理事黄根成：全球联手应对是战胜疫情的关键

北京时间2020年5月8日上午，博鳌亚洲论坛成功举办《亚洲经济展望与一体化进程2020报告》线上发布会暨“疫情下亚洲发展前景与挑战研讨会”。论坛理事、新加坡原副总理黄根成到会并进行总结发言。

黄根成梳理了疫情对世界经济的冲击及各国政府面临的挑战，并针对这些问题做出了政策建议。他在发言中始终强调国际合作和联合行动的重要性，并掷地有声地表示，“孤立主义会给我们所有人带来更加糟糕的世界”、“通过保持开放和互通，我们能在这场危机过后变得比之前更加强大、更有韧性”。

本次研讨会及主旨演讲的语言为英文，在此分享双语版本的演讲实录，以飨读者。

博鳌亚洲论坛理事、新加坡原副总理黄根成

在博鳌亚洲论坛2020旗舰报告线上首发会暨疫情下

亚洲发展前景与挑战研讨会上的总结发言

（全文）

（2020年5月8日）

非常感谢！下午好！周小川副理事长，李保东秘书长，感谢你们邀请我参加这场旗舰报告首发会研讨会。

我们是在非常不同寻常的时间、非常不同寻常的环境下开会。线上会议现在已经成了国内会议和跨国会议的常态。

抑制新冠病毒及其影响

新冠肺炎疫情的传播速度和影响范围及其对亚洲和全球的影响表明我们人类是多么脆弱。疫情也反映出在我们的“地球村”里人们的相互依存和相互联系。

新冠肺炎疫情是人类在过去一百年里面临的最严重的卫生紧急事件，全球的感染者已经超过了350万人，死亡人数超过25万。这些数据揭露了残酷的事实——疫情不分国界，跨越了国籍、社会经济地位、种族和信仰。

目前我们对这种高度传染的病毒了解甚少。关于病毒本身，我们有赖于流行病家和科学家做进一步的发现，让未来的历史学家将病毒载入史册。现在确切地定义疫情会传播多广还为时过早。每个国家都将有时间完成疫情后的回顾与反思，从中吸取经验教训，为下一次疫情做准备。

对所有政府来说，目前其中心任务就是控制疫情带来的影响，保护公民的生命。各国政府都已经采取了断然的措施，来保护人民的生命和健康。

然而，由于这些措施，几乎所有国家的内部经济活动以及与其经济伙伴之间的经济活动都受到了阻碍，人们的生计受到了影响，导致全球的企业和劳动者处于混乱之中。在公共卫生和经济活动之间很难做出取舍。

严格的疫情防控手段严重影响了很多行业，给我们的经济体带来了巨大的代价。旅行限制使旅游和航空业遭受巨大损失；工厂即使被允许开工生产，其生产线也被迫仅在正常产能的一部分的水平上运行。因为人们待在家里并削减开支，社会总需求大幅下降。

现在，尽管情况出现好转迹象，一些国家开始逐渐放开疫情限制措施，但要全面复苏未来仍还有很长的路要走。各国政府已经计划拿出几万亿美元的救助资金，以保住就业岗位和企业的存活。然而这些措施可能也无法避免全球经济衰退。国际货币基金组织预测2020年全球经济下滑3%，世界银行对亚洲经济前景的展望也已大大调低，一些东盟国家有可能陷入经济衰退，导致更多人口陷入贫困。

过去几个月来新冠疫情带给我们的几乎全是坏消息，唯一的好消息是，如中国、新西兰、越南等国的情况所已展示的，疫情是可控的。在我们面前的关键挑战是，这场全球疫情是敲响了警钟，促使国际社会一起行动起来对抗共同的敌人并建立更加安全的世界，还是在世界上那些已经受到泛滥的民族主义困扰的地方加剧逆全球化？

在这个关键时刻，非常重要的是我们不能关起大门来向内转，此时全球共同行动与新冠肺炎作战和在疫情之后实现经济复苏至关重要。

保持全球供应链的互联互通

统一的全球供应链的中断会进一步加剧我们正在经历的卫生和经济危机。各国应该保持开放和互联的供应链，以保证必需品和服务的自由流通。这包括了正在抗疫的国家所急需的医疗物资和装备，以及包括农产品在内的其他必需品的流通。各国同时应当避免实施出口限制和禁止出口、关税和非关税壁垒，尤其是针对必需品的。为支持全球供应链的活力与完整，保证航空和港口以及货运服务等关键基础设施和服务保持开业也是重要的。

