美国推出2800亿美元的《芯片与科学法案》。设想在5年内投资2800亿美元，让美国在全球技术优势竞争中领先于中国。

美国最新芯片法案将迫使企业在中美之间做出选择。该芯片法案明面上是限制中国获得先进技术，实质上是将外企在中国的先进制造能力，也是高毛利的制造能力转移到美国。目前，台积电在美国设厂的计划也在进行中，裴洛西访台其很大一个任务就是为台积电而来的。对此，国外网友也有话要说，在美国论坛上，就有网友发起这样一个话题：台积电搬到美国后，美国会放弃台湾吗?

让我们来看看民间各国网友对此事的观点！

论坛话题：台积电搬到美国后，美国会放弃台湾吗?

美籍华人博士的观点

I am from Taiwan. I don’t know what the US will do, but I know a vey, very popular opinion, almost a faith, in Taiwan that, since TSMC is such a world-beating top technological giant in the entire human history (This is really the picture. It is often likened to the 4000 m Mount Yu in Taiwan as The Protector Mountain), there is no way the US will give up on Taiwan.

我来自台湾。我不知道美国会怎么做，但我知道一个非常流行的观点，几乎是一种信念，在台湾，既然台积电是整个人类历史上如此世界一流的技术巨头(这是真的图片。它经常被比作4000米高的台湾玉山的保护山)，美国不可能放弃台湾。

“As long as we have TSMC, Taiwan is saved!”

“只要我们有台积电，台湾就会得救!”

To which I often answer that there is no technology in TSMC’s repertoire that the US cannot deploy in 2–3 years if it bothered to.

对此，我经常回答说，台积电的所有技术中，哪项都不能在美国在2-3年内部署。

Therefore, I am quite curious as to what these people are thinking now that TSMC is forced to eventually relocate to Arizona.

因此，我很好奇这些人在台积电最终被迫搬迁到亚利桑那州后是怎么想的。

The US doesn’t actually care about Taiwan all they are interested in is making sure they get whatever they want when they want it and this demand is an example of that.

美国实际上并不关心台湾，他们感兴趣的是确保他们在想要的时候得到任何他们想要的，这个要求就是一个例子。

中国台湾芯片教父：张忠谋

China has been saying for a long time that they will NOT attack Taiwan UNLESS Taiwan claims independence or if they allow any foreign troops to set up in Taiwan.

中国长期以来一直表示，除非湾湾声称独立或允许外国军队在台驻扎，否则他们不会攻击他们。

TSMC must comply with whatever US demands. All the semiconductor experts cannot figure out why and cannot see any benefit for TSMC US production, because their clients are in China. TSMC makes chips in US to ship to China, while it has plants in Taiwan and China with more than enough capacities. BTW, Intel had semiconductor factory in China too.

台积电必须遵守美国的任何要求。即便是所有的半导体专家都搞不清楚原因，也看不到台积电在美国生产的任何好处，因为他们的客户在中国。台积电在美国生产芯片，然后出口到中国大陆，而该公司在台湾和中国大陆的工厂产能绰绰有余。顺便说一下，英特尔在中国也有半导体工厂。

It is understandable that the US is very concerned that all TSMC’s tech ends up in Chinese hands but ‘insisting’ that TSMC build six chip fabs in Arizona’ is the best approach they can think of? A bit of politeness may be a better but the US seems not to do ‘politeness.’

美国非常担心台积电的所有技术最终落入中国人手中，这是可以理解的，但“坚持”台积电在亚利桑那州建造6个芯片厂是他们能想到的最好方法?礼貌一点可能更好，但美国人似乎不讲“礼貌”。

I also believe that TSMC tech would be seen by Taiwan and TSMC as being far to valuable to allow the US to lay hands on even one of them so that the US can steal their tech. How about the US buy some at a fair price of a few $ billion if the US wants the tech and that’s a good price given that as soon as the US has one of their fabricators the US will make copies and by then it’s too late for TSMC to close the door.

我也相信,台积电科技将被台湾,台积电是有价值甚至让美国得到其中一个,这样我们可以偷他们的技术。对美国如何以一个合理的价格买几个十亿美元如果美国想要的技术,这是一个很好的价格给,只要美国的制造商美国将复印和那时太晚了对台积电关上门。

美国网友的观点

We don't expect them to. It has already started. I've been saying since 2018, TSMC is vulnerable having no production in USA. But having factories in USA will open them up to intellectual theft. USA needs TSMC chips. If China stopped that flow we'd be unable to match them at first. But that doesn't make a difference if nuclear weapons are dropped.

