美论坛：如何看待日本说台湾有事就是日本有事？外网友：它最好来

日本对于台海的野心一直都存在，尤其是这几年日本方面多次发表涉台错误言论，其中比较著名的一句就是日本前首相安倍晋三过世前说的那句“台海有事就是日本有事”。就在前不久日本发布的2022版《防卫白皮书》中，关于涉台内容翻了几倍。最近为了渲染台海紧张局势，日本政客还公开呼吁，希望自民党讨论日本撤侨事宜。不是台海有事就是日本有事吗，怎么先想着跑路了？这也让日本所谓的对台承诺变得一文不值，一旦有事，日本人跑得比谁都快。近期在美版知乎论坛上就有这样的一个话题引起各国网友的热议：日本表示，如果台湾受到攻击，日本将提供帮助。你觉得呢?

让我们也来看看国外民间网友对这个问题的的观点吧！

论坛话题

住在中国的老外的观点

I think Japanese officials are eager to see the Nuclear weapons again. It is an extremely irresponsible approach to Japanese citizens to make such remarks involving territorial disputes in other countries in front of a nuclear country and a permanent member of the UN.

我认为日本官员渴望再次看到核武器。在有核国家和联合国常任理事国面前发表涉及其他国家领土争议的言论，是对日本国民极其不负责任的行为。

广岛原子弹

If the United States protects Japan, the world will be ruined. If the United States does not protect Japan, then Japan will be ruined.

如果美国保护日本，世界就毁了。如果美国不保护日本，那么日本就完蛋了。

How would you choose? Although as an individual, you can discuss war at will. But as a government, don't make war threats and remarks casually.

你会怎么选择?虽然作为个人，你可以随意讨论战争。但作为一个政府，不要随意发出战争威胁和言论。

德国网友的观点

I’m guessing;

我猜

The intended target for those recent quotes is the US, not China or Taiwan per se. I think they want something from the US regarding their defense relationship but haven’t got a clear answer. This Taiwan topic was just a means to do so.

最近这些言论的目标是美国，而不是中国或台湾本身。我认为他们希望从美国那里得到一些关于他们防务关系的东西，但没有得到明确的答案。台湾问题只是这样做的一种手段。

Japan might have been a little spooked out at how the American forces withdrew from Afghanistan. Not the fact that they left and had announced another it but how they left. It was like a sudden retreat and the locals were obviously not informed about that manner.

日本可能对美国军队从阿富汗撤军感到有点害怕。不是他们离开的事实，而是他们离开的方式。这就像一个突然的撤退，当地人显然没有被告知这种方式。

美式阿富汗撤军

The other thing that might have spooked Japan was domestic politics in the US with regards to international relations. It appears that the current administration and a good crop of American politicians have not been as straight forward nor “smart” in their approach towards foreign affairs, and appears less willing (on the surface) of confronting both China. Nor have they really address other issues appropriately which would affect Japan such as the technology tensions and trade wars… it appears to be a continuation of the previous administration but in some ways it’s not.

另一件可能吓到日本的事情是美国zz与国际关系的关系。当前的政府和一大批美国政客在处理外交事务时似乎不那么直截了当，也不那么“聪明”，(表面上)似乎不太愿意同时对抗中国。他们也没有真正恰当地解决其他会影响日本的问题，比如技术紧张局势和贸易战……这似乎是上一届的延续，但在某些方面并非如此。

If you think about all of that, it makes sense why Japan would let off such a message regarding defending Taiwan.

如果你仔细想想，就会明白为什么日本会发出保卫湾湾的信息。

And they got their answer:

他们得到了答案:

The US said it recognized one China policy.

美国表示承认“一个中国”政策.

People may not see this importance but more or less… America told Japan to shut up and they’re in control of the situation.

人们可能没有看到这一点的重要性，但或多或少，美国告诉日本闭嘴，他们控制着局势。

Just stretch your imagination a bit but also look at the bigger picture long term view of things, and read between the lines and know the context as much as possible.