二十国集团领导人已发布声明，显示他们共同承诺对抗新冠疫情并保证必需品和服务继续跨境流动。来自东盟国家、东盟+中日韩，以及东盟的其他对话伙伴（如欧盟和美国）的领导人，已联合呼吁加大区域和全球的合作，加强应对疫情的努力。新加坡和其他十个国家也已发表了联合部长声明，重申我们致力于保证疫情下供应链的互联互通。

加强区域内和区域间的经济和金融合作

随着全球衰退风险逼近，我们比以往任何时候都需要区域和全球合作来应对疫情带给我们的挑战，确保金融市场不受重创。我们在区域和国际层面所采取的联合努力，会使得我们在疫情过后更加强大。

对于每一个经济体，我们需要采取措施保证金融稳定、解决短期流动性需求以及提供信贷与支持。全球来讲，国际货币基金组织的危机应对计划和世界银行集团以及区域开发银行的紧急应对计划提供的支持是至关重要的。亚投行推出规模100亿美元的危机恢复基金也很及时。

面对未来，各国必须与国际货币基金组织和其他国际金融机构合作，来确保更有韧性的金融架构来实现金融稳定，并出台促进增长的政策，准备应对今后的冲击。各国政府应确保我们的财政政策能够激励增长和创新，加速数字化进程。各国政府应加大联合监控的力度，防范目前的脆弱性发展为下一场危机。

结语

女士们、先生们，只有通过团结、合作，国际社会才能够战胜疫情，保卫我们的未来。至关重要的是各国政府联合应对。

全球化帮助很多人提高了生活水平，然而同时也加强了贫富差距和财富不均，这是导致某些国家转向向内看并拒绝全球化的根本原因之一。

然而这一问题的解决方案并不是保护主义和孤立主义，而是公平的社会再分配政策，来确保经济增长能被所有人公平分享。我们知道，新冠疫情及其带来的经济危机会对全球化产生影响。各国自然而然会担心全球化所带来的风险，会更加重视加强自身能力以减轻对他国的依赖。国与国之间的交往可能更加讲求实际，不动感情。我们所熟知的那个世界在疫情后将变得不同。

但是我们应当彻底抵制这种放弃全球化的趋势，因为孤立主义会给我们所有人带来更加糟糕的世界。

疫情证明我们互相依存，疫情不是对全球化的指责。疫情凸显国与国之间需要更多而不是更少的合作。找到恰当的平衡并不容易，但是我相信，通过保持开放和互通，我们能在这场危机过后变得比之前更加强大、更有韧性。我们应该记住，没有一个国家能真正安全，除非整个世界是安全的。但我们一定会克服这场危机。

与此同时，我祝愿大家安全、健康！非常感谢！

Concluding Remarks by BFA Director and

Former Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore Wong Kan Seng

at the Launch of the BFA 2020 Flagship Report & Symposium

on Asian Development Prospects and Challenges

under the Pandemic

（Full Text）

(May 8, 2020)

Thank you very much!

Good afternoon,

BFA Vice Chairman Mr Zhou Xiaochuan,

BFA Secretary-General Mr Li Baodong,

Distinguished participants,

I thank you for inviting me to participate at today’s launch of the BFA 2020 Flagship Report, and the Symposium on Asian Development Prospects and Challenges under the Pandemic.

We are meeting in very unusual times, under very unusual circumstances. Meeting online has now become the norm for in-country and cross border meetings.

CONTAINING THE VIRUS COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT

The speed and scope of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact in Asia and around the world show how vulnerable we humans are. It also reflects the interconnectedness and interdependence of our “global village”.

COVID-19 is the gravest public health crisis that mankind has ever faced in the last 100 years. The number of confirmed cases globally has crossed the grim milestone of more than 3.5 million cases and 250,000 deaths. These statistics underscore the cruel reality that COVID-19 has no regard for national borders, nor does it discriminate against nationalities, social-economic classes, race or religion.

There is so little we understand about this highly contagious virus. We will leave it to epidemiologists and scientists to uncover more about the virus, and let historians write about it in the future. It is too soon to make any definitive determination of the virus spread. Each country will have time to do its post-crisis review and learn lessons from it, so as to prepare for the next pandemic.

The central mission of all governments is to contain the virus’ impact and to protect and preserve lives of their citizens. Governments have adopted drastic measures to protect the people’s health and well-being.

But as a result, practically all economic activities within the countries and with their economic counterparts have been choked. Livelihoods have been upended, causing chaos to businesses and workers across the world. It is a very tough trade-off to make between public health and economic activity.

