日本网友：为何工业能力极低的中国能在二战中抵挡住日本这么久？

20世纪三四十年代发生的第二次世界大战是一场典型的、规模空前的联盟性现代化战争。它是一场中、苏、美、英等反法西斯同盟国与德、意、日等法西斯轴心国两大对立集团在全球范围内逐步展开的关乎正义与邪恶、光明与黑暗、进步与反动的殊死搏斗和关乎世界人类命运和前途的最激烈的总较量。在美版知乎Quora上，日本网友提问道：中国，一个当时工业能力极低的国家，如何在二战中抵挡住日本这么久？这引起海外网友的热议，我们看看他们的观点。

问题

新加坡网友罗纳德•德布斯的回答

For thousands of years, science and technology, strategy and tactics, and economic strength have been decisive factors in the outcome of war.

几千年来，科学技术、战略战术和经济实力一直是战争结果的决定性因素。

At first glance, this is a war between one country and another. In fact, it is an industrialized modern country, killing a pre modern and pre industrialized country.

乍一看，这是一个国家对另一个国家的战争。事实上，它是一个工业化的现代国家，对一个前现代、前工业化的国家的屠杀。

In 1932, Japan had produced more than 3 million tons of steel. By 1937, this figure had risen to at least 5.7 million tons. In contrast, China has less than 50000 tons.

1932年，日本已经生产了300多万吨钢铁。到1937年，这一数字已升至至少570万吨。相比之下，中国只有不到5万吨。

Japan already has cutting-edge technology. In contrast, China is still quite backward in technology. The literacy rate is below 9 per cent. On the contrary, Japan has provided national public education for children for decades.

日本已经拥有尖端技术。相比之下，中国在技术上仍然相当落后。识字率低于9%。相反，几十年来，日本已经为儿童提供了国家公共教育。

From 1937 to 45, Japan had fighter planes, steel warships (including aircraft carriers), tanks, trains, trucks and factories to produce these war machines and materials. China has only the ability to manufacture small arms.

1937年至45年间，日本拥有战斗机、钢铁战舰（包括航空母舰等）、坦克、火车、卡车和工厂来生产这些战争机器和材料。中国只有制造小型武器的能力。

Since 1895-1937, Japan has hoarded a large amount of war military expenditure from the "compensation" mainly obtained from China. In contrast, the Chinese warlords at that time were engaged in scuffle and internal strife.

自1895-1937年以来，日本从主要从中国索取的“补偿金”中囤积了大量的战争军费。相比之下，当时的中国军阀混战，内斗不断。

However, China has been able to fight for more than ten years because of the following factors:

但中国之所以能够抗争十余年，有以下因素：

Japanese arrogance: In the past half century, the Japanese easily defeated China in 1894 – 95 and occupied the Northeast with little resistance. During this period, the forces represented by the Kuomintang tended to pacify Japan. The Japanese believe that the Lugouqiao incident will lead to a small-scale conflict, they will win, and China will soon yield. They thought that they could quickly occupy Shanghai. They did occupy Shanghai, but it took three months. Japan suffered heavy losses, and the slogan of China's destruction in three months ended.

日本人的傲慢：在过去的半个世纪里，日本人在1894–95年轻松击败了中国，在几乎没有遇到抵抗的情况下占领了东北，而在这一时期，以国民党为代表的势力往往会安抚日本。日本人认为卢沟桥事件将导致一场小规模的冲突，他们将获胜，中国将很快屈服。他们认为可以迅速占领上海，他们确实占领了上海，但耗时3个月，日本损失惨重，三个月灭亡中国的口号就此结束。

Lack of sufficient manpower. Japan simply does not have enough manpower. Even if it cooperates with China's puppet government, it cannot effectively control the whole of China, or even its own occupied areas. They basically dominated ports, major cities in eastern China and railways. The guerrillas controlled most of the rural areas in eastern China, while Chiang Kai shek and the Kuomintang controlled western China. In the Second World War, Japan had at most 1 million people in China. In addition to the violent and cruel treatment of the Chinese people by the Japanese, the Japanese could not obtain enough troops to conquer the whole China, or even the major cities in western China.

