数说 | 香港自有住房难题或将找到答案

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Over the past few years, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region has witnessed anger and frustration among its youth population, which, according to some analysts, was amplified by the city’s home ownership crisis, affecting not only the young but also the entire population.

过去几年，香港特别行政区的年轻人感到愤怒与沮丧。一些分析人士指出 香港的自有住房危机是背后的重要催化因素——因为它不仅影响年轻人，而且对整个人口都产生了巨大冲击。

OECD data shows that in most advanced economies, the home ownership rate is above 60 percent, and in places like Singapore and China’s Taiwan, it can be as high as 90 and 85 percent respectively.

经合组织的数据显示，在大多数发达经济体中，自有住房率一般都在60%以上。而在某些地区，比如新加坡和中国台湾，自有住房率甚至分别高达90%和85%。

In Hong Kong, however, the home ownership rate is around 50 percent, and a mere 7.6 percent of people aged below 35 are homeowners. Some good news is, in 2020, after 15 years of steady decline, the citywide rate rebounded to 51.5 percent, the first notable increase since 2004.

但是在香港，自有住房率却只有50%左右。35岁以下的香港人中，更是仅有7.6%拥有自己的住房。好消息是，2020年，在经历了15年的持续下降之后，香港的自有住房率回升到了51.5%，这也是2004年以来的第一次显著上升。

So could this be the beginning of the end for Hong Kong’s home ownership crisis?

所以，对香港来说，自有住房危机的转机到来了吗？

First, let’s take a historical view of home ownership in Hong Kong.

首先，让我们回顾一下香港自有住房的历史。

Analysts used to divide the period between 1997 and 2019 into three segments. In the first one between 1997 and 2004, there was ample supply of land and flats, causing a drop in property prices.

分析人士习惯将1997到2019年划分为三个阶段：在第一个阶段，即1997到2004年，香港的土地和房屋供给充足，房价应声下跌。

In the following two segments, both land and flats became scarce and flat prices soared by more than 100 percent every six to seven years, resulting in a decline in home ownership.

但之后的两个阶段，土地和房屋变得稀缺，房价随之暴涨，平均每隔六到七年翻上一番，自有住房率也因此陡然下降。

So the key here is really land, land, land. But does Hong Kong have extra land for housing development today? The answer is, in some unexpected way, yes, not in the sense of new land, but land that comes from existing brownfield sites.

所以，问题的关键始终是土地、土地、土地。但是，今天的香港还有富余的土地兴建住房吗？答案是——可能会有些出人意料——还真有。但它却并非传统意义上的新地，而是现存的棕地资源。

According to a study commissioned by the Planning Department of the HKSAR in 2019, Hong Kong has in total 1,580 hectares of brownfield sites, of which 1,414 hectares or nearly 90 percent are occupied by low-density business activities, such as storage, warehouses and vehicle parking.

根据香港规划部门2019年委托的一项调查，香港现存总共1580公顷棕地资源，其中1414公顷或90%被低密度的商业活动所占据，例如仓储、仓库、和停车场。

In 2020, after a decade of discussion and negotiation, the government of the HKSAR committed to convert 860 hectares of brownfield sites for housing development in a strong boost for land supply in the city.

2020年，在经历了大约十年的协商和谈判之后，香港特区政府决定，在未来征收860公顷棕地用于住房建设，这对香港的土地供给来说是一针强心剂。

Then, what about flats?

土地有了，然后房屋呢？

Data from the city's Transport and Housing Bureau shows that, in the face of ever tighter private housing supply, the public sector plans to accelerate the construction of 9,100 subsidized flats for sale, combined with 21,000 rental units, every year from 2020 to 2030.

香港运输与房屋局的数据显示，在私有部门房屋供给日益紧张的情况下，公共部门计划在2020到2030年间，每年加快建造9100户补贴出售住房和21000户公租房。

This is a significant increase on the annual supply of 2,100 subsidized sale flats and 12,900 rental units between 2010 and 2019.

相比2010到2019年间，平均每年2100户补贴出售住房和12900户公租房的数量来说，提升着实显著。

Finally, in terms of the barriers to home ownership faced by young people, a new Starter Homes project was initiated in 2019, as a supplement to the existing Home Ownership Scheme.

最后，在解决年轻人的购房壁垒问题上，一项新的首购房项目在2019年正式启动，以此补充旧的自有住房购买框架。

Under the old scheme, applicants aged below 30 have much lower priority in the allocation of new flats than their older competitors. Legislative Council research shows that in 2017, young people accounted for almost half of the applicants, but secured only 14 percent of the flats.

在旧框架下，30岁以下购房申请者通常需要排在年长的申请者之后。根据香港立法会的研究数据，在2017年，30岁以下年轻人总共占了旧框架下购房申请者的一半，但却只成功购得了所有新房的14%。

Under the Starter Homes project, however, new flats will be allocated more proportionately to young applicants. The 2019 data suggests that the gap in successful buyers between the two age groups closed considerably to around 30 percentage points, compared to over 70 percentage points under the Home Ownership Scheme.

不同的是，在新的首购房项目中，新房将会更加成比例地分配给年轻申购者。2019年的数据显示，以30岁为界的两个不同年龄组，其购房成功率的差别在新的首购房项目中，大幅压缩到了30个百分点左右。相比旧框架下的70多个百分点 ，变化显著。

The fact is, home ownership has wider implications for social stability and sense of belonging, as reflected in Hong Kong's strongest civil unrest in recent years.

事实上，公民自有住房对社会稳定和个人归属感影响深远。香港近年来最剧烈的社会动荡也能够充分说明这一点。

Against this backdrop, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam unveiled an ambitious plan in October to build a Northern Metropolis that could be home to 2.5 million Hong Kong residents.

正是在这样的背景下，香港特首林郑月娥于去年十月公布了香港北部都会区的建设计划，据悉有望解决250万香港人的住房需求。

This may be the moment Hong Kong started to turn the tide of home ownership.

到那时，香港的自有住房难题或将找到正确答案。