Stringent containment measures have severely affected many sectors and imposed significant costs to our economies. Travel restrictions have led to massive losses for the tourism and airline industries. Production lines are forced to operate at a fraction of normal capacities, if the factories are allowed to open at all. Aggregate demand has fallen drastically as people stay home and curtail spending.

Now, even as countries begin to gradually lift containment measures when the situation shows signs of improvement, it will still be a long road ahead to complete recovery. Governments around the world have planned to spend trillions of US dollars to keep workers on their jobs and businesses alive. Still these stimulus measures may not prevent a world recession.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that global real GDP growth in 2020 is estimated to fall to minus 3 percent. The World Bank’s growth outlook for Asia has been sharply downgraded, with some ASEAN Member States potentially falling into recessions that could push more people into poverty.

We have heard nothing but bad news about COVID-19 in the last few months. The only good news is that it can be contained, as countries like China, New Zealand and Vietnam have shown.

The key challenge in front of us is whether this global pandemic is a wake-up call for the international community to act in concert to fight this common enemy and to build a safer world, or to accelerate de-globalization in parts of the world already beset by raging nationalism?

It is very important at this juncture that we do not shut our doors and turn inwards, when collective global action is crucial to combatting COVID-19 and to our post-pandemic recovery.

MAINTAINING GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN CONNECTIVITY

Disruptions to our integrated global supply chains will exacerbate the health and economic crises that we are experiencing. Countries should maintain open and connected supply chains, to enable the flow of essential goods and services. These include the flow of medical supplies and equipment that are urgently needed by countries battling COVID-19, as well as the flow of other essential goods, including agricultural products.

Countries should also refrain from imposing export restrictions and prohibitions, tariffs, and non-tariff barriers, particularly on essential goods. To support the viability and integrity of global supply chains, it is also important to ensure critical infrastructure and services, such as air and seaports and freight services, remain open.

G20 leaders have issued statements signalling their joint commitment to combat COVID-19 and to ensure the continued flow of essential goods and services across borders. Leaders from ASEAN, ASEAN Plus Three – China, Japan and the ROK – and other ASEAN Dialogue Partners like the EU and the US have jointly called for greater regional and international cooperation and strengthened efforts to combat COVID-19. Singapore and ten other countries have also issued a Joint Ministerial Statement to affirm our commitment to ensure supply chain connectivity, amidst the COVID-19 situation.

ENHANCING INTER- AND INTRA- REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL COOPERATION

As we head towards a global recession, more than ever, we need regional and global cooperation to ride out the challenges arising from COVID-19, and ensure that financial markets do not seize up. Our collective efforts at the regional and international levels will better position us to emerge stronger thereafter.

In each of our economies, we need measures to ensure financial stability, address short-term liquidity needs, and provide credit and support. Globally, support from the IMF’s crisis response package, and the emergency response packages by the World Bank Group and Regional Development Banks are critical. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s (AIIB) introduction of the COVID-19 Crisis Recovery Facility worth US$10 billion is also timely.

Looking ahead, countries must work with the IMF and other international financial institutions to ensure a more resilient financial architecture for financial stability, and enact growth-friendly policies and prepare for future shocks.

Governments should ensure that our fiscal policies encourage growth and innovation, and accelerate digitalization. They should redouble efforts on integrated surveillance to head off vulnerabilities, before they grow into the next crisis.

CONCLUSION

Ladies and gentlemen, only with solidarity and cooperation can the international community prevail over the pandemic and safeguard our future. It is critical for governments to mount a united response.

globalization has helped to raise standards of living for many. At the same time, it exacerbated the rich-poor gap and wealth disparity, which is one of the root causes turning some countries to look inwards and reject globalization.

The solution is not protectionism and isolationism, but equitable social redistribution policies to ensure that economic growth is shared fairly by all. COVID-19 and the resulting economic crisis will have implications for globalization as we know it. Countries will naturally become wary of the risks of globalization and want to strengthen national capabilities to reduce dependence on others. A more hard-headed internationalism may arise. The world as we know it before COVID-19 will not be the same.

But we should resist the urge to discard globalization completely, because isolationism will result in a poorer world for all of us.

The pandemic is proof of our interdependence, not an indictment of globalization. It highlights the need for more cooperation among countries, not less.

It will not be easy to find the right balance, but I am confident that by staying open and connected, we can emerge from this crisis stronger and more resilient than before. We should bear in mind that no country can truly be safe until the world is safe. But we will get over this crisis.

Meanwhile, I wish all of you stay safe and stay healthy.

Thank you very much!

立足亚洲 面向世界

传递论坛最新动态 促进亚洲深度合作

全球重要对话的传达者 亚洲共同发展的瞭望者