缺乏足够的人力。日本根本没有足够的人力，即使是与中国的伪政府合作，也无法有效地控制整个中国，甚至他们自己的占领区。他们基本上统治了港口、中国东部的主要城市和铁路。游击队控制了华东大部分农村地区，而蒋介石和国民党控制了华西地区。在第二次世界大战中，日本在中国最多有100万人，再加上日本人对中国人的暴力残忍的虐待，日本人不可能获得足够的军队来征服整个中国，甚至是中国西部的主要城市。

Logistics and geography: Of course, even if they have soldiers and resources, pure geography and logistics problems may prevent them from conquering most parts of China. Like the Germans, the Japanese army did not attach much importance to logistics, which helped the Chinese defeat them in the "Changsha" campaign in 1939. The Japanese do not have enough materials or means to quickly and effectively transport these materials to all parts of China, thus ruling the whole country. Therefore, they stick to ports, railways and major cities. The guerrilla tactics of the Communist Party also seriously damaged Japan's logistics. In terms of geography, China has a vast territory and changeable terrain (mountains, deserts, rivers and waterways in many regions, as well as vast land), which is not an easy task for a small country like Japan.

后勤和地理：当然，即使他们有士兵和资源，纯粹的地理和后勤问题也可能阻止他们征服中国大部分地区。与德国人一样，日本军队也不太重视后勤，这帮助中国人在1939年的“长沙”战役中击败了他们。日本人没有足够的物资，也没有足够的手段来快速有效地将这些物资运送到中国各地，从而统治整个国家。因此，他们坚守在港口、铁路和主要城市。共产党的游击战术也严重破坏了日本的后勤。就地理而言，中国幅员辽阔，地形多变（许多地区的山脉、沙漠、河流和水道，以及广阔的土地），对于日本这样的弹丸小国来说，并不是一个容易的任务。

The tenacious resistance of the Chinese: As I said before, the Japanese believed that the Chinese would give up resistance again after a period of time, but their long-term resistance made Japan feel unexpected. Even in the shocking casualties in Shanghai, Wuhan and Changsha, the Chinese people are willing to carry out a long and painful struggle. Even if Japan can win a war, China's losses can be made up continuously, so the killing rate does not mean much. The Chinese people are also very resistant to bombing (such as in Chongqing), famine and refugees.

中国人的顽强抵抗：正如我之前所说，日本人认为中国人会在一段时间后再次放弃抵抗，但他们的长期抵抗让日本感到始料未及。即使在上海、武汉、长沙等令人震惊的伤亡情况下，中国人也愿意进行长期而痛苦的斗争。即使日本能够赢得某场战争，但由于中国的损失可以源源不断地弥补，因此杀伤率也没有多大意义。中国人民对轰炸（如在重庆）、饥荒和难民也很有抵抗力。

Foreign aid to China: I admit that China has not received much foreign aid, but it does not exist. Russia and the United States provided a considerable number of tanks, guns, ammunition and aircraft. At least after the Pearl Harbor incident, China had strong friends, which was psychologically boosted. Of course, limited assistance did not help China defeat Japan immediately, but at least it helped her maintain resistance to some extent.

对中国的外援：我承认，中国没有得到多少外援，但它并非不存在。俄罗斯和美国提供了相当数量的坦克、枪支、弹药和飞机，至少在珍珠港事件之后，中国有了强大的朋友，这在心理上得到了提振。当然，有限的援助没有帮助中国立刻打败日本，但至少在一定程度上帮助她维持了抵抗。

德国亚洲问题专家菲尔德的回答

1. Compared with other western countries, Japan's industrial capacity has been exaggerated. For example, its bomber capacity is terrible. For example, the largest number and heaviest bomber is G3m, which only produces 1000. The bomb capacity of the two most common heavy bombers in the United States, B-17 and B-24, is 800 kg, and their payload capacity is twice or three times that of G3m.

1.相对于其他西方大国，日本的工业能力被夸大了。例如，它的轰炸机容量是可怕的，例如，它们数量最多、重量最重的轰炸机是G3m，但它只生产了1000枚，而美国最常见的两种重型轰炸机B-17和B-24的炸弹容量为800千克，其有效载荷容量是G3m的两倍或三倍。

2. Although China's industrial structure is very bad (and there was little loss at the beginning of the war), people ignored that because of the situation in China after the end of the last dynasty, it is a very militarized society, that is to say, all forces have many weapons in their hands.

