美论坛：芯片巨头台积电把芯片制造业务搬到美国,谁将受益?

全球芯片产业链的发展和国际分工，在某种程度上可以说是拜美国的控制欲“所赐”。然而，一个技术进步迭代如此之快、全球产业分工如此精密的产业在经历了几十年的蓬勃发展后还能完全因为一家之言而控制决定么？就好比种下一棵树木的种子后，想要控制这棵树上每一根枝杈的生长角度和走势、每一片叶子的形状，这现实吗？

现在，美国意识到，半导体行业“这棵大树”的长势似乎超出了自己的控制，他开始强扭“枝叶”，甚至不惜把“树根”都挖出来带走。越来越多的台积电工程师正陆续搭乘专机飞往美国亚利桑那州。在那里，有一个台积电斥资400亿美元新建的芯片制造厂的项目，这一项目计划量产目前最先进的3纳米制程芯片。这个举动也是引起了不少海外网友的讨论，在美国论坛Quora上就有网友发起这样的话题：在美国的压力下，台湾芯片巨头台积电(TSMC)将把最先进的芯片制造业务搬到美国亚利桑那州，这将如何损害台地区的经济并扰乱全球芯片供应链?谁将从这件事中受益? 不少海外网友对此也发表了自己的意见，让我们来看看他们是怎么说的吧。

论坛的话题

新加坡网友的观点

Something you need to know about semiconductor manufacturing is that NO two pieces of equipment are identical at the nanometer precision even if both machines have the same part number! Thus, even within TSMC in Twd, if they want to bring up a second production line using the same recipe and equipment of the same part numbers from the original line, it would still take ONE TO TWO YEARS to calibrate this new line before it is ready!

关于半导体制造，您需要了解的一点是，即使两台机器具有相同的部件号，也没有两台设备在纳米精度上是相同的！ 因此，即使在台湾的台积电内部，如果他们想从原来的生产线上使用相同的配方和相同零件编号的设备来建立第二条生产线，仍然需要一到两年的时间来校准这条新生产线，然后才能投入使用。 准备好！

If the Arizona fab is depending on Twd for technology transfer, it will be at least years behind wherever the recipe was originally developed. By the time 3nm production is brought up online there, the Twd branch will be at 1nm or smaller. Arizona will simply be a legacy production line.

如果亚利桑那州的晶片厂依赖台湾的技术转让，它将至少落后于最初开发配方的地方几年。到3纳米生产线上线时，台湾分公司将生产1纳米或更小的产品。亚利桑那只是一条传统的生产线。

For Arizona to be advanced as Twd, the entire R&D team has to be immigrated to the U.S. to develop the technology right in Arizona instead. This is easier said than done. For starters, not everyone wants to leave Twd for the U.S. For a successful tech company there, its workers often expect an annual bonus larger than their salary. There is no such a culture in the U.S. Further, TSMC is the tip of the iceberg.

亚利桑那州要像台湾一样先进，整个研发团队必须移民到美国，在亚利桑那州开发技术。说起来容易做起来难。首先，并不是所有人都想离开台湾去美国。对于一家成功的台湾科技公司来说，员工通常希望获得比工资更高的年终奖。在美国没有这样的文化。此外，台积电只是冰山一角。

It has 100s of world-class suppliers underneath it. For these suppliers to support a team of engineers and scientists across the ocean wouldn’t be as efficient as they are next door. If you ever work with them, you would know how intense and impatient they are. When they call, you better pick up the phone no matter how bad the timing is and jump on his issues immediately.

它拥有数百家世界级的供应商。对于这些供应商来说，跨越大洋支持一个工程师和科学家团队的效率不会像隔壁的供应商那样高。如果你曾经和他们一起工作过，你就会知道他们有多紧张和不耐烦。当他们打电话来的时候，不管时间有多糟糕，你最好接起电话，立即解决他的问题。

If you ignore him for a few hours, the matter will be on your boss’ desk! No pain, no gain. A company doesn’t become the best in the world for no reason. Even Intel isn’t in its rearview mirror. Why would anyone want to work in such a high-pressure environment? Remember I said the bonus can be bigger than your salary?

如果你不理他几个小时，这件事就会摆在你老板的办公桌上!一分耕耘一分收获。一家公司不会无缘无故地成为世界上最好的。甚至连英特尔(Intel)也没有出现在它的后视镜中。为什么会有人愿意在这样高压的环境下工作呢?还记得我说过奖金可以超过工资吗?