我们不希望他们这样做。它已经开始了。我从2018年就一直在说，台积电在美国没有生产是很脆弱的。但在美国建厂会让他们面临技术被窃取的情况。美国需要台积电芯片。如果中国阻止了这种流动，我们一开始就无法与他们相比。但如果放弃核武器，那也没有什么区别。

US Senate announced a $54 b. subsidy package for the chip industry, lntel Corp. and Samsung Electronics are also in on the act with TSMC the front runner already having an onging production sight in Arizona that the Company just promised an injection of $30 b. this year out of $100 b. over 10 to 15 years for 6 plants in Arizona specifically to produce chips for cutting edge technologies such as artificial intelligence.

美国参议院宣布了一项针对芯片行业的540亿美元补贴计划，英特尔公司和三星电子也在行动，领先的台电公司已经在亚利桑那州进行生产，该公司刚刚承诺今年从1000亿美元中注入300亿美元，在10到15年内为亚利桑那州的6家工厂专门生产用于人工智能等尖端技术的芯片。

These chips to be manufactured in Arizona by TSMC are not for general use in the more mundane industries such as appliance and auto components where there is the worrisome shortages at the moment leading to the $54 b. subsidy decision.

这些将由台积电在亚利桑那州制造的芯片不适用于更普通的行业，例如电器和汽车零部件，目前这些行业存在令人担忧的短缺，导致政府做出540亿美元补贴的决定。

On the face of it there is that disconnect between politics and business because the Senate would be more interested in securing the high tech ultra small transistor chips for the US, - maybe a gate in a chip migh only be a few atoms thick allowing many more possible analytical pathways to be considered by the chip before exiting that part of the message and continuing the deductive process.

从表面上看，政治和商业之间存在脱节，因为参议院更感兴趣的是确保美国的高科技超小型晶体管芯片的安全——也许芯片中的一个门可能只有几个原子厚，从而允许芯片在退出那部分信息并继续推理过程之前考虑更多可能的分析路径。

In this capacity the proximity of the manufacturing plant to US Universities would be of a higher critical importance rather than the loyalty of Taiwan which is never questioned.

在这种能力下，制造厂与美国大学的接近程度将比台湾的忠诚度更为重要，而台湾的忠诚度从未受到质疑。

What's now required is the reenactment of Reagan's Strategic Defence Initiative, also known as Star Wars, the only difference this time is the laser beam to shoot down incoming missiles located in space has been replaced with the “United States Space Force" something of a secretive kinetic sky high method of dealing with foreign satellites by nanotechnology.

现在需要的是重温里根的战略防御计划，也被称为星球大战，唯一不同的是，这次用来击落来自太空的导弹的激光束被“美国太空部队”取代了，这是一种神秘的动力学高空纳米技术来处理外国卫星的方法。

中国香港网友的观点

When the time comes, US will strike a deal with your enemy and ask you to cover her withdrawal. This is what happened in Afghanistan.

当时机成熟时，美国将与你的敌人达成协议，并要求你掩护她的撤军。这就是在阿富汗发生的事情。

The weak Afghan air force depended very much on US technicians for maintenance and repairs. Once the technicians were gone, the planes were grounded. Unlike Iraq, the Afghanistan army even did not have tanks and artillery. Once the US army left, their failure was doomed.

脆弱的阿富汗空军非常依赖美国技术人员进行维护和维修。技术人员一走，飞机就停飞了。与伊拉克不同，阿富汗军队甚至没有坦克和火炮。美军一离开，他们的失败就注定了。

The US has already sold out/betrayed the ROC ever since it broke diplomatic ties with ROC and setup shop with PRC.

自从美国与中华民国断交并与中华人民共和国建立商店以来，美国已经出卖了湾湾。

The betrayal was further emphasized by the retreat of US forces.

美军的撤退进一步强调了这种背叛。

Taiwanese might naively believe that TSMC their protector mountain will keep the Americans on their side.

湾湾们可能天真地认为台积电是他们的保护伞，可以让美国人站在他们这边。

It has nothing to do with what TSMC can do or cannot do. If the profits from the arms deals and geopolitical chips are no longer enough and the US sees a need to make a deal with Beijing. They will do it again at the drop of a hat. With the current political situation fully in US’s control. There is no hope of Taiwan balancing the two powers against each other.

这与台积电能做什么或不能做什么无关。如果从军火交易和地缘政治筹码中获得的利润不再足够，美国认为有必要与北京方面达成协议。他们动不动就会再做一次。目前的政治局势完全在美国的控制之下。台湾不可能平衡这两个大国。

美国网友的观点

This is an interesting question because it assumes that Taiwan is a possession of the U.S. The subconscious premise is that Taiwan rather than being either an independent nation or a renegade region of China is somehow a vassal state under U.S. protection and control. This is very dangerous thinking either for the Taiwanese or the U.S.