2.尽管中国的工业结构非常糟糕（而且在战争初期损失很少），但人们忽略了，由于上一个王朝结束后的中国局势，它是一个非常军事化的社会，也就是说，各方势力手里有很多武器。

3. Japan's industrial capacity is more used in the navy, because it is mainly a naval power. Although the army is very powerful politically, its industrial production capacity has not been invested in them, especially in high-end equipment.

3.日本的工业能力更多地用于海军方面，因为它主要是一个海军强国，尽管陆军在政治上很强大，但工业生产能力并没有投入到他们身上，特别是在高端装备方面。

4. China is very aware of its industrial production capacity, so it dragged Japan to fight a conservative war. They opened up most of the battlefields in the middle of the Yangtze River and many other terrain that is usually not conducive to large-scale tanks/artillery.

4.中国很清楚自己地工业产能问题，所以拖住日本打了一场保守的战争，他们将大部分战场开辟在扬子江中部和其他许多通常不利于大规模坦克/火炮的地形。

5. In this regard, the theory of the Japanese Army is not very important for the use of armor or artillery. It is infantry oriented, which is beneficial to China.

5.在这方面，日本陆军的理论对装甲或火炮的使用并不是很大，它是以步兵为导向的，对中国有利。

美国网友约翰•莫里斯的回答

Several factors together weakened Japan's war advantage in China. The first is the huge size of China's territory and population. Although China is fragmented and its economy is very backward, it is still too large. Logistics is a serious difficulty for the Japanese. Their transportation scale is very small, and they are more and more tired when going deep into the strategy.

几个因素共同削弱了日本在中国的战争优势。首先是中国领土和人口的巨大规模。尽管中国四分五裂，经济非常落后，但它仍然太庞大了。物流对日本人来说是一个严重的困难，他们的运输规模很小，越往战略深处走越累。

But perhaps more importantly, the different armies and ultra nationalist factions in Japan have no unified plan. Most senior leaders know that they must control China in some way and realize that they cannot win. By 1940, Japan had recruited a large number of men aged 30. Due to the lack of farmers, food supply was not available. Malnutrition was a serious problem in Japan.

但也许更重要的是，日本内部不同的军队和极端民族主义派别，没有统一的计划。大多数高级领导人都知道他们必须以某种方式控制中国，并意识到他们无法获胜。到1940年，日本大量招募30岁的男性，由于缺乏农民，粮食供给不上，营养不良在日本是一个严重的问题。

The economy has been in a state of war for several years and is consuming itself. The struggle between army and navy factions for more resources hinders investment in production capacity; For example, all the metal railings around the buildings were melted to provide metal for weapons, and a huge metal movement was launched to collect any available metal from the Japanese people.

经济已经处于战争状态好几年了，日本已经消耗不起了。陆军和海军派系争夺更多资源的斗争阻碍了对生产能力的投资；例如，建筑物周围的所有金属栏杆都被熔化，以提供金属制造武器，并因此发起了一场巨大的金属运动，以从日本人民手中收集任何可用的金属。

However, the problem of "face" and the inability to form a "decent exit" have led the Japanese government into an increasingly serious problem mire, which has become increasingly serious and beyond their control. The Nanjing Massacre made it clear to many officials that these actions poisoned their relations abroad and did not solve the "China problem". On the contrary, they have intensified the Chinese people's will to resist.

但日本爱面子，要体面，而“面子”问题和无法组成“体面的退出”，使日本政府陷入了越来越严重的问题泥潭，问题越来越严重，超出了他们的控制范围。南京大屠杀让很多官员都很清楚，这些行为毒害了他们在国外的关系，并没有解决“中国问题”。相反，他们激化了中国人地反抗意志。

Why can't the Japanese control their troops? I think the answer is that they actually have no government. On the contrary, they had a series of new feudal clans, not the old samurai clans. They created a system, and they were loyal to their own departments. Therefore, the army only considers the army, while the navy opposes the army. Diplomats, politicians and business leaders all work for their own interests rather than the national interest.