Would the staff at the Arizona plant be willing to subject themselves to this kind of pressure cooker work environment, especially when an American bonus is only a fraction instead of mutlple of a person’s salary? I’m not talking about stock options, in which the value depends on your LUCK!

亚利桑那州工厂的员工愿意忍受这种高压锅般的工作环境吗?尤其是在美国的奖金只是一个人工资的一小部分而不是几倍的情况下?我说的不是股票期权，它的价值取决于你的运气!

I see it as a win-win for both Twd and the U.S. Twd has limited resources. Semiconductor manufacturing uses enormous water and electricity, which the twr government may not be able to supply sufficiently to meet TSMC’s future expansion, especially with greenwash on the rise and alternative energy still struggling to meet the demand. It’s a win for the U.S. too because not every chip has to be built using the latest technology. For aerospace, military and automotive, where MATURE, ie. very OLD, technology is underscored, even 3nm is an overkill. In case you wonder if the military uses old technology, why wouldn’t all countries have advanced military equipment? Keep in mind that it is a complete system, not each individual part, that determines the overall performance.

我认为这对美态都是双赢的。台资源有限。 半导体制造使用大量的水和电，台可能无法提供足够的水和电来满足台积电未来的扩张，尤其是在绿色漂浮和替代能源仍在努力满足需求的情况下。 这对美国来说也是一场胜利，因为并非每个芯片都必须使用最新技术制造。 对于航空航天、军事和汽车，成熟的地方，即。 非常古老，强调技术，即使是 3nm 也是矫枉过正。 如果你想知道如果军队使用旧技术，为什么不是所有国家都有先进的军事装备？ 请记住，决定整体性能的是一个完整的系统，而不是每个单独的部分。

The table has turned. I don’t think the twr would complain if they are now the brain and the Americans are the lower-skilled laborers. Haha. By the way, for those who are not in semiconductors, manufacturing a chip is MORE difficult than designing it! For example, as a designer, I can easily *specify* placing one circuit 3 nm from the next, but I certainly wouldn’t know how to do it without shorting them out! A virus is 100 nm.

形势发生了变化。我不认为台湾人会抱怨，如果他们现在是大脑，而美国人是低技能的劳动者。哈哈。顺便说一下，对于那些不是半导体行业的人来说，制造芯片比设计芯片更难!例如，作为一名设计师，我可以很容易地“指定”将一个电路与下一个电路相距3纳米，但我肯定不知道如何在不短路的情况下做到这一点!病毒的波长为100纳米。

3 nm is 33 times smaller than a virus! Further, though the manufacturing equipment is made by Amerian or Dutch firms such as Applied Material or ASML, it doesn’t mean anyone who can buy this equipment is competitive. This is because *NO ONE* uses the standard cookbooks from these manufacturers. TSMC, Samsung, Intel, etc. all have to develop their own proprietary processes. An easy analogy is though I can buy the same oven used by a world-famous chef, it doesn’t mean I can bake award-winning cookies because that chef has his own secret recipes, but I follow the standard cookbook that comes with the oven.

3纳米比病毒小33倍!此外，尽管制造设备是由美国或荷兰公司制造的，如应用材料公司或阿斯麦公司，但这并不意味着任何能够购买这些设备的人都有竞争力。这是因为*没有人*使用这些制造商的标准配方。台积电、三星、英特尔等都必须开发自己的专有工艺。打个简单的比方，虽然我可以买到世界著名厨师使用的烤箱，但这并不意味着我可以烤出获奖的饼干，因为那个厨师有他自己的秘密配方，但我遵循了烤箱附带的标准配方。

美国旧金山网友的观点

Oh how wonderful it is to have your stupid politicians determine your national destiny. Everything is assured to meet its disastrous end. In short, Biden strong-armed TSMC to set up shop in Arizona in order to be able to claim that he’s bringing chip manufacturing back to the U.S.

哦，让你们愚蠢的政客决定你们国家的命运是多么美妙啊。一切都注定会有灾难性的结局。简而言之，拜登强迫台积电在亚利桑那州设厂，以便能够宣称他将把芯片制造业带回美国

China as the world’s largest consumer of chip is the industry’s existential market. Prohibiting TSMC from selling to China is dooming the company to bankruptcy. So is the U.S. chip industry as U.S. tech companies are also prohibited to sell to China.

中国作为全球最大的芯片消费国，是该行业存在的市场。禁止台积电向中国大陆销售产品将使该公司注定破产。美国芯片行业也是如此，因为美国科技公司也被禁止向中国出售产品。

In the meantime, this buys the luxury of all the time China needs to catch up on producing the next generation 2 nm chips (or even sooner than expected) because the U.S. took care of taking out the competition and once TSMC fails, ASML either have to sell to China its machine or they will fail as well. Its always good to have the fools competing against you.