这是一个有趣的问题，因为它假设台湾是美国的属地。潜意识的前提是，湾湾不是一个独立的国家或中国的叛变地区，而是美国保护和控制下的附属国。这种想法对台湾或美国来说都是非常危险的。

There are currently around 20 chip fabrication plants in the US. Many are planning to expand, and several more are in the design phase. It is clear the the US national agenda is to make itself more self-reliant in this space.

目前，美国大约有20家芯片制造厂。许多公司正计划扩张，还有几家公司正处于设计阶段。很明显，美国的国家议程是让自己在这一领域更加自立。

Using TSMC as a bargaining chip (pun intended) is a pretty weak plan of defense for Taiwan. The company is an internationally privately owned corporation and also is not property of or a vassal to the U.S. It was Chinese ingenuity and talent that made TSMC possible and I doubt that is the “property” of the U.S. or that it is easily transferable. Uproot TSMC from Chinese soil and it will likely whither and die. TSMC is Chinese and Taiwan is Chinese. It is time for the fantasy of a foothold of American hegemony in China to end.

用台积电作为筹码(双关)对台湾来说是一个相当弱的防御计划。台积电是一家国际私人所有的公司，也不是美国的财产或附庸。是中国的聪明才智使台积电成为可能，我怀疑这是美国的“财产”，也怀疑它是否容易转让。把台积电从中国土地上连根拔起，它很可能会枯萎死亡。台积电是中国的，台湾是中国的。是时候结束美国在中国称霸的幻想了。

新加坡网友的观点

TSMC is just a foundry.

台积电只是一家代工厂。

TSMC produces 10761 different types of chips for its customers. These tens of thousands of types of chips occupy 52% of the market. Their design patents belong to different patent owners.

台积电为客户生产10761种不同类型的芯片。这几万种芯片占据了52%的市场份额。他们的设计专利属于不同的专利所有者。

Most of the design patents for 2G~4G chips are in Qualcomm in the United States, and most of the design patents for 5G chips are in China's Huawei and ZTE.

2G~4G芯片的设计专利大部分在美国高通，5G芯片的设计专利大部分在中国的华为和中兴。

Qualcomm only needs to stop authorizing the production of 2G~4G chips, TSMC will become an empty shell factory.

高通只要停止授权生产2G~4G芯片，台积电就会成为空壳工厂。

As for 5G chips, it's no use if you blow up TSMC, the design patents are in China's Huawei and ZTE. Didn't Canada kidnap Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou last year? It is because Huawei holds the patent ownership of 5G chips.

至于5G芯片，炸了台积电也没用，设计专利在中国的华为和中兴。加拿大去年不是绑架了华为首席财务官孟晚舟吗?因为华为拥有5G芯片的专利所有权。

Huawei has begun to collect royalties from major mobile phone manufacturers, regardless of where their OEM is located.

华为已经开始向主要手机制造商收取专利费，无论他们的OEM位于哪里。

If there is a war across the Taiwan Strait (heaven forbids), TSMC is probably among the first to be destroyed. Its fabs’ locations are well known and above ground. It will be the main target of Chinese missiles if war starts because US has forbidden TSMC to sell anything advanced to China and its destruction will mostly affect the West.

如果海峡发生战争(天不允许)，台积电很可能是第一个被摧毁的。它的晶圆厂位于众所周知的地面上。如果战争爆发，台积电将成为中国导弹的主要目标，因为美国已经禁止台积电向中国出售任何先进产品，它的破坏将主要影响西方。

And in the event of war, even if China chooses to spare TSMC, Taiwan itself would probably destroy it if Taiwan senses defeat.

一旦发生战争，即使中国选择放弃台积电，如果台湾感到失败，它自己也可能摧毁它。

And if China senses defeat, it will destroy TSMC to cause major damage to Taiwan and the West.

如果中国感到挫败，它将摧毁台积电，对台湾和西方造成重大损害。

Let’s pray for peace, okay?

让我们祈祷和平，好吗?

写在最后：在佩洛西访台之前就有媒体对台积电董事长刘德音进行了，被问到台海可能面临的最坏情况，刘德音表示，这会是各方皆输的情况，意即全球半导体供应链中断、台湾地区半导体业受冲击、大陆也会失去台湾地区的产能和先进工艺支持。

一边是全球最大的芯片消费市场，一边是全球最大的芯片制造地，一旦两岸半导体的合作“起火”，美国芯片制造业或将成为最大受益者。

中国芯将何去何从？