2018.8.21经济学人官方译文：房价修正

Property prices

Housing correction

Our new cities house-price index suggests that the market is slowing

房价

房市修正

本刊最新城市房价指数显示，房地产市场增速正在放缓

FROM Auckland to Amsterdam, Sydney to San Francisco, house prices in the best locations have gone through the roof. The Economist’s new house-price index covers 22 of the world’s most vibrant cities (see table). They are home to 163m people, with an economic output equal to Germany and Japan combined. The average price of a home in these cities rose by 34% in real terms over the past five years. In seven cities it rose by more than half.

从奥克兰到阿姆斯特丹，从悉尼到旧金山，黄金地带的房价已经一飞冲天。本刊最新的房价指数追踪了全球最具活力的22个城市（见表）。这些城市共有1.63亿居民，经济产出相当于德国和日本的总和。过去五年里，这些城市的平均房价实际增长了34%，其中七个城市的涨幅超过50%。

Some of this is a rebound from the global financial crisis, which started with a housing bust. Prices in our cities fell by an average of 22% in real terms, peak to trough—in Dublin by 62%, and in San Francisco by 42%. But they have since risen by an average of 56%, in real terms, from their lowest points. In 14 cities prices are above their pre-crisis peak—by an average of 45%.

这番上涨一部分源于全球金融危机后的反弹，而那次危机便是从房地产崩溃开始的。当时本刊指数所涵盖城市房价下跌的峰谷差实际平均值为22%——都柏林的数字是62%，旧金山为42%。但自那以后，它们自谷底实际平均上涨了56%。14个城市的房价超过了危机前的峰值——平均较峰值上涨了45%。

Before the crisis, city and national prices broadly rose in tandem. They fell together, too, after the bust. But when they started to rise again, they did so on average twice as fast in our cities as nationally. Moreover, according to the IMF house-price inflation in capital cities is increasingly synchronised.

金融危机发生前，城市和全国的房价大体上同步上涨。危机爆发后也一起下跌。但当两者再次上涨，我们所追踪的城市的增速平均是全国增速的两倍。此外，国际货币基金组织称，各个首都城市的房价上涨步伐愈加趋于一致。

To gauge whether house prices reflect fundamentals or froth, The Economist has compared them with rents and median household incomes. If prices rise faster in the long run than the revenue a property could generate or the earnings that service mortgages, they may be unsustainable. Or, at least, incomes or rents will eventually have to rise.

为判断房价反映的是基本面还是泡沫，本刊将房价与两个指标——房租以及家庭收入中位数——做比较。如果从长远来看，房价增速快于房产可创造出的收入或用来偿还按揭的家庭收入的增速，那么这样的房价也许就不可持续。或者，至少收入或房租最终必须上涨。

Taking the average ratio over the past 20 years (or more if data exist) as “fair value”, national house prices in Australia, Canada and New Zealand have been more than 20% above fair value compared with income and 30% above fair value compared with rents for the past three years. They have now hit 40% above fair value for both metrics. Data for rents at the level of cities are lacking. But compared with long-run median incomes, prices appear even bubblier at city level than nationally.

将过去20年的平均比率（如果有数据可查则覆盖更久）作为“公允值”来参考，那么过去三年里，澳大利亚、加拿大和新西兰的全国房价与收入之比相较公允值高出20%，房价与租金之比相较公允值高出30%。而目前两个比率都已经超出公允值40%。在城市层面，房租数据缺失，但当与长期收入中位数做比较时，城市房价的泡沫程度比全国房价还要高。

Prices in Vancouver are 65% overvalued by the same metric. The figures for Amsterdam, Copenhagen and Sydney are around 50%, and for London 59%, with rent consuming half of gross pay. In just four of our cities are prices at or under fair value: Tokyo, Milan, New York and Singapore.

以同样的标准衡量，温哥华的房价被高估了65%。阿姆斯特丹、哥本哈根和悉尼的房价被高估50%左右。伦敦为59%，而当地的房租已经占到人们工资收入的一半。我们的指数中只有四个城市的房价处于或低于公允值：东京、米兰、纽约和新加坡。

But our index suggests that property prices may be near a turning point. The average rate of house-price inflation across our 22 cities has slowed, from 6.2% annually 12 months ago to 4.7% now. In six cities prices have fallen from recent peaks.