与此同时，这为中国赶上生产下一代2纳米芯片(甚至比预期更早)赢得了所有时间，因为美国已经解决了竞争，一旦台积电失败，阿斯麦要么不得不把机器卖给中国，要么他们也会失败。有傻瓜和你竞争总是好的。

英国网友的观点

U.S. president Joe Biden was quick to applaud TSMC’s move, calling it “the largest foreign investment in the history” of Arizona. A few moments later, he added, “American manufacturing is back, folks.”

美国总统拜登很快对台积电的举动表示赞赏，称这是亚利桑那州“历史上最大的外国投资”。过了一会儿，他还说了，“各位，美国制造业回来了。”

But is it? We will consider that question below. For now, we can acknowledge that the president called the 3 nanometre chips a potential game changer, meaning they could alter what some of the most common or most complex technologies might be capable of doing. By now, we are well aware that improvements in chips mean better smartphones, washing machines, AI and more.

但真的是这样吗?我们将在下面考虑这个问题。现在，我们可以承认总统称3纳米芯片是一个潜在的游戏规则改变者，这意味着它们可以改变一些最常见或最复杂的技术可能能够做的事情。到目前为止，我们都很清楚，芯片的改进意味着更好的智能手机、洗衣机、人工智能等。

The White House has used the CHIPS and Science Act for obvious political purposes. As CNN noted, [President] “Biden has been visiting communities where companies like TSMC … have announced new investments since the passage of the law this summer.” In other words, the administration is hoping that staged events — often with eager local media agencies basking in the glory of a presidential visit and not asking difficult questions — will lead Americans to conclude that, well, “American manufacturing is back, folks.”In fact, it might not be.

白宫利用芯片和科学法案达到明显的政治目的。正如CNN所指出的那样，“拜登一直在访问一些团体，自今年夏天法律通过以来，台积电等公司已经宣布了新的投资。”换句话说，政府希望精心策划的活动——通常是热切的当地媒体机构享受着总统访问的荣耀，而不是提出棘手的问题——会让美国人得出这样的结论，好吧，伙计们，美国制造业回来了。事实上，可能并非如此。

美国加州网友的观点

I heard some perspectives on this issue from several Chinese language podcasts. From what they’re saying, TSMC had to build that fab in Arizona, or else the Americans will kill their company.

我从几个中文播客中听到了一些关于这个问题的观点。从他们所说的来看，台积电必须在亚利桑那州建厂，否则美国人会“拿捏”他们的公司

Because the core technology itself is still American, and there is a lot of leverage the Americans have on many twr figures within this industry. It won’t really disrupt tw’s economy and the global supply chain to a point of no return…because they’ve carefully balance being able to continue doing business with the Mainland in some form.

因为核心技术本身仍然是美国的，而且美国人对这个行业的许多台湾省人物有很大的影响力。它不会真正扰乱台湾省经济和全球供应链，使其无法回归……因为他们已经谨慎地平衡了继续以某种形式与大陆做生意的能力。

台积电创始人：张忠谋

Honestly, the ones really benefiting from this move is TSMC. Given enough time, they will kill Intel literally at their doorsteps.

老实说，真正从这一举动中受益的是台积电。只要有足够的时间，他们就能在家门口干掉英特尔。

马来西亚网友的观点

Well US is making a preparation for the eventuality thay is reunification of china. The US is dependent on twr fabs, so if Twd fall to the PRC the US will have a difficulty to obtain the chips.

美国正在为中国的统一做准备。美国依赖台湾省的晶圆厂，所以如果他们落入中国手中，美国将很难获得芯片。

Tws owner of the company also want to secure his safety and hia wealth so moving to america is a great choice for him. For china, it really doesn't matter at all, china is looking to develop its own chips independent from the US and Tw supply chain, this is one of the target for made in china 2025, but it clearly Will take longer to get there but china is making progress.

这家公司的台湾老板也想确保自己的安全和财富，所以搬到美国对他来说是一个很好的选择。对中国来说，这真的一点都不重要，中国正在寻求独立于美国和台供应链的芯片，这是中国制造2025的目标之一，但显然需要更长的时间才能实现，但中国正在取得进展。

Tsmc tw fab is kinda irrelevant to the whole issue of reunification because the company still rely on american technologies this is why they cant sell to Huawei now. So whether they're In china's hand or american hand or destroyed altogether is irrelevant to the discussion.