只是稍微扩展一下你的想象力，但也要从长远的角度来看待事情，尽可能多地体会言外之意，了解上下文。

马来西亚网友的观点

Taiwan and Japan are islands, with densely populated zones and densely concentrated industrial zones. Which means that if China is ever attacked by, or from, these islands all they need to do is lob just a few well aimed missiles at a few critical nodes to create not only total chaos, but also cripple the WORLD high tech industry (this is also true for South Korea, by the way, were one specific facility can be easily destroyed and create total chaos worldwide.

台湾和日本是岛屿，有人口密集的地区和密集的工业区。这意味着，如果中国被这些岛屿攻击，他们只需要向几个关键节点发射几枚瞄准好的导弹，不仅可以制造完全的混乱，还可以削弱世界高科技产业(顺便说一下，韩国也是如此，如果一个特定的设施可以被轻易摧毁，并在世界范围内制造完全的混乱。

Which means that those who in the Anglosphere think of their Japanese or Taiwanese "allies" as canon fodder are kidding themselves. Just 24 hours after any attack on either North Korea, China or Russia the world economy will violently crash just from the sheer panic induced by such missile strikes.

这意味着那些在英语圈中认为日本或湾湾“盟友”是经典素材的人是在自欺欺人。在对朝鲜、中国或俄罗斯的任何攻击发生24小时后，世界经济就会因为这种导弹袭击引起的恐慌而剧烈崩溃。

As for the people living on Taiwan, the South Korea or Japan, they will deal with such industrial pollution and chaos that war fighting will be the last thing on their minds.

至于生活在台湾、韩国或日本的人们，他们将处理如此严重的工业污染和混乱，他们将不会考虑战争。

And, if they don't fully surrender at that point, both Russia and China can turn their small islands into wastelands.

而且，如果他们不完全投降，俄罗斯和中国都可以把他们的小岛变成荒地。

By the way, the US force planners all know that. This was first said to college students by a *very* experienced US force planner in a class he called "Why Japan cannot fight any war".

顺便说一下，美国军队的规划者都知道这一点。这句话是一位“非常”有经验的美军规划者在一堂名为“为什么日本不能打任何战争”的课上对大学生说的。

Finally, I think that most people in the region, atleast in the South Korea and Taiwan are aware of that. Not so sure about the Japanese whom l see as more comfortable taking orders from the US even when it doesn't serve their interests.

最后，我认为这个地区的大多数人，至少在韩国和台湾是知道的。我不太确定日本人，我认为他们更愿意接受美国的命令，即使这并不符合他们的利益。

新加坡网友的观点

Can Japan? Yes. Will Japan? Not in a million years. Japan knows China.

是日本吗?是的。日本敢吗?绝对不可能。日本是知道中国的。

For Japan to be returning to the scene of their crime, this is the perfect closure for China to atone for Japanese war crimes, plus taking back Taiwan in a single stroke!

日本会回到了他们的罪行现场，这是中国为日本的战争罪行赎罪的完美结局，再加上一举夺回台湾!

This is the provocation needed for China to order the immediate demolition of the Yasukuni Shrine. As a starter. . .

如果他们敢挑衅，中国会即刻下命令摧毁靖鬼神社，打响第一炮。

PLA would probably take 20% power to solve the inside issue with Taiwan province, that would be another story. China will definitely use what they have to give a forever ending to the over-a-thousand-year China-japan resentment. It's not about national interest, even not about hornor or glory, but just simply bloody revenge.

解放军可能需要20%的力量来解决与台湾省的内部问题，那是另一回事了。中国一定会用他们所拥有的一切，永远结束一千多年来的中日新仇旧恨。这与CCP无关，与国家利益无关，甚至与荣誉或荣耀无关，而只是血腥的复仇。

They better do what they say.

他们最好说到做到。

中国台湾在美留学生的观点

A similar question was asked earlier. my answer to that question is appropriate here:

早些时候也有人提出了类似的问题。我对这个问题的回答很恰当:

Japan has an undying love for high speed neutrons. And of all of the other long-lived radioisotopes that are the by-product of multiple thermonuclear detonations.