为什么日本人不能控制他们的军队？我认为答案在于他们实际上没有政府。相反，他们有一系列新的封建氏族，不是旧的武士氏族，他们创建了一个系统，他们对自己的部门忠诚。因此，陆军只考虑陆军，海军反对陆军，外交官、政治家、商业领袖都是为自己而不是国家利益而工作。

In addition, the factions also fought with other factions within their own departments. This is how the Treaty between Washington and London became a poisonous fruit of Japanese politics, rather than a shrewd diplomatic treaty that was very beneficial to Japan. Japan can't afford its navy. How can expansion help? As the military gained advantage over all other factions, the struggle between the Army and the Navy became more intense.

除此之外，各派系还与各自部门内的其他派系进行斗争。这就是华盛顿和伦敦条约如何成为日本政治的毒果，而不是对日本非常有利的精明外交条约。日本负担不起它所拥有的海军，扩军怎么会有帮助？随着军方在所有其他派别中取得优势，陆军和海军之间的斗争变得更加激烈。

The next question is, why did the Japanese covet China so much during the Russo Japanese War? Part of the problem goes back to the militarization of Japan. Japan has no resources to win the hearts of the people, nor to feed its own people. They are plundering the conquered territories in the East to try to feed Japan. In order to control China, they tried to use terrorist tactics, poison gas warfare, and bacteriological warfare. Every act of corruption would weaken Japan's image overseas. Japan's reaction rejected and returned to the form of Japanese isolationism, such as withdrawing from the international league. This has created more support for China.

下一个问题是，回到在日俄战争期间，为什么日本人当时就如此觊觎中国？部分问题要追溯到日本的军事化。日本根本没有赢得人心的资源，也没有养活自己的人民的资源——他们正在掠夺东方被征服的领土，试图养活日本。为了控制中国，他们试图使用恐怖战术，毒气战，细菌战，每一次腐蚀行为都会削弱日本在海外的形象，日本的反应是否认并退回到日本孤立主义的形式，例如退出国际联盟。这为中国创造了更多的支持。

The Soviets were very dissatisfied with Japan, and they could gain a lot by supporting China. Other colonial powers, including the United States, did not want Japan to rule the Asian region. The brutality of the Japanese army made people willing to do anything to make up for their losses. As a result, suicide attacks have caused losses and spawned more barbaric acts, which is a feedback loop that constantly lowers the standard of conduct.

苏联人对日本很不满，通过支持中国，他们可以获得很多好处。包括美国在内的其他殖民大国不希望日本统治亚洲地区。日本军队的残暴使得人们愿意做任何事情来弥补他们的损失。因此，自杀式袭击造成了损失，滋生了更多的野蛮行为，这是一种不断降低行为标准的反馈循环。

Therefore, the international press launched more support for China, and the photos of Japanese atrocities made almost everyone support and force their government to take action. Therefore, even if only symbolic things flow into China, it will bring more support. Japan once again reacts by denying or treating them as racists in white countries, which once again makes Japan's situation worse.

因此，国际新闻界对中国发起更多支持，日本暴行的照片使几乎所有人都支持并迫使他们的政府采取行动。因此，即使只有象征性的东西流入中国，也会带来更多的支持，而日本再次做出反应，否认或将其视为白人国家的种族主义者，这再次使日本的处境变得更糟。

轰炸珍珠港

Even if there is no Pacific war with the United States, there is no way to win. Japan is in a dilemma in China, and there is no way to recognize the problem and withdraw from China. In fact, the attack on the United States was aimed at denying Japan's predicament in China. Almost all Japanese leaders, not only General Yamamoto, have little or no chance to win, but the slim hope of reaching peace through negotiations with the United States is enough to discourage the conservative forces in the Japanese factions from seeking peace.

即使没有与美国的太平洋战争，也根本没有办法获胜，日本在中国进退两难，也没有办法承认问题并撤出中国。事实上，对美国的攻击是为了否认日本在中国已经陷入的困境。几乎所有的日本领导人，不仅仅是山本上将他们几乎没有或根本没有获胜的机会，但与美国通过谈判达成和平的渺茫希望足以打消日本派系中的保守力量求和的念头。