经济学人精读 | Break the glass（上） 新兴市场一片混乱

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原文选自《The Economist》0411期 撰文：猫斯图

中文导读

自2020年新型冠状病毒疫情爆发以来，全球贸易下滑、世界经济受到严重冲击，诸多国家不得不向IMF寻求帮助。面对数以亿计的资产退出资本市场舞台，IMF必须作出及时的反应以帮助贫穷国家渡过难关，因此不得不采取三管齐下的方法应对此次危机。

第1段

Emerging markets are battling a financial crisis as well as a public-health emergency. Since late January foreign investors, desperate to shed risk, have been withdrawing their cash from poor countries. At the same time falling global trade, depressed commodities prices and vanishing tourists have put export revenues, and hence the supply of foreign currency, into free fall. This has left many countries struggling to pay for imports and to service their dollar-denominated debts, let alone fund emergency health or economic programmes. Over 90 countries have approached the IMF, the lender of last resort for governments, to ask for help.

译文：新兴市场正在应对金融危机和公共卫生紧急状况。自1月底以来，渴望摆脱风险的外国投资者一直从贫穷国家提取现金。与此同时，全球贸易下滑、大宗商品价格下跌和游客减少，导致出口收入以及外汇供应大幅下降。这使许多国家难以支付进口费用和偿还以美元计价的债务，更不用说为紧急保健或经济方案提供资金支持。有90多个国家向作为政府最后贷款人的国际货币基金组织寻求帮助。

词汇解析

• denominate vt. ①to express an amount of money using a particular unit 以（某种货币）为单位 dollar-denominated debts以美元计价的债务 ② ~ sb (as) sth ( formal ) to give sth a particular name or description 将…命名为；称…为 例：These payments are denominated as ‘fees’ rather than ‘salary’. 付出的这几笔款子称为“费用”而不是“工资”

• let alone：更不必说 to say nothing of not to mention--used especially to emphasize the improbability of a contrasting example.

• lender of last resort：最后贷款人，即在出现危机或者流动资金短缺的情况时，负责应付资金需求的机构（通常是中央银行）。而这里lender of last resort 意为IMF作为国际最后贷款人，随着经济金融全球化程度的加深，国与国之间的资本与货币一体化，金融危机超越国别的限制在世界范围内传播。IMF作为危机的借款者，更像一个信用合作组织，通过发行基金份额建立资金的蓄水池，再向成员国贷款；作为危机的管理者，它可以组织和协调危机中的成员国，募集更多的资金。

第2段

The fund will need to respond on an unprecedented scale. The $96bn investors have already withdrawn from emerging-market stocks and bonds dwarfs past capital outflows, according to the Institute of International Finance, an industry group. So far this year the Brazilian real, the Mexican peso and the South African rand have lost nearly a quarter of their value against the dollar. Though few countries have sounded the alarm in public, the fund estimates that emerging markets will need at least $2.5trn over the course of the pandemic.

译文：该基金组织需要对以前所未有的规模作出反应。据行业集团国际金融研究所的数据显示，拥有960亿资产的投资者已经退出新兴股票和债券市场，相比之下这让过去的资本外流相形见绌。到目前为止，今年巴西雷亚尔、墨西哥比索和南非兰特对美元贬值了近四分之一。虽然很少有国家公开发出警报，但该基金估计，新兴市场在这一大流行病期间至少需要2.5万亿美元。

词汇解析

• dwarf n. 侏儒，矮子；（传说或神话里的）小矮人；矮星adj. 矮小的；矮生的v. （使）变矮；使显得矮小 这里意为过去的资本外流与拥有960亿资产的投资者近期退出资本市场比较相形见绌

• over the course of 在······的过程中/随着时间的流淌

第3段

Some of that help is coming from America’s Federal Reserve. It is running “swap lines” with a select few central banks, which have so far borrowed about $400bn while posting their own currencies as collateral. The Fed is also allowing most central banks to temporarily exchange any Treasuries that they hold for dollars. But among emerging-market central banks only Brazil, Mexico, Singapore and South Korea are included in the swap lines, and few poor countries have a ready supply of Treasuries. So most of the burden will fall on the IMF which, unlike the Fed, cannot create dollars at will. The fund says it has about $1trn on tap, about a fifth of which is already committed. Even this may not be enough for the job if large economies like Nigeria, South Africa or Turkey join the legions of small countries seeking help. Another problem is that a big chunk of the fund’s resources is borrowing from its members that must be reauthorised this year, creating uncertainty.

译文：其中一些帮助来自美国联邦储备委员会。它正在与少数几家央行进行“互换交易”，这些央行迄今已借了约4000亿美元，同时将本国货币作为抵押品。美联储还允许大多数中央银行暂时交换它们持有的美国国债。但纵观这些新兴市场中央银行，只有巴西、墨西哥、新加坡和韩国被纳入互换额度，很少有穷国有现成的国债供应。因此，大部分负担将落在国际货币基金组织身上，而国际货币基金组织与美联储不同，不能随意创造美元。该基金组织表示，目前约有1万亿美元，其中约五分之一已经承诺。如果像尼日利亚、南非或土耳其这样的大经济体加入小国军团寻求帮助，即使这样做也不足以胜任这项工作。另一个问题是，该基金组织中很大一部分资金借款于其成员国，今年必须取得重新授权，这就造成了不确定性。

词汇解析

• collateral n.( finance 财 ) property or sth valuable that you promise to give to sb if you cannot pay back money that you borrow 抵押物；担保品 adj.( formal ) connected with sth else, but in addition to it and less important 附属的；附加的；附带的

• Treasuries 国债、国库券Treasuries that they hold for dollars 美国国债 也可以用US Treasuries表示 【近义词】bond 债券 yuan-denominated bonds 人民币债券

• at will 随意，任意 【近义词】at one's option, at liberty

• legion n.①军团 the French Foreign Legion 法国外籍军团 ②( formal ) a large number of people of one particular type 大量，大批（某类型的人）legions of photographers 众多的摄影师 adj. [ not before noun ] ( formal ) very many 很多；极多 例：The medical uses of herbs are legion. 草本植物的医药效用数不胜数。

• chunk n. ①a thick solid piece that has been cut or broken off sth 厚块；厚片；大块 例：a chunk of cheese/masonry 一块厚厚的奶酪╱砖石 ②( informal ) a fairly large amount of sth 相当大的量 例：I've already written a fair chunk of the article. 我已写出文章的大部分。

第4段

These funds must be secured. America, to its credit, has already approved its share, but the biggest, richest members need to provide still more. The IMF should then follow a three-pronged approach to fighting the crisis.

译文：这些资金必须得到保障。值得称道的是，美国已经批准了它的份额，但最大、最富有的成员还需要提供更多。然后，国际货币基金组织应该采取三管齐下的方法来应对危机。