新加坡SGX表示：海运柴油硫减排可能会影响铁矿石、运费价格

Singapore's SGX says IMO 2020 sulfur cut may impact on iron ore, freight prices

新加坡SGX表示，IMO 2020年的硫减排可能会影响铁矿石、运费价格。

London — The Singapore Exchange said Wednesday that lower sulfur requirements for bunker fuel from 2020 may lead to a squeeze in FOB price differentials between 62% Fe iron ore and 65% Fe prices. This is due to the potential for higher freight costs resulting from the lengthier voyage time from Brazil, with Australia at a comparative advantage.

伦敦-新加坡交易所周三表示，从2020年开始燃料硫需求降低，可能导致离岸价在62%铁矿石和65%铁矿石之间的差价挤压。这是因为从巴西到澳大利亚的航程较长，可能会导致运费增加，而澳大利亚则处于相对优势。

The implementation of a reduced sulfur cap on fuel oil to 0.5% maximum sulfur from January 2020, from 3.5% sulfur at present, "will inevitably impact iron ore prices as miners are forced to absorb the increased shipping costs or try to pass them onto the end-user," SGX said in a statement.

SGX在一份声明中说，从2020年1月起，将燃料油的硫上限从目前的3.5%降至最大硫量的0.5%，这将不可避免地影响铁矿石价格，因为矿商被迫承担增加的运输成本或试图将其转嫁给最终用户。

The International Maritime Organization's directive to lower the maximum permitted sulfur content in fuel oil for shipping has led analysts to warn of higher costs and difficulties in meeting demand from the specification change due to refinery infrastructure.

国际海事组织（International Maritime Organization）关于降低用于运输的燃料油中最大允许硫含量的指令，使分析人士警告说，由于炼油厂基础设施的原因，在满足规范变更的要求方面，成本更高，难度更大。

The iron ore market in China, the largest buyer, evaluates seaborne iron ore prices on a delivered basis across grades and with domestic supplies. Spot prices delivered into China are a global benchmark, and higher shipping costs may lead to changes in netback prices and costs absorbed by counterparties, as well as offer interest determined by regional netbacks.

中国的铁矿石市场是最大的买家，它对海运铁矿石价格进行评估，评估的基础是不同等级和国内供应。进入中国的现货价格是一个全球基准，较高的运输成本可能导致网背价格的变化和交易对手吸收的成本，以及由区域网背确定的报价利息。

Brazil's Ponta da Madeira terminal exports Carajas iron ore, which is a main spot trade reference for 65% Fe iron ore fines.

巴西的Ponta da Madeira码头出口Carajas铁矿石，这是65%铁矿粉的主要现货贸易参考。

Concentrates and pellet feed from markets such as Brazil, Chile, Peru, Canada, Europe and Russia may also price with reference to 65% Fe fines.

来自巴西、智利、秘鲁、加拿大、欧洲和俄罗斯等市场的浓缩物和颗粒饲料的价格也可能参考65%的铁矿粉。

"Theoretically higher fuel oil costs will give Australian miners an economic advantage when pricing contracts to China, given the shorter voyage distances compared to Brazil, which in turn could elevate the 62% Fe FOB price relative to 65% Fe FOB price," SGX said.

SGX表示：“理论上，较高的燃油成本将使澳大利亚矿业公司在向中国定价时获得经济优势，因为与巴西相比，中国的航程较短，这反过来又将使62%的铁矿石FOB价格相对于65%的铁矿石FOB价格上涨。”

The voyage from Ponta da Madeira, close to the Maranhao state, northeast Brazil-based city of Sao Luis, to Qingdao in north China, is around 12,000 miles, while the journey from Western Australia's Port Hedland is around 3,500 miles.

从马德拉桥（Ponta da Madeira），靠近巴西东北部城市圣路易斯（Sao Luis）的马拉诺霍州（Maranhao State），到中国北方的青岛的航程约为12000英里，而从西澳大利亚的黑德兰港（Port Hedland）的航程约为3500英里。

"The added complexity of IMO 2020 will create unique trading opportunities for both the freight and iron ore market," SGX said.

SGX表示：“IMO 2020的复杂性将为货运和铁矿石市场创造独特的贸易机会。”

The SGX offers futures contracts based on iron ore delivered into China and clearing in both iron ore and freight derivatives markets. Interest to trade the 65% Fe delivered China futures contract increased since launch in December with 3 million mt traded in just over two months and more participants registering to trade the contract, SGX said.

新交所提供的期货合约是以交付中国的铁矿石为基础，并在铁矿石和货运衍生品市场进行结算。SGX表示，自去年12月推出以来，交易65%铁交割的中国期货合约的利息增加，仅两个多月内交易300万公吨，更多参与者注册交易该合约。

Market participants may see interest to lock in CFR iron ore prices and trading grade spreads and hedging FOB iron ore prices by origin, using different freight routes and iron ore delivered derivatives.

市场参与者可能会看到有兴趣锁定CFR铁矿石价格和交易等级价差，并利用不同的货运路线和铁矿石交付衍生品按原产地对冲FOB铁矿石价格。

This may prevent price risk from changes in outright prices and offer availability, due to volatility in demand, as well as government directives affecting the steel and mining sector, and overall supplies and shipping costs.

这可能会防止由于需求波动，以及影响钢铁和采矿行业的政府指令，以及总体供应和运输成本而导致的价格风险的直接价格和报价可用性变化。