Economists have always been fond of(喜欢) Uber. Its willingness to battle incumbents(现有企业), use of technology to match(匹配) buyers and sellers, and embrace(拥抱) of surge(激增的) pricing to balance supply(供给) and demand(需求) make the ride-hailing(骑车致敬) giant a dismal(令人沮丧的) scientist's dream.
经济学家们一直对优步情有独钟,一直以来,优步都热衷于挑战老牌企业的地位,运用先进的技术手段,为购买者和销售者沟通彼此的桥梁,并通过提升价格,来平衡来谋求供求之间的平衡。优步的种种所作所为,使得这一共享单车产业的巨头,在某些科学家心中,无疑成为了一种令人倍感沮丧的未来图景
Steven Levitt, the author of the bestselling(畅销书) Freakonomics(魔鬼经济学), called it the embodiment(体现) of what the economists would like the economy to look like. But if economists subjected(使遭受) Uber and its competitors to a cost-benefit(成本效益的) analysis, they might not be so impressed(印象深刻的).
畅销书《魔鬼经济学》的作者史蒂文·莱维特称,优步的存在,恰恰体现了经济学家心目中,世界经济的理想图景。但是,如果经济学家们从成本效益的视角,去窥视优步及其竞争者所包含的秘密,尽管这些秘密最初看来平淡无奇。
This might surprise customers. A study in 2016 by researchers from Oxford University, the University of Chicago and Uber itself found sizeable(数额相当大的) benefits from ride-hailing (骑行租赁)services for consumers.
然而,最终的结果往往令消费者大吃一惊,2016年,优步携手牛津大学和芝加哥大学两所高校,共同对所经营的共享单车业务进行了一项调查,最终,研究人员惊讶的发现,共享单车服务竟为消费者带来了巨大的便利。
Using data from 48m Uber trips taken in four American cities in 2015, they estimated the difference between how much customers were willing to pay and their actual fare. Each $1 spent on Uberx rides generated a consumer surplus of $1.60.
2015年,曾有人在美国的四座城市中,总计480万名Uber单车的使用者进行了数据统计,而如今,研究人员就此评估,消费者在使用Uber共享单车时,预期消费与实际费用之间所存在差异程度。研究人员发现,在Uber共享单车上支出的每一美元,从理论上会为消费者带来带来1.6美元的盈余。
Across America, that surplus was estimated to be $6.8bn a year. Drivers also benefit. Few sign up for lack of anything else, as is true of some gig(小型演出) work.
而全美每年便因此产生68亿美元的盈余,即便是汽车司机,也同样得以从中收益。优步是如此的美妙,它所带来的益处,就如同一场小型演出一般真实,因而,没有人提出,其中有什么欠缺。
But against these benefits, there are costs to weigh(权衡). Far from reducing congestion by encouraging people to give up their cars, as many had hoped, ride-hailing(骑行租赁) seems to increase it.
但是,之于优步所带来的好处,其所带来的代价也同样值得我们认真考量。与许多人所想不同的是,普及共享单车完全不能促使人们减少乘车出行的次数,从而达到缓解拥堵的目的。
Bruce Schaller, a transport consultant(顾问), estimates that over half of all Uber and Lyft trips in big American cities would otherwise(原本) have been made on foot or by bike, bus, subway or train. He reckons that ride-hailing(骑行租赁服务) services add 2.8 vehicle miles of driving in those cities for every mile they subtract(减去).
正如担任交通顾问的布鲁斯·沙勒(Bruce Schaller)的预计的那样,在所有选择使用Uber和Lyft共享单车通勤的人中,有将近一半原本打算步行或骑车,或者搭乘公交,地铁,或者火车等公共交通工具的。因此,布鲁斯,在这些城市之中,人们每使用共享单代步一英里,便相当于同时增加了一英里的驾驶里程。
A new working paper by John Barrios of the University of Chicago and Yael Hochberg and Hanyi Yi of Rice(莱斯) University.spells out one deadly(致命地) consequence of this increase in traffic.
而来自芝加哥大学的约翰.巴里奥斯和来自莱斯大学的叶尔·霍希堡所进行的一项最新的研究,阐明了城市交通中共享单车使用量的增加,由此带来的严重后果。
Using data from the federal transport department, they find that the introduction(引入) of ride-sharing to a city is associated with an increase in vehicle-miles(汽车里程) travelled, petrol consumption and car registrations .and a 3.5% jump(增加) in fatal car accidents. At a national level, this translates into(转化为) 987 extra deaths a year.
通过使用联邦交通部门的数据,研究人员发现,将共享单车服务引入城市之中,由此将增加通勤所消耗的机动车行驶里程,以及油耗和车辆注册数量的增加,还会导致致命车祸发生的几率增加3.5%。并从全国的层面而言,将使得每年不幸死于车祸的人数,增加3.5%
What could be done to tip the balance back(扭转局势) to benefits overall(整体的)? Congestion pricing(拥挤定价) is the most direct solution, says Jonathan Hall of the University of Toronto. Several cities, including London, Stockholm(斯德哥尔摩) and Singapore, have moved in this direction, charging drivers for entering busy areas at peak hours. If ride-hailing firms(租车公司) tweaked(调整) their pricing to encourage carpooling, that would help, too.
那么,人们可以采取哪些措施,来平衡整体利益呢?来自多伦多大学的Jonathan Hall表示,征收拥堵费表示最直接的解决方案。包括伦敦,斯德哥尔摩,以及新加坡等大城市,已经开始按照这一思路,采取相关的措施,开始向高峰时段,驶入交通繁忙地带的司机,征收相关费用。因此,如果提供共享单车服务的公司,可以对单车的付费价格进行调整,从而鼓励人们更多地拼车出行,也许将使得拥挤的城市,得以宽松下来。