日本对高速中子有着永恒的爱。以及所有其他长期存在的放射性同位素它们是多次热核爆炸的副产品。

(Remember China the detonations need to be over the most densely populated areas, FIRST. You want to irradiate and vaporize all of them in your first strike.)

(记住，中国，首先，爆炸需要在人口最密集的地区进行。你想要辐照和蒸发所有他们在你的第一次打击。)

The Japanese clearly are expressing their desire for their home islands to not be radiologically habitable by humans for at least the next 2000 years.

日本人显然在表达他们的愿望，希望他们的家乡岛屿至少在未来2000年里不适合人类居住。

Well if that is what they want. That is exactly what they should get.

如果这是他们想要的。这正是他们应该得到的。

海外华人的观点

The current state of Taiwan is the direct result of Japan’s expansion into China and Asia with untold suffering and destruction in the past, these are all still very fresh in the minds of many Chinese who have lost families, force to disperse to other parts of the world, myself included!

湾湾湾目前的状况是日本在过去向中国和亚洲扩张的直接结果，带来了难以描述的痛苦和破坏，这些对许多失去家人、被迫分散到世界其他地方的中国人来说仍然记忆犹新，包括我自己!

If Japan shall get involved with the reunification of Taiwan by China, it will tear open the wound and start the writing of a new chapter of the China/Japan conflict, except this time around, a much united, prosperous, and advanced China is here instead of the weak, divided, per-industrialized China.

如果日本参与中国对湾湾的统一，它将撕开伤口，并开始书写中日冲突的新篇章，但这一次，这里是一个更加统一、繁荣和先进的中国，而不是脆弱、分裂、工业化的中国。

Any person with critical thinking skills would know the end result! I also grew up in Taiwan, same as Alan Chiu who has a different view!

任何具有批判性思维能力的人都会知道最终的结果!我也是在台湾长大的，和赵艾伦一样有不同的观点!

If that is the case, there may be no Japan in the future.

如果是这样，未来可能就没有日本了。

Because China will transfer the battlefield to solve the Taiwan issue to Japan, allowing Japan to bear the anger from China.

因为中国将把解决两岸问题的战场转移给日本，让日本承担来自中国的愤怒。

If Japan is defeated, the Taiwan issue will naturally be resolved.

如果日本战败，台湾问题自然就解决了。

This is good, at least for China and Taiwan, but for the Japanese, it is not so good.

这是好事，至少对中国大陆和台湾来说是这样，但对日本人来说就不那么好了。

Because once Japan takes action, it will evoke the Chinese people's memory of the atrocities of Japan's aggression against China decades ago. These hatreds will turn into fireworks blooming on the Japanese islands.

因为一旦日本采取行动，就会唤起中国人民对几十年前日本侵略中国的暴行的记忆。 这些仇恨将化作烟花绽放在日本诸岛。

Then, Japan is gone.

然后，日本就消失了。

中国台湾网友的观点

I believe Japan said they will join the US in helping Taiwan.

我相信日本说过他们会和美国一起帮助台湾。

But the US is being ambiguous by not saying that it would and also not saying that it wouldn’t come to Taiwan’s aid—when asked point blank, Blinken blinked something like, I don’t answer hypothetical questions.

但美国模棱两可，没有说它会，也没有说它不会对湾湾提供援助——当被直截了当地问到，布林肯眨了眨眼睛说，我不回答假设性的问题。

However, America is acting as if it will come to Taiwan’s aid, while simultaneously demanding that Taiwan buy more US weapons to defend itself—after all, God helps those who help themselves—America says, guess what, you’re buying so and so and Taiwan says, oh thank you, father knows best.

然而，美国表现得好像它会来帮助台湾，同时要求台湾购买更多的美国武器来保卫自己——毕竟，上帝会帮助那些自助的人——美国说，你猜怎么着，你在买什么，台湾说，哦，谢谢，爸爸知道得最清楚。

We won’t really know the outcome until China calls America’s bluff. If America doesn’t come to Taiwan’s aid, it’s Sayonara for Japan too. Maybe the Australians could hop over……

在中国向美国摊牌之前，我们不会真正知道结果。如果美国不来帮助台湾，那日本也该说再见了。也许澳大利亚人可以参一脚......