但我们的指数显示，房地产价格的拐点也许近在眼前。22个城市的房价上涨平均速度已经放缓，年增速从12个月前的6.2%降至如今的4.7%。其中六个城市的房价已从近期的峰值下跌。

The three reasons why cities have experienced a property boom—and why it may now be ending—are demand, supply and the cost of money. In recent years people and jobs have flocked to the biggest cities from other parts of their own countries and elsewhere. More than a third of London’s population was born abroad. For Toronto, the share is more than half. The population of our 22 cities rose, on average, by 12% over the past decade. A further boost to demand has come from foreign investors. Auckland, London, Sydney and Vancouver have attracted large inflows, particularly from China.

造成城市房地产繁荣的原因——也是这种繁荣可能即将终结的原因——有三个：需求、供应和资金成本。近些年，人口和工作机会纷纷从本国其他地区和其他国家涌向那些全球最大的城市。超过三分之一的伦敦人口出生于海外。在多伦多这个比例超过一半。过去十年里，我们指数中的22个城市人口平均增长了12%。外国投资者进一步促进了需求。奥克兰、伦敦、悉尼和温哥华吸引了大量外国投资者，尤以中国人居多。

But according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), our sister company, the growth in globalised cities’ population will soon start to slow. A few might shrink. London lost 100,000 people to the rest of Britain in the 12 months to June 2017, and the EIU expects its population to fall over the coming decade.

但本刊的姐妹公司经济学人智库（EIU）认为，那些全球化城市的人口增速很快会开始放缓，一些可能还会萎缩。在截至2017年6月的12个月里，有10万人离开伦敦，迁居至英国各处。经济学人智库预计，未来十年伦敦的人口将下跌。

One reason people may stop flocking to cities is that they have been priced out. And cities are becoming less welcoming to foreign capital, too. Vancouver has made it harder for foreigners to buy property. Australia has increased property-transaction taxes for non-residents. New Zealand is considering a ban on foreigners buying property. Tighter capital controls in China add to the squeeze.

人们也许不再涌向城市的原因之一是负担不起在那里生存的高昂成本。而城市也不再像从前那样欢迎外国资本。温哥华提高了外国买家的置业门槛。澳大利亚提高了非本国居民的房地产交易税。新西兰正考虑禁止外国人购买该国房产。中国加强资本管制也增加了海外置业的难度。

Second, planning restrictions, local campaigns against new developments and developers sitting on land they think will rise in value have conspired to make new housing scarce. In the five years to 2016 London’s population grew almost twice as fast as its housing stock. Comparing new-builds with population growth (an imperfect measure, since household composition may change, but the best available) suggests a shortfall across ten of our cities of 28,000 homes a year in the past decade.

其次，城市规划限制、地方上反对开发新项目、开发商认为地皮会升值而“捂地惜建”——这些因素共同造成了新建房屋的短缺。2011年到2016年，伦敦人口的增速接近该市住宅存量增速的两倍。将新建房屋与人口增长做比对（考虑到住户结构可能改变，这不是一个完美的衡量指标，但已是可用指标中最好的了），显示我们指数中的十个城市在过去十年里每年的住宅缺口为2.8万套。

But the calculus here, too, may be changing. Prices seem to have climbed high enough to encourage new supply. London added 40,000 homes last year—the most for decades. New-builds have added almost a fifth to Sydney’s stock of apartments in the past three years.

但同样地，供应上的势态可能也在变化。房价似乎已攀升至足以刺激新供应的水平。伦敦去年新增4万套住宅，为几十年来之最。过去三年，悉尼的新建房屋差不多令该市的公寓存量增加了五分之一。

Finally, loose monetary policy since the financial crisis has made mortgages extremely cheap. This has “super-charged” prices, says Liam Bailey of Knight Frank Global Research, a property consultancy. Cheap money has also lowered bond yields, pushing investors into other assets, including property. As central banks tighten, servicing a property loan will become more expensive and fewer investors will seek alternatives to fixed-income assets.

最后，自金融危机后采取的宽松货币政策让抵押贷款变得极其廉价。房地产顾问服务公司莱坊（Knight Frank）全球研究部门的利亚姆·贝利（Liam Bailey）表示，这“大大刺激”了房价。低息贷款还压低了债券收益，促使投资者转向包括房地产在内的其他资产。但随着各地央行收紧货币政策，偿还房贷的成本将变得更高昂，寻求固定收益资产替代品的投资者也将减少。

London, vulnerable because of Brexit, may be a bellwether. Agents say developers have started to offer discounts of as much as 10% to close sales. As demand weakens, supply strengthens and mortgage rates rise, the bull run in global cities’ housing may be drawing to an end.

因脱欧而备显脆弱的伦敦也许是个风向标。地产中介称，开发商为能最终成交，已开始提供高达10%的折扣。在需求减少、供应增加而按揭利率上升的作用下，全球城市的房地产牛市可能行将结束。