台积电的台晶圆厂与整个统一问题有点无关，因为该公司仍然依赖美国技术，这就是为什么他们现在不能卖给华为。所以他们是在中国手里还是在老美手里，还是被完全摧毁，这与讨论无关。

香港网友的观点

To certain extent it is the best solution and compromise for TSMC, twd government and the US.

在某种程度上，这是台积电、台湾和美国的最佳解决方案和妥协。

For the past few years, TSMC had reflected their concerns to the government that in order to expand their business and develop new facilities, they need new land which are relatively safe from earthquake and a guarantee for a stable electricity supply. The DDP administration can't provide what TSMC wants. Just in 2022, in order to maintain electricity supply to TSMC, several cities had to blackout for a few hours every week.

过去几年，台积电向政府反映了他们的担忧，为了扩大业务和开发新设施，他们需要新的土地，相对安全的地震和稳定的电力供应的保证。MJD无法提供台积电想要的东西。就在2022年，为了维持台积电的电力供应，几个城市不得不每周停电几个小时。

Lastly back to the question, the impact to global chip supply or chain of supply will not much be affected. If TSMC remains as a leader in chip designs and manufactures, a factory in Arizona is just easier for them to supply to the US market, though production cost might be higher and affected their profit ratio, but high end chips of 2 or 3nm should be expensive.

最后回到问题，对全球芯片供应或供应链的影响不会太大。如果台积电仍然是芯片设计和制造的领导者，亚利桑那州的工厂对他们来说更容易向美国市场供应，尽管生产成本可能更高，并影响他们的利润率，但2或3纳米的高端芯片应该很贵。

While the factories in tw, or even in PRC can still be making 7nm.or 14nm chips which might still be the main stream of chip applications for use in cars, home appliances, PCs.

而在台湾，甚至在中国大陆的工厂仍然可以生产7nm。或14nm芯片，这可能仍然是用于汽车、家用电器和个人电脑的芯片应用的主流。

美籍华裔的观点

That industry sector makes up 4% of tws economy, so no doubt it will hit them. The reason the US lost in semiconductor manufacturing was because of their system that demands instant gratification. In the begining of the 21st century, it would have cost between $1B to 1.25B to build a wafer fab, with a payback period of 6 to 8 years. Something US investors are not willing tolerate & would crucify any CEO who made that kind of investment decision.

该行业占台湾经济的4%，因此毫无疑问会受到冲击。美国在半导体制造业上失败的原因是他们的制度要求即时满足。在21世纪初，建造一座晶圆厂将耗资10亿至12.5亿美元，投资回收期为6至8年。这是美国投资者不愿意容忍的，任何做出这种投资决定的CEO都会被钉死在十字架上。

which is why most wafer fabs were built in countries with high saving rates (thus available investment funds), & a tolerence of longer payback periods. Which was why by then, 92% of global wafer fab capacity were in twd, Singapore & Israel. And semiconductor companies atrted going “Fabless”, Also, the direct labor content of the cost of goods sold in those semiconductor was so low that you can afford to pay US type wages & keep those manufacturing jobs in the US. But the greedy in the US decided to let the industry & the manufactring jobs go for the sake of their wallets.

这就是为什么大多数晶圆厂都建在高储蓄率(因此有可用的投资资金)的国家，并且能够承受较长的回收期。这就是为什么到那时，全球92%的晶圆厂产能位于台湾、新加坡和以色列。半导体公司试图走向“无晶圆厂”，而且，这些半导体产品销售成本的直接劳动力含量非常低，你可以支付美国式的工资，并将这些制造业工作岗位留在美国。但贪婪的美国人为了自己的钱包，决定让这个行业和制造业的工作机会流失。

So this move of getting TSMC to Arizona is not something done by the wealthy US investors but done with tax payer’s money. It’s another case similar to the 2008 global financial crisis, where the wealthy & greedy nearly brought the global economy down, & it was the governments & tax payers who had to bail them out.

因此，把台积电搬到亚利桑那州的举动不是由富有的美国投资者做的，而是用纳税人的钱做的。这是另一个类似于2008年全球金融危机的案例，富人和贪婪的人几乎把全球经济拖垮，而政府和纳税人不得不拯救他们。

So the question is whether the system in the US could sustain such an industry or would you just have to keep using tax-payers money to keep those wafer fabs going & innovating so they coud handle the newer & more complex chips?

所以问题是，美国的系统是否能够维持这样一个行业，或者你只需要继续使用纳税人的钱来保持这些晶圆厂的运行和创新，以便他们能够处理更新和更复杂的芯片?