李显龙：台湾一旦与大陆正面冲突将会被孤立

昨天，新加坡总理李显龙在他的Facebook发了以下一段文字

其中有一段就谈到了他对台湾局势的看法：台湾一旦与大陆正面冲突将会被孤立。

在总理办公室的官方网站上，能看到中文版本如下：

华尔街日报：台湾的新政府即将上任，您认为新政府的目标会怎么样影响新加坡及这个区域？

李总理：马英九领导的国民党政府在两个任期内，在海峡两岸关系方面取得突破。我们希望台湾与中国大陆之间所取得的进展可以持续，甚至能再前进。不过，接下来是民进党政府执政。目前，双方是达成九二共识后，利用其中的“建设性模糊空间” 取得进展，可是现在这个”模糊空间”却出现模糊点，导致两岸关系的整个论述受到质疑。从另外一个角度来分析，过去几年的民调结果显示，台湾民众的身份认同意识越来越强烈。这4、5年来的改变非常明显，在香港也有类似的情形。这将给台湾领导人造成局限。不过，我认为台湾人也完全明白，万一跟中国大陆正面冲突，他们将受到孤立。

华尔街日报：您是说有些人认为美国不一定会帮助台湾？

李总理：不，美国已经很明确地表态，如果台湾坚持走台独，美国不会支持。至少，这是前几任美国政府很明确的立场。

英文版本：

On Taiwan

WSJ: Taiwan will have new leadership shortly – how do you foresee that government’s goals might impact you in the region?

PM: With the Kuomintang (KMT) Government over two terms, Ma Ying-jeou has been able to make progress with Mainland China on cross-strait relations. We hope that what has been gained will be maintained and if possible, they make further headway beyond that. But, of course, it is now going to be a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government. The basis on which the progress has been made has been this ‘constructive ambiguity’ in the 1992 Consensus, but there is now ambiguity about that ambiguity. So, that puts the whole edifice in question. But if you look at it in terms of the attitudes and the polls which have been done in Taiwan over time, the consciousness of a Taiwanese identity has strengthened considerably. It is very perceptible even over a period of four, five years. The same has happened in Hong Kong. That constrains what any Taiwanese leader will be able to do. But at the same time, I think the Taiwanese fully understand that if they collide with Mainland China, they will be on their own.

WSJ: You mean that there is a perception that the US would not help?

PM: No, I think Americans have made your position quite clear, that if Taiwan goes for independence, you are not standing with Taiwan. At least the previous administrations made their